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ESPN’s SP+ predicts Indiana’s chances of reaching a bowl game in 2022
By Michael Daly
Published:
ESPN’s SP+ gave Indiana an honest assessment of the team’s chances of reaching a bowl game in 2022.
The SP+ projected that Indiana had a 23% chance to make a bowl. Indiana would have to win at least 6 games to guarantee a bowl game bid.
The SP+ projections are updated and show IU with roughly a 23% of a bowl game, but as @ESPN_BillC stated: "A reminder that SP+ is still heavily based on preseason projections three weeks in". Having said that, it's not as though IU has been some dominant force. #iufb pic.twitter.com/5Hz6L7vAN2
— Punt John Punt (@PuntJohnPunt) September 19, 2022
The projection gave Indiana a 77% chance to miss a bowl game. It was broken down by the percentage probability that Indiana would finish with a certain record. The percentage to finish with either a 4-8 or a 5-7 record was 32%. Indiana is currently 3-0 and would need 3 more wins for the rest of the season to make a bowl game.
Indiana was only given 17% to win 6 games. If ESPN’s projection is correct, it would result in a collapse for Indiana. If Indiana finishes with a 4-8 record, Indiana would go 1-8 through the final 9 games. With a 5-7 overall record, Indiana would end the final 9 games of the season with a 2-7 record.
The season started with wins over Illinois, Idaho, and Western Kentucky. The Week 3 win over Western Kentucky was a close game and Indiana managed to survive at home. In 2022, Indiana already has more wins than the team had in 2021. Indiana finished the 2021 season with a 2-10 record.
Indiana will be on the road against Cincinnati in Week 4.