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Hickey: Which B1G player props are the best bets? Which are the worst?
By Alex Hickey
Published:
If there was such thing as a sure bet, the Las Vegas Strip would be a trailer park rather than a long line of luxurious and gaudy buildings. The house always finds an edge.
Player prop bets are a good example of why this is so frequently the case. Many times a player looks like a cinch to hit the over on an over/under prop. A year ago, no number felt too high for Ohio State receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba to clear.
And then Smith-Njigba pulled his hamstring in the season opener against Notre Dame. He finished the season with 5 catches for 43 yards.
For anyone who had the temerity to take the under on any Smith-Njigba props, there was a payday. But who wants to be friends with those people? They’re taking the loss in other ways.
Moral of the story: remember to be responsible with your prop bet wagers. Things can get wonky in a hurry.
That being said, some player props are impossible to resist. Here, we’ll break down the best of what’s available on FanDuel Sportsbook regarding Big Ten players for 2023.
Michigan RB Blake Corum
Rushing touchdowns: O 10.5 (-126)
If Corum stays healthy all season, it seems utterly impossible to me that he won’t go over this total. He rushed for 18 touchdowns in 11 games last year. And when he had a 50/50 share of the load with Hassan Haskins in 2021, Corum still found the end zone 10 times in the regular season. (Don’t make the mistake of thinking postseason games count towards your totals.)
Yes, Donovan Edwards will likely score more touchdowns this season. But Corum is still the better red zone option for the Wolverines.
The only scenarios in which Corum goes under this total are injuries or because JJ McCarthy is throwing too many touchdown passes… and more on that in a moment.
Rushing yards: 1,025.5 (-112)
In 11 games last year — I’m not counting his two hobbled touches against Ohio State — Corum rushed for 1,463 yards. The year prior, Corum gained 952 yards despite being Michigan’s No. 2 running back.
Bottom line: This looks too good to be true. Is there a private eye following Corum around to see if he’s walking with a limp?
But that doesn’t actually mean it is too good to be true. If Corum is healthy, the over on both of these props is a stone-cold lock. Michigan would love to build a Heisman campaign around Corum, and that means he’ll have plenty of chances to pad his numbers if the circumstances allow for it.
Michigan QB JJ McCarthy
Passing touchdowns: O 20.5 (-106), U 20.5 (-120)
McCarthy had 17 touchdown passes in the 2022 regular season — but keep in mind that he wasn’t the full-fledged starting quarterback until Week 3.
The tight end combination of Colston Loveland and AJ Barner gives Michigan a pair of premium red zone targets. And McCarthy should simply be a better quarterback in his junior season. He will almost certainly build on last year’s numbers.
Passing yards: 2,625.5 (-112)
McCarthy averaged 190.5 yards per game in Big Ten play last season. He does not figure to be throwing much against Michigan’s paltry nonconference schedule. And in order to hit the over here, McCarthy needs to average 218.8 yards per game.
Bottom line: I think McCarthy will throw 20 or more touchdown passes this year. But I’m rather skeptical that Michigan is going to open up the playbook to the extent that he will be averaging 30 yards per game more than a year ago — especially when Corum and Edwards are the team’s best offensive players.
Take the over on touchdowns. And if you feel compelled to bet on his passing yards, the under is the safer choice.
Michigan WR Cornelius Johnson
Receiving touchdowns: O 4.5 (-130), U 4.5 (+102)
Johnson is Michigan’s definitive WR1 now that Ronnie Bell is gone. And even with Bell in the lineup, Johnson had 6 touchdown catches last season.
Receiving yards: 650.6 (-112)
The magic number here is 54.3 yards per game. Johnson averaged 35.6 yards per game last season. When Bell was injured in 2021 and Johnson became Michigan’s top target, he averaged 44.3 yards per game. However, the Wolverines will almost certainly throw the ball more frequently than they did in 2021.
Bottom line: Slam the over on receiving touchdowns. Loveland and Barner will steal some chances in the red zone, but Johnson is Michigan’s best deep threat. I’m surprised his over/under is a number lower than 5.5.
Yardage on the other hand? Caveat emptor. This one feels like a coin flip that could go either way.
Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
Receiving touchdowns: 11.5 (-112)
Harrison had 12 receiving touchdowns in the 2022 regular season. Do you see him dropping off this year?
Unless he gets hurt or decides to sit out the end of the season because the Buckeyes are out of contention, this is an attainable number. And only one of those scenarios is plausible.
Receiving yards: 1,125.5 yards (-112)
Harrison finished with 1,157 regular-season receiving yards last season, so he would figure to once again reach that goal. However, there is an important thing to keep in mind here. Harrison might not be playing in many fourth quarters, which could be a very friendly development for under bettors.
Bottom line: I wouldn’t bet against Marvin Harrison Jr.
Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka
Receiving touchdowns: 9.5 (-112)
Egbuka came into his own last year with 9 touchdown receptions in the regular season. However, it’s worth noting that Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave are the only Ohio State receiving tandem to each eclipse 10 regular season touchdowns.
That means it’s historically significant if Harrison and Egbuka both go over their totals.
Receiving yards: 925.5 (-112)
Egbuka had 1,039 yards last year, going over 100 yards in 5 different games — and then doing it again against Georgia’s vaunted secondary in the College Football Playoff.
His average would have to drop to 77.2 yards per game from last year’s 88.5 ypg mark in order to finish under the total.
Bottom line: Even with a new quarterback in Columbus, Egbuka is going to get his yards this season. Outside of Corum’s overs, perhaps no Big Ten prop bet feels safer.
However, I’d be inclined to take the under on touchdowns.
It’s going to be a challenge for both Harrison and Egbuka to get into the end zone that many times — especially if running back TreVeyon Henderson is 100% this season. Henderson scored 15 times in 2022, and he and Miyan Williams (14 TD last year) figure to punch the ball in quite frequently.
Alex Hickey is an award-winning writer who has watched Big Ten sports since it was a numerically accurate description of league membership. Alex has covered college football and basketball since 2008, with stops on the McNeese State, LSU and West Virginia beats before being hired as Saturday Tradition's Big Ten columnist in 2021. He is an Illinois native and 2004 Indiana University graduate.