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ESPN’s FPI predicts outcome of every game on Ohio State’s 2024 schedule
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Ohio State is entering the 2024 season with huge expectations as it looks to get back to the College Football Playoff and compete for a national championship.
ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) has published game-by-game projections for Ohio State’s 2024 slate. The Buckeyes will face a 9-game conference schedule this year that includes a high-profile trip to Eugene to take on Oregon.
Here’s a breakdown of FPI’s win probabilities for every game on Ohio State’s schedule:
- Aug. 31: vs. Akron — 98.7%
- Sept. 7: vs. Western Michigan — 98.2%
- Sept. 21: vs. Marshall — 96.4%
- Sept. 28: at Michigan State — 91.5%
- Oct. 5: vs. Iowa — 87%
- Oct. 12: at Oregon — 34.5%
- Oct. 26: vs. Nebraska — 91.4%
- Nov. 2: at Penn State — 50.8%
- Nov. 9: vs. Purdue — 93.3%
- Nov. 16: at Northwestern — 87.8%
- Nov. 23: vs. Indiana — 94.6%
- Nov. 30: vs. Michigan — 74.2%
Add all those win probabilities up and you get a projected win total of 9.9 wins. Rounded to 10, that would likely be enough to get Ohio State into the College Football Playoff — but possibly not enough to earn a spot in the Big Ten title game.
That would surely be a disappointing outcome for many Buckeyes fans. Ohio State is entering the year as one of the favorites to win the national championship. The Buckeyes are +380 to win it all over at DraftKings, only trailing Georgia at +300. Ohio State’s regular-season win total has also been set at 10.5 with the over shaded to -150.
SPORTSBOOK
Ohio State is a favorite per FPI in all but 1 game this season: at Oregon. That matchup with the Ducks on Oct. 12 is likely to carry major implications for the Big Ten Championship Game — and thus the College Football Playoff.
Ohio State is also a slight favorite in what is a virtual toss-up against Penn State on Nov. 2. Ohio State has won 7 consecutive games in this series, with Penn State’s last win coming back in 2016 in State College.
Per FPI, the Buckeyes have at least 85% win equity in 9 of their 12 regular-season contests. Ohio State has a 74.2% chance to beat Michigan at home in the regular-season finale, per the model.
Ryan Day’s team will kick things off against Akron on Aug. 31.
Calling all Ohio residents! Looking for a sportsbook to join ahead of the 2024 season? Here’s a full breakdown of all the top OH sports betting apps that are currently on the market!
Spenser is the news manager at Saturday Road and covers college football across all Saturday Football brands.