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Last week didn’t work out too well.
Sure, a MAC team knocked off a B1G team (Eastern Michigan stunned Rutgers) and Penn State’s defense held Pitt under 17 points, but after the second week of the season came to a close, I was left scratching my head and saying to myself “what was I thinking?”
This week, it’s all about making smarter predictions.
After somewhat of an embarrassing showing last week — only two of the five bold predictions played out — I’ve decided to tone down the Week 3 predictions slightly. I said it last week and I’ll say it again, this is about bold predictions, not dumb ones.
Having said that, here are the bold predictions I’m laying out for Week 3 in the B1G.
Northwestern beats Bowling Green
Yeah, I’m starting off kind of simple, here. But the Wildcats are actually 0-2 all-time against Bowling Green and have lost to a MAC opponent in two of the last three seasons (Northern Illinois, 2014 & Western Michigan, 2016).
Considering how poorly Northwestern played last week, this game might actually be closer than predicted. Bowling Green is pretty bad, though. The Wildcats should capture their second win on their home field.
A QB will throw for more than 400 yards in Purdue-Missouri game
This game has the potential to be really fun, especially if you like offense.
Both Drew Lock and David Blough have big arms and are in systems that love to throw the football. That will translate to a lot of points and even more yards this Saturday. It wouldn’t be surprising if both quarterbacks eclipsed the 400-yard mark.
Illinois upsets No. 22 USF in Tampa
Could the first marquee win of the Lovie Smith era come this Friday? Maybe I’m crazy, but I believe the Illini have a legitimate shot to pull of an upset in Tampa.
Illinois’ defense has played surprisingly well through the first two weeks of the season and is the clear reason for the 2-0 start. It could cause some problems for USF quarterback Quinton Flowers.
Struggles on offense have been an issue but if the defense contains USF the Illini might have enough in the tank to get a huge win heading into conference play.
Rodney Smith rushes for 100 yards vs. Middle Tennessee
Six times last season Rodney Smith hit the 100-yard mark. But the Minnesota running back has come up just short of that goal in the first two weeks of the 2017 campaign. He’ll get over that hump against Middle Tennessee.
The Blue Raiders have actually defended the run pretty well this season, allowing just 98 yards per game through to games. But MTSU hasn’t faced a back quite as talented as Smith.
He’ll be ready for a big day in the non-conference finale.
Neither Michigan or Ohio State cover the spread
Michigan is favored by 23.5. Ohio State is a 30.5-point favorite. After watching both teams struggle last week, I can’t trust either to cover those sizeable spreads.
This is probably one of those dumb predictions, especially considering how dominating Ohio State can be after a loss. Both Air Force and Army bring unique offensive looks and will probably cause some problems early in both games.
Both teams should win comfortably, but a few touchdowns early for Air Force and Army could spoil the chance to cover for the Wolverines and Buckeyes.
Dustin grew up in the heart of Big Ten country and has been in sports media since 2010. He has been covering Big Ten football since 2014. You can follow him on Twitter: @SchutteCFB