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Hammerin’ the B1G: Examining Rutgers’ ceiling for the 2024 season
By Paul Harvey
Published:
Rutgers is used to playing the role of an afterthought in the B1G race. However, the Scarlet Knights are no longer going to be a team that sneaks up on people.
After winning 9 total games during the Chris Ash era, Rutgers re-hired Greg Schiano to rebuild the program he once transformed during the program’s Big East days. The vibe around the Scarlet Knights immediately changed with Schiano’s textbook never-quit attitude leading to 8 wins across the 2020-21 seasons.
While the 2022 season resulted in a 4-8 record, Rutgers rebounded to a 7-6 record and its first bowl win since 2014 a season ago. Now, Rutgers is looking at an even bigger season this fall.
Before we get into the meat of this article, ESPN Bet has set Rutgers’ regular season win total at 6.5. That’s a number that feels safe to take the over on, and anyone interested can use Tradition’s Maryland sports betting apps to get started.
Now that you know I think Rutgers is a 7-win team at minimum, let’s take a look at why expectations should be higher for the Scarlet Knights this fall. Also, we’ll provide an absolute high-water mark that Rutgers could reach and my best guess for their actual win-loss record at the end of the season. (And don’t forget to keep an eye out for our Crystal Ball series predicting every game on Rutgers’ schedule.)
Why I’m buying Rutgers stock
When it comes to projecting the 2024 performance of a team, I put a fair amount of stock in returning production. Granted, that practice isn’t always a simple endeavor.
Stanford returning 85% production from a team that went 3-9 should absolutely be viewed differently than a Georgia team that was 1 win away from the Playoff returning 68% of its production. Still, for a program like Rutgers, getting key pieces back is important.
After going 7-6 a season ago, Rutgers was 13th in the country in Bill Connelly’s post-spring returning production numbers. The Scarlet Knights have 72% of production returning, including some key pieces on offense.
That’s good news because offense is traditionally the area of concern for the Scarlet Knights. Last season, the Rutgers defense allowed just 21.2 points per game (34th in the country), but the offense finished 96th nationally at 23.2 points per game.
On the offensive side of the ball, the B1G’s leading rusher Kyle Monangai is back after 1,262 yards and 8 touchdowns. Starting quarterback Gavin Wimsatt is gone via the transfer portal, but that should be a net positive for the program.
Wimsatt’s departure followed the arrival of former Minnesota starter Athan Kaliakmanis and reports that Kaliakmanis will be the starter this season. The improvements Kaliakmanis brings as a passer should help unlock the offense further, including opening more running lanes for Monangai.
On the other side of the ball, there’s no reason to think Rutgers’ defense will not be solid once again with Schiano’s pedigree and the previous results.
What is the true ceiling of the Scarlet Knights?
So, if those are the reasons to be high on Rutgers, what is the true ceiling in 2024? ESPN’s Football Power Index has a projected record of 7.2-4.8, meaning the system also sees Rutgers safely above the 6.5-win mark.
Within the new-look B1G, the Scarlet Knights are given just a 1% chance of winning the league, but this is not to discuss Rutgers as a serious competitor. What stands out to me is that the Scarlet Knights rank 6th in the odds to win the league per the FPI, ahead of other programs such as Iowa, Nebraska, Washington and even Wisconsin.
The 7.2-win projection by the FPI stands out as a solid middle-ground to me, and the floor for a team like Rutgers will be around 4-5 wins. I don’t think that will happen, but any discussion of the ceiling must also include what the bottom number could be.
As for the ceiling, I have Rutgers with a strong shot at a 9-win season and an outside shot at 10 wins. I’ll even give you a second to let the laughter and shocked gasps to die down.
Okay, ready to continue? Let’s move on.
I know Rutgers has not won 9 games in a season since 2012, and the last time the program won 10 games in a regular season came in 2006. Both of those seasons came while the Scarlet Knights were still in the Big East, but a quick glance at the schedule shows a lot of potential this fall.
Rutgers does not face any of the teams in the top 4 of the Big Ten Championship odds. Somehow, the Scarlet Knights will bypass Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Michigan this fall, a luxury they never had when the B1G East still existed.
Instead of facing Dan Lanning’s Ducks, Rutgers will get matchups against a Kalen DeBoer-less Washington and a Chip Kelly-less UCLA. Both of those games will come at home to go with a road trip against USC. (And are you confident a Lincoln Riley-led team is physical enough for the B1G? Didn’t think so.)
The toughest games on the schedule could ultimately be a road trip against Nebraska and a home matchup vs. Wisconsin. Nothing will be given on the schedule, but nothing stands out as unwinnable either.
Prediction
I know I’ve spent all this time talking you up to some crazy reveal. Allow me to now dial it back just a little bit.
I believe Rutgers is capable of 9 or 10 wins this season, but even I will not predict it to pass. I believe an 8-win regular season is more likely for the program, but that’s not the overall point.
If you look at the Big Ten standings in early November and notice Rutgers sitting 3rd or 4th in the league, don’t say you weren’t warned.
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Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.