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Greg McElroy warns Michigan could finish 2024 regular season unranked
By Andrew Olson
Published:
Greg McElroy has concerns about Michigan in 2024.
The ESPN latest discussed this week’s preseason AP Top 25 on Wednesday’s Always College Football podcast. Michigan checked in at No. 9, which McElroy found to be a fitting preseason ranking for the defending national champion.
The postseason poll is sure to look much different from the preseason poll. A fun topic of conservation has been which unranked teams might crack the top 10, and which top-10 teams might finish the regular season unranked.
McElroy identified Michigan as a potential top-10 team that could finish the 2024 campaign outside of the top 25. The ESPN commentator noted that he is uncertain about the Wolverines at the quarterback position.
“What if Alex Orji makes mistakes throwing the football? What if the offense sputters and has some turnover woes? What if that happens? And you look at Michigan’s schedule, they could, in theory, be an 8-4 football team,” McElroy said.
“Schedule is brutal, and if they can’t get the quarterback right for whatever reason, you telling me they couldn’t play their way out of the top 25? It absolutely could happen.”
Expectations for Michigan in 2024
The 2024 Wolverines will look noticeably different from a 2023 squad that had 13 players selected in the NFL Draft. The baker’s dozen draftees were the most for any school in this year’s draft and are an all-time Michigan program record.
Back in February, ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranked all 134 teams by returning production. UM checked in near the bottom at No. 128. The Wolverines return just 36% of their 2023 production.
ESPN’s computers predict Michigan will run into some trouble this fall. ESPN’s FPI, a simulation-based predictive rating system, projects the Wolverines to have a record of 8.3-3.9. Rounding to complete wins and losses, it falls in line with the 8-4 record McElroy cited for UM to potentially be unranked.
At DraftKings Sportsbook, Michigan’s over/under for regular-season wins is set at 9 wins. The under is priced at -135, meaning a $135 wager is needed to win $100 for a $235 payout. Over 9 wins is priced at +115, meaning 10 Wolverine victories would produce a $215 payout on a $100 wager.
Sportsbooks are in the business of making money, so it’s fair to say the expectation is Michigan finishes the regular somewhere around 9-3 – maybe 10-2, maybe 8-4.
McElroy raised the possibility of being 8-4 and unranked at the “end of November.” It’s true that not many 4-loss teams crack the AP Top 25 after the 12-game regular season is played. Last year, Oregon State was the only ranked 8-4 squad after the end of regular-season action, tied at No. 21 with NC State (9-3).
Even if the Wolverines are unranked after Rivalry Week, they would have chances to get back in the AP Top 25.
Last year, the post-conference championship weekend AP poll featured three 4-loss squads: No. 25 Tennessee, No. 22 Oklahoma State and No. 21 Oregon State. After Bowl Season, the number of ranked 4-loss teams grew to eight: No. 16 Oklahoma State (10-4), No. 17 Tennessee (9-4), No. 18 Kansas State (9-4), No. 19 Louisville (10-4), No. 20 Clemson (9-4), No. 21 NC State (9-4), No. 23 Kansas (9-4) and No. 24 Iowa (10-4).
If Michigan manages to finish its 2024 season ranked, Wolverine fans will be sure to remind McElroy.
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A former Florida beat reporter, Andrew writes for the Saturday Tradition News Desk.