ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome of Alabama-Cincinnati CFP showdown

As people around the country get ready for Christmas, teams continue to prep for the College Football Playoff. Those semifinal games are set for New Year’s Eve.

While Michigan and Georgia will face off in the Orange Bowl, it will be No. 1 Alabama vs. No. 4 Cincinnati in the Cotton Bowl. The odds will definitely be against the Bearcats in this one.

Though Luke Fickell’s squad became the first team from a Group of 5 conference to make the Playoff, Nick Saban’s Crimson Tide will be heavily favored in the CFP. That view is echoed by ESPN’s Football Power Index.

According to the FPI, Alabama is given a 71.7% chance to win the game and advance to the National Championship Game. Alabama’s most recent game was a dominant SEC Championship win over then-No. 1 Georgia.

History is also on Alabama’s side in the matchup. No. 1 seeds in the Playoff semifinals are 5-2 along with Alabama being 3-1 in semifinal games as a No. 1 seed. However, the lone loss by the Crimson Tide in that scenario came to No. 4 Ohio State in 2014-15 season.

Can the Bearcats channel their inner Buckeyes with a monstrous upset, or will it be another episode of Crimson Tide dominance under Saban?

Paul Harvey

Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.