ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranks every B1G team for returning production in 2022

As Big Ten teams work through the offseason and get set for spring practice, returning production will come into focus as teams look to the 2022 season.

Bill Connelly of ESPN+, and known for the SP+ projections, compiled the top returning production by team and ranked teams based on who’s coming back.

As always, the projections stem from three primary questions: How good has your team been recently? How well has it recruited? And perhaps most importantly,: Who returns from last year’s roster? … For decades, we have used returning starters as a proxy for measuring experience, mainly because we haven’t had anything better to use. But for a few years now, I’ve been attempting to expand how we measure returning production. The formula I have created shifts with each new year of data, but it’s based on what has the greatest impact on year-to-year improvement and regression.

Most notably, Connelly adjusts the formula each season. Here is this year’s formula:

• Percent of returning WR/TE receiving yards: 37% of the overall number
• Percent of returning QB passing yards: 29%
• Percent of returning OL snaps: 28%
• Percent of returning RB rushing yards: 6%
• Percent of returning tackles: 59%
• Percent of returning passes defensed: 28%
• Percent of returning tackles for loss: 8%
• Percent of returning sacks: 5%

Here are the rankings for all of the B1G teams:

14. Indiana
25. Ohio State
28. Iowa
41. Maryland
43. Michigan State
48. Purdue
51. Minnesota
55. Rutgers
67. Michigan
69. Northwestern
72. Penn State
85. Wisconsin
103. Nebraska
122. Illinois

Keith Farner

Keith Farner has written about college football for newspapers and web sites since 2005.