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Hammerin’ the B1G: 3 scenarios where Ohio State could fail to live up to title expectations
By Paul Harvey
Published:
Welcome to the 2024 college football preseason, where expectations and talented rosters reign supreme! That’s why — on paper — Ohio State looks like the favorite to be the preseason No. 1 team in the country.
My colleague Connor O’Gara is also on the hype train for the Buckeyes a bit, concluding our “Predicting the Playoff” series with a look at why Ohio State is the likely choice to be the No. 1 seed in the country.
If you haven’t been following the rest of our preseason, I share in that outlook for the Buckeyes. And should anyone need confirmation of my belief in OSU, I was the lone voter in our Saturday Down South Top 25 preseason poll to put the Buckeyes at No. 1 overall.
To be clear, I’m not the only one who believes OSU should be the No. 1 team in the country. Urban Meyer and Jim Tressel have been outspoken about their belief in what the roster of the Buckeyes looks like, and Joel Klatt and Greg McElroy also have strong thoughts about that roster.
So, what is this article about if I am a believer in Ohio State’s potential?
We all know that potential is just one part of the equation, even if the potential on Ohio State’s roster greatly surpasses the majority of the country and narrowly edges Kirby Smart’s Georgia monster. (It’s true.) Even with that kind of talent, there are a few question marks that could stumble the Buckeyes.
And let me be clear: These are purely hypothetical scenarios that could happen. I am not predicting that the scenarios below will happen, but I am predicting that Ohio State will have a hard time fulfilling its expectations if these scenarios play out.
To follow that thought, if any of these scenarios play out and Ohio State falls short, it would create an uncomfortable offseason for head coach Ryan Day. FanDuel has the Buckeyes among the favorites to win the title, and Day is already fighting against the perception of a head coach “doing less with more” over the past few seasons. (Fans can also use Tradition’s FanDuel Ohio promo code to get the best offers and bonuses.)
Either way, let this piece serve as a cautionary reminder of what Ohio State must address and navigate entering its pursuit of a title.
Will Howard is a guy under center but not the guy
Ohio State’s QB room is an area where Day likely feels the pressure of the 2024 season more than any other, and it largely has to do with Kyle McCord’s 2023 performance and the offseason that played out. In fact, it was never a given that Ohio State would add a QB via the portal with Will Howard coming aboard after Jan. 1.
The Buckeyes arguably have the deepest or most talented collection of QBs in the country this season, but that group has only 1 proven starter in Howard. Further casting a shadow over the group is the fact that Day did not commit to a starter between Howard and Devin Brown in the spring.
That’s all fine and well if that is how Day wants to operate, but all signs should point to Howard being the guy by the middle of fall camp. And I remain bullish on Howard’s fit with what the Buckeyes and OC Chip Kelly want to do.
However, we still have to deal in facts when discussing what Howard has been prior to arriving in Columbus. And the fact is Howard was a serviceable dual-threat QB but one with a 58.8 career completion percentage and just 1 full season under center.
Granted, Howard has gotten better every season of his career and gives Day a QB who can use his legs, something that McCord did not do last season. But it feels safe to say the Buckeyes need Howard to eclipse his career-high 61.3% completion percentage from last year to win a title.
If Howard improves that mark, even slightly, while adding serviceable numbers in the ground game, then Ohio State will be just fine offensively. But if he regresses, expecting the ground game alone to lead the Buckeyes to a title against the other heavyweights would be unwise.
The linebacker unit struggles to find its footing
In his piece predicting Ohio State as the No. 1 seed, O’Gara mentions the Buckeye secondary as an area of concern. I understand his concerns, but the presence of veterans Jordan Hancock and Denzel Burke, to go with a deep group of safeties, gives me less worry about a group that features some younger depth pieces at cornerback.
The area on Ohio State’s defense that I am most interested in tracking is the linebacker corps. The team’s leading tacklers 2 years running — Tommy Eichenberg and Steele Chambers — are gone, and Eichenberg was the team’s 2nd-leading tackler in 2021 as well.
Cody Simon (57 tackles in 2023 and 147 career tackles) is back to lead the group as a veteran, and Sonny Styles’ ultimate usage is still TBD, so he could contribute a bit at linebacker. But, beyond those 2 players, a lot is riding on a breakout season from CJ Hicks.
A former 5-star prospect, Hicks has played in 25 games largely on special teams and as a reserve contributor behind Eichenberg and Chambers. He has just 14 career tackles, but all signs point to a large role this fall.
For what it’s worth, Jim Knowles has expressed a belief in what Hicks brings to the table, and Hicks has been learning while biding his time. But if he struggles to shine with the defense, it would leave a hole in the middle of an otherwise elite defense.
Kourt Williams II, Mitchell Melton and former Michigan LB Joey Valazquez are also in the LB room, but that group is mainly about depth behind Simon and Hicks.
The new kids on the block are just better in 2024
I know the thought is unthinkable for many longtime Big Ten fans, but what if Oregon just happens to be the most complete team in the league this fall? It’s not unthinkable to oddsmakers with Dan Lanning’s Ducks 2nd on the 2024 Big Ten Championship odds only to Ohio State, and the margin is slim at that.
And, it’s worth pointing out that the best team on paper doesn’t always win the most titles. Ohio State is the most talented team in the country, but that doesn’t mean Oregon cannot be better on the field.
Day himself understands that:
“We talk a lot about how it’s not going to be the most talented team that wins at the end of the season. It’s the best team — or we call it tribe,” said Day in a recent sitdown with Joel Klatt.
Granted, it looks like Ohio State is developing that tribe mentality for 2024. But what if Oregon is just doing it better under less scrutiny?
After all, the Ducks have a roster that will be viewed among the best in the country, Lanning has loaded up with a pair of star QBs (1 a veteran and the other a talented up-and-comer), and Oregon will get a game at home against the Buckeyes to see how the two measure up.
It is more than possible that Oregon proves to be the better and more cohesive unit within the B1G, and that could be the simplest path to the demise of Ohio State.
I understand in a new 12-team Playoff teams do not need to be the best in their own league to make the field. But I also believe the national champion this year will be the champion from their own league.
If that is how Ohio State misses out on a title, it will be a particularly hard pill for the Buckeyes and their fans to swallow.
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Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.