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Hickey: 10 swing games that will determine the Big Ten race
By Alex Hickey
Published:
Every Big Ten football season features games that serve as a pendulum determining which teams will reach the conference championship game.
Obviously, The Game between Michigan and Ohio State is likely to be one of those games in any given season. But it’s never alone.
Last year’s Purdue-Illinois game was the most important in determining the B1G West champion.
With a win, the Fighting Illini would have wrapped a bow on the division title with 2 weeks to go. But led by Aidan O’Connell’s 3 touchdown passes, the Boilermakers stayed alive and went on to win the West after winning out.
Obviously all 6 of Purdue’s Big Ten victories mattered, but it was the win at Illinois that provided the tiebreaker.
These are 10 games that could similarly impact the 2023 Big Ten title race.
10. Illinois at Maryland, Week 7
There’s a reason this game is 10th on the list. But there’s also a reason it made the list.
The Terrapins are unlikely to win a division that has 3 teams in the preseason Top 10. But Maryland does have a chance to go 9-3 or 10-2, and that would put the Terps in the postseason Top 25 for the first time since 2010. Beating Illinois is likely essential to achieving those goals.
The Illini have a more manageable path to a division title in the B1G West. Illinois doesn’t catch Ohio State or Michigan, and hosts Penn State. If the Illini can steal a road win in this crossover game, it’s a hug boost toward winning the West.
9. Penn State at Illinois, Week 3
The Nittany Lions have the B1G East title in their sights. That means beating either Ohio State or Michigan and avoiding any slip-ups elsewhere. And this is a perfect opportunity to slip — Penn State’s first road game of the year.
As for the Illini, it’s pretty cut and dry. Win this game and you’ve taken out your toughest opponent of the whole season. That could be huge.
8. Ohio State at Wisconsin, Week 9
It’s a sexy matchup, though it might not end up being a swing game. As long as the loser of this game wins every other Big Ten game on its schedule, it’ll reach the championship game. But it could be a swing game in the College Football Playoff picture.
Let’s say that Wisconsin, Ohio State and Michigan all finish 11-1 with Ohio State beating Wisconsin and Michigan beating Ohio State. Or Wisconsin beating Ohio State and Ohio State beating Michigan. Either scenario would turn the Big Ten championship game into a de facto Playoff elimination game. And the team that finishes 2nd in the East could end up benefitting from the outcome.
That’s the strange quirk of divisional play — a game could end up factoring more in the CFP picture than the B1G picture.
7. Illinois at Iowa, Week 12
These teams are the most likely to challenge Wisconsin for the B1G West title, so what happens when they play each other in the penultimate game of the season figures to be quite significant. Even if the winner doesn’t end up reaching the Big Ten championship game, it could very well be the reason the loser of this game doesn’t reach Indianapolis.
6. Wisconsin at Illinois, Week 8
I promise that this isn’t just a list of every team Illinois plays except for Northwestern. What I also promise is that the Illini will be a significant factor in the B1G West race because they are the rare toss-up team capable of beating or losing to just about anyone they play.
Illinois pounded Wisconsin so thoroughly last year that Paul Chryst was fired the following day. And now his interim replacement who was eventually passed over for the permanent position, Jim Leonhard, is on Bret Bielema’s staff as a defensive analyst.
This is among my favorite games of the entire season.
5. Iowa at Wisconsin, Week 7
See, not every important game features Illinois. Just a place where Bret Bielema played or coached.
This is the first game of a 3-week make-or-break stretch for the Badgers. (More on the 3rd game later.)
Wisconsin’s newfangled, up-tempo offense is one of the B1G’s most noteworthy storylines this season. And Phil Parker’s defense is Phil Parker’s defense, which means the Hawkeyes don’t give a hoot about what your offense does.
I’m semi-confident that the winner of this game ends up winning the West. Though, in case it hasn’t been hammered home enough, Illinois will also have something to say about that.
4. Iowa at Penn State, Week 4
It’s my belief that Penn State has the most difficult schedule of the B1G East contenders, and this game will be a barometer of that fact. It’s a White Out in Happy Valley, but Iowa’s defense could give this matchup shades of the 6-4 classic(?) in 2004.
Needless to say, winning this game would be a huge coup for Iowa’s championship chances. And a loss likely means Penn State would need to beat both Michigan and Ohio State in order to reach the Big Ten championship game.
See? Huge stakes, even though it’s September.
3. Michigan at Penn State, Week 11
This is the swing game of all swing games, meaning it will either be more or less important than No. 3 on this list by the time it comes along.
If both teams roll in 9-0, we have a potential Game of the Year/Decade/Century on our hands. But if Penn State trips up against any combination of Illinois, Iowa, Ohio State or even Maryland, it’s a much different storyline.
2. Penn State at Ohio State, Week 8
While Michigan-Penn State is a probable swing game, this is a definite swing game. The winner emerges as the Wolverines’ chief challenger, while the loser will need outside help to reach the Big Ten championship game.
And for what it’s worth, Penn State feels closer to beating Ohio State than Michigan. The Nittany Lions just need to figure out how to block JT Tuimoloau and they’ll have a chance. Easier said than done, of course.
1. Ohio State at Michigan, Week 13
The winner of the Ohio State-Michigan game has reached the Big Ten championship game every year since 2017. And unless either team enters The Game with 2 B1G losses — though based on schedule, that’s possible for the Buckeyes — that trend will continue in 2023.
Alex Hickey is an award-winning writer who has watched Big Ten sports since it was a numerically accurate description of league membership. Alex has covered college football and basketball since 2008, with stops on the McNeese State, LSU and West Virginia beats before being hired as Saturday Tradition's Big Ten columnist in 2021. He is an Illinois native and 2004 Indiana University graduate.