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Hickey: Final thoughts and predictions for Week 5 in the Big Ten
By Alex Hickey
Published:
What could Week 5 possibly offer that will top what we witnessed in the Big Ten last week?
Ohio State’s last-second win at Notre Dame may well go down as the game of the year, and we are only one-third of the way through the regular season. And though that rightfully hogged the spotlight, there were other tasty morsels further down the menu.
Like Northwestern rallying from a 31-10 fourth-quarter deficit to beat Minnesota. Or Indiana surviving a quadruple-overtime challenge from Akron. It wasn’t pretty, but it was exciting.
Neither of those games would have jumped out as must-watch material in the leadup to last week.
So while there isn’t a clearcut marquee matchup this week, fear not. At least 1 of these games will find a way.
No. 6 Penn State (4-0, 2-0) at Northwestern (2-2, 1-1), Noon ET, BTN
James Franklin caused a little bit of a buzz this week when he noted that the Nittany Lions are practicing without crowd noise this week to better prepare for the Saturday morning atmosphere at Ryan Field.
Savage. But accurate.
Maybe Northwestern could use this as testimony to alleviate Evanston residents’ fears that the school’s renovation plan for the stadium will create an atmosphere that’s too noisy. (Really, this is what Northwestern is dealing with.)
Prediction: Penn State 38, Northwestern 13
Louisiana (3-1) at Minnesota (2-2), Noon ET, BTN
After back-to-back weeks getting exposed against North Carolina and Northwestern, the Gophers limp back to Huntington Bank Stadium for a much-needed home game. But Louisiana, f/k/a Louisiana-Lafayette, f/k/a Southwestern Louisiana, is no get-well-soon opponent. Anger is in the Ragin’ Cajuns very name!
Louisiana has scored at least 31 points in every game and ranks 19th nationally in total offense. The Cajuns have a near perfect balance — only 13 yards difference between their passing and running totals.
This is a dangerous game for the Gophers.
Prediction: Minnesota 30, Louisiana 28
No. 2 Michigan (4-0, 1-0) at Nebraska (2-2, 0-1), 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX
Thus far, Matt Rhule’s first defense at Nebraska looks pretty capable of hanging with anybody. The Huskers are 21st nationally in yards per play allowed. But Michigan is not just anybody, and this feels like a game where things will be close until the bruising Wolverines wear that defense down.
Nebraska has looked better offensively with backup Heinrich Haarberg leading the way the past 2 weeks, but he hasn’t seen anything like Michigan’s defense yet. And even with Haarberg’s relative success, this offense is still too 1-dimensional to make much happen against Michigan. The only teams to beat the Wolverines the past 2 years are truly explosive on offense.
Nebraska, which is 82nd nationally with 17 plays of 20 yards or more, is not that.
Prediction: Michigan 31, Nebraska 13
Indiana (2-2, 0-1) at Maryland (4-0, 1-0), 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN
A win here gets the Terps to 5-0 for the first time since 2001, when Ralph Friedgen completely revitalized the program with a stunning ACC title.
In fact, Maryland has been winning games like a real football school would so far, beating all of its opponents by double digits. Doing so again this week against the Hoosiers might be enough for the Terps to crack the Top 25, which would add some salsa to next week’s game at Ohio State.
And you know how voters are. They’re going to want to add some salsa.
Something to contemplate: 9 of the 11 games played between these programs have been decided by 2 touchdowns or less. Indiana is probably going to keep this closer than anticipated.
Prediction: Maryland 24, Indiana 10
Illinois (2-2, 0-1) at Purdue (1-3, 0-1), 3:30 p.m. ET, Peacock
The student (Ryan Walters) meets the master (Bret Bielema) in what looms as a surprisingly important battle for the Purdue Cannon.
You can stick a fork in whichever team loses this game — especially if it’s the Boilermakers, who would drop to 0-4 at home with a defeat.
Illinois still could mount a dark horse run in the West with a win here. There are no more Penn States on the schedule. But you could kiss those hopes goodbye with an 0-2 start in B1G play.
The Illinois defense has looked lost without Walters, its former coordinator, this season. And Walters has looked lost at times in his new role as a head coach. We’ll see who is worse off at the conclusion of this one.
Prediction: Purdue 31, Illinois 27
Wagner (2-2) at Rutgers (3-1), 3:30 p.m. ET, BTN
Now in his 4th season at Wagner, Seahawks coach Tom Masella has tripled his win total thanks to this year’s 2-2 start. Masella went into 2023 with a 1-23 record at Wagner.
And it’s not his first time experiencing that level of losing. Masella previously went 2-20 in 2 seasons at Boston University, which then dropped football.
In other words, if you need to sell a house described as a “fixer-upper” or “handyman’s dream,” Masella looks like an ideal buyer.
Prediction: Rutgers 70, Wagner 7
Michigan State (2-2, 0-1) at Iowa (3-1, 0-1), 7:30 p.m. ET, NBC
A pair of teams that head into this game in desperate need of good news, which could make this the most compelling game of the week even if that’s not the reason we usually choose for a game to be compelling.
Michigan State has been reeling in the 2 weeks since Mel Tucker was suspended and then fired. Last week Michigan State quarterbacks Noah Kim and Katin Houser threw a combined 3 interceptions, which seems like a harbinger of guaranteed doom at Iowa.
But what will happen when MSU’s B1G’-worst pass defense (7.8 yards per attempt) meets its worst pass offense (5.5 yards per attempt)?
I have no idea.
But I still have to make a prediction.
Prediction: Iowa 20, Michigan State 10
Alex Hickey is an award-winning writer who has watched Big Ten sports since it was a numerically accurate description of league membership. Alex has covered college football and basketball since 2008, with stops on the McNeese State, LSU and West Virginia beats before being hired as Saturday Tradition's Big Ten columnist in 2021. He is an Illinois native and 2004 Indiana University graduate.