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Greg McElroy predicts outcome of USC at Michigan in Week 4
By Paul Harvey
Published:
Greg McElroy is breaking down all the major matchups of the weekend, and that includes some ranked showdowns across the country.
This weekend, there are 4 games between Top 25 teams, and 2 of those games are within the Big Ten. USC’s first-ever Big Ten game as a league member is included with the Trojans heading to Ann Arbor to face Michigan.
Prior to the season, the Wolverines were favored in that matchup, but things have since shifted in favor of the Trojans a bit. A lot of that has to do with ball security with McElroy question if the Wolverines can protect the football.
The analyst described Michigan’s ball security as “unrecognizable” compared to recent seasons with 6 interceptions from Davis Warren. Combined with a defense that is currently not creating turnovers, and it could put the Wolverines in a hole on Saturday.
“They are currently last in the Big Ten with a -4 turnover margin. They are 119th in the country with that -4. They have turned it over 7 times including 6 times in the last 2 weeks,” listed McElroy. “That is not sustainable, that is not Michigan football.”
Another key question for McElroy is whether or not Miller Moss can find success against what he described as a “vulnerable secondary.” That’s a surprising designation for some, but it’s the reality of the first 3 weeks of the season.
“I’m surprised, probably just like you. The secondary for Michigan has been a little disappointing,” McElroy admitted. “Even Will Johnson, first game, for example. It was not a great start for Will Johnson… I think he gave up 6 completions.”
As for the Trojan offense, McElroy highlighted that 90% of the throws in the first 2 games came from inside the pocket with USC’s skill players maximizing yards after the catch. It’s a good matchup for Lincoln Riley’s offense with Michigan’s defense giving up 77% of its total yards through the air.
For his prediction, McElroy is riding with USC as a road favorite though acknowledging it is a role that has been unkind in recent history. It boils down to not having much faith in Alex Orji or the Michigan offense overall.
“As of right now, I think Michigan’s offense is going to be too one dimensional. I am not at this point at all threatened by what I’ve seen from Alex Orji… Maybe Michigan’s defense flexes in this one and makes this thing interesting but at this point I’m not sold. I think USC has too many weapons,” McElroy predicted.
As of Thursday, USC is a 5.5-point favorite per bet365, even as the road team traveling to the Big House. Fans can take advantage of Tradition’s Michigan sportsbook apps to get into the action, and kickoff on Saturday is set for 3:30 pm ET.
Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.