Ad Disclosure
March basketball is finally here, and while it’s not full-blown madness just yet, the action is heating up as we get set for conference tournaments right around the corner.
In the Big Ten, that means 3 games on Tuesday night — including 3 teams squarely on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament. Indiana is one of those, entering the evening on a 3-game winning streak with 4 wins in its last 5. One more win — against a good Oregon team — could solidify the Hoosiers in the Big Dance.
Meanwhile, Nebraska and Ohio State face each other with both squads looking to cling to their spot in the final field. The loser of that game will be in an uncomfortable spot heading into the end of the regular season and the Big Ten Basketball Tournament.
As we get set for Tuesday, here’s a glimpse at some of the best DFS picks available across the B1G:
Brice Williams, Nebraska — Lower than 2.5 assists (via Underdog)
Brice Williams is Nebraska’s leading assist man this season, but he averages just 2.8 per game. And considering the recent trajectory of the Huskers and facing an Ohio State team with good guard play, I can’t get on board with Williams racking up the assists all of a sudden.
Over the weekend, I took Williams and a less than 3.5 assists number, and that one paid off. He finished tied for the game-high with 21 points but had just 2 assists in a back-and-forth loss to Minnesota.
Going back to the dreadful performance vs. Michigan, Williams has exactly 2 assists in his last 74 minutes of game time. To be clear, a good bit of that is about his supporting cast, but it’s the reality of his recent numbers.
It might be a risky play considering Williams had 5 games with at least 4 assists in February, but it’s hard to overlook the recent shooting by the Huskers.
Braden Smith, Purdue — Higher than 31.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (via Sleeper)
Braden Smith has been more up-and-down for Purdue over the past month, but he’s able to impact the game in a variety of ways. That’s why he is probably still on track to take home the Big Ten Player of the Year award, and he gets a showdown against top NBA prospect Dylan Harper and Rutgers on Tuesday night.
Harper might scare off some players from taking the higher number for Smith, but I think it’s still a fair shot. For starters, this game is back in West Lafayette.
Prior to facing UCLA at home on Friday night, just 2 of Purdue’s previous 6 games were at home. It’s probably no coincidence that the 6-game stretch was one of the more volatile stretches for Smith’s consistency this season.
Revisiting that Friday matchup vs. the Bruins, Smith was ahead of the 31.5 combined number with 23 points, 8 assists and 3 rebounds. Being able to stay at home for a 2nd straight game and facing the struggling Scarlet Knights is the right recipe for a big game from Smith.
Oumar Ballo, Indiana — Higher than 18.5 Points+Rebounds (via Underdog)
Indiana is looking to ride a strong late-season push into the NCAA Tournament after riding the bubble through the middle of the season. Facing a talented Oregon squad and a top-notch big man in Nate Bittle, I expect the Hoosiers to ride Ballo coming off a comfortable blowout vs. Washington over the weekend.
For starters, do not evaluate the stat line produced by Ballo against the Huskies. He had just 7 points and 2 rebounds, but that’s because he was able to get a lot of rest with just 15 minutes of action in a blowout.
Ballo’s usage — with 20 points and 12 rebounds — in a close win over Penn State is more what I expect in a tough contest against the Ducks in Eugene.
In fact, every time Ballo has played at least 30 minutes since the start of January, he has eclipsed the combined 18.5 number for points and rebounds. That’s a 9-game stretch, and this is not the time for Ballo to rest with March Madness in focus.
Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.