Favorable B1G schedule another reason to be high on Michigan State hoops

In these early days of the college basketball offseason, Michigan State is showing itself to be the Big Ten’s definitive team to beat next season.

While most B1G foes deal with graduations, NBA Draft entries and outgoing transfers, the Spartans have the unusual luxury of sustained experience.

If Jaden Akins elects to return after testing the draft process, Michigan State will bring back nearly 80% of last season’s minutes. Should Akins stay in the draft pool, the starting backcourt of Tyson Walker and AJ Hoggard is still back. And one of the few players without experience is 5-star recruit Xavier Booker, who is rated the nation’s No. 2 center in his class.

As if all that wasn’t enough, the Spartans picked up another bit of good news on Tuesday.

The Big Ten released the 20 conference games for each team in the 2023-24 season. And from the looks of it, Michigan State will combine the league’s best collection of talent with its most navigable course in conference play.

According to an early schedule breakdown from analytics guru Bart Torvik, the Spartans have the B1G’s easiest conference schedule.

Assumptions galore, of course, but here's an early look at B10 conference strength of schedule based on pairings released today: pic.twitter.com/LzfbKvDiBk

— Bart T🏀rvik (@totally_t_bomb) April 25, 2023

Michigan State has a home-and-home against each of the 3 teams currently near the bottom of Torvik’s projected Big Ten ratings — Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State.

The Spartans avoid an always unpleasant visit to Rutgers, and also dodge revisiting the site of last season’s infamous meltdown at Carver Hawkeye Arena. Michigan State dropped road games to both the Scarlet Knights and Hawkeyes last season.

That’s not to say the whole thing is a walk in the park. Michigan State visits Purdue and Indiana without a return trip from either.

Overall, though, this skeleton of a schedule smiles favorably on the Spartans. And given Tom Izzo’s non-conference scheduling habits, friendly will be a welcome sight. As always, his team will be broken in the hard way in November and December.

Don’t put the cart too far ahead of the horse

While the list of conference opponents sets up well for Michigan State, hold off on making measurements for another Big Ten championship banner.

The order in which games are scheduled can still matter. Purdue looked unbeatable last season until a stretch at Indiana, Northwestern and Maryland stuffed within a 4-game window.

More importantly, perhaps, is the still-revolving door of the transfer portal.

It’s rather unlikely Juwan Howard is done building next year’s Michigan roster, for example. What the Wolverines project to be in late April probably doesn’t equate to who they will be next season.

But there are still some basic assumptions that are safe to make.

Visiting Michigan State, Purdue, Indiana, Wisconsin, Illinois or Rutgers usually comes with some degree of difficulty attached. And given that Kevin Willard has yet to lose a Big Ten game at home, Maryland belongs on that list until further notice.

That allows us to come up with a few more superlatives for next season’s schedule.

Toughest schedule: Michigan

If you’re not into squinting, the Wolverines are projected to have the toughest B1G strength of schedule.

The biggest issue for Michigan? Only a combined 2 games against Minnesota and Penn State, which are expected to be the B1G’s worst teams.

Michigan also has to visit Maryland without hosting the Terrapins, who are a far different team on the road.

That said, the Wolverines don’t have to visit Indiana or Wisconsin next season. So even though Michigan misses out on 2 games against the Big Ten’s weakest teams, it also avoids some challenges.

Toughest road schedule: Northwestern

The Wildcats have to visit Indiana, Rutgers and Wisconsin without a return trip. Not only are all 3 traditionally tough at home, but they’re currently projected as teams 3-5 in the B1G.

Northwestern doesn’t visit Iowa or Michigan, each of which is currently projected to finish below the Cats. So that erases a couple of “expected” potential road wins.

That said, the Wildcats proved to be road warriors last season. Northwestern was 6-4 on the road in conference play, including wins at Michigan State, Indiana, Wisconsin and Rutgers.

Best road draw: Wisconsin

The Badgers avoid visiting Illinois or Maryland, which should be seen as a welcome development. Those atmospheres are difficult to deal with regardless of who is on the floor.

On top of that, Wisconsin’s road-only opponents are Michigan, Minnesota and Penn State. Each of those games will be winnable for the Badgers.

Most glaring potential omission: Maryland at Michigan

If there is a flame to the stoke surrounding Hunter Dickinson’s potential transfer to Maryland, the Big Ten is missing out on what would be the greatest atmosphere for a game next season.

The Big Ten’s greatest supervillain returning as a bad guy to the only arena where he’s beloved would make for great theater.

Of course, maybe schedule makers wanted to avoid creating an unpleasant scene.

One also wonders if Dickinson wanted to make sure he didn’t have to play as a visitor at Crisler Arena before zeroing in on a transfer destination. If that’s the case, the Terrapins are definitely in play now.

Alex Hickey

Alex Hickey is an award-winning writer who has watched Big Ten sports since it was a numerically accurate description of league membership. Alex has covered college football and basketball since 2008, with stops on the McNeese State, LSU and West Virginia beats before being hired as Saturday Tradition's Big Ten columnist in 2021. He is an Illinois native and 2004 Indiana University graduate.