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How each B1G team performed after being in the preseason AP Top 25 in the 21st century

Connor O'Gara

By Connor O'Gara

Published:

You don’t get anything for earning a spot in the preseason Associated Press Top 25.

It’s true. It’s a nice early-season bragging point for a team and fanbase that sets the stage for what expectations are entering a season.

On Monday, we learned that 7 B1G teams (Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan State and Nebraska) earned spots in the preseason top 25. Last I checked, that’s pretty good. Really good, in fact.

But what I wanted to know was how each B1G team performed once that preseason ranking came in.

What I found was some extremely interesting trends in the 21st century:

(All of these stats were provided by the great folks over at sports-reference.com/cfb)

Illinois

  • 2 preseason AP spots
  • Finished better than preseason AP ranking? 0
  • Finished worse than preseason AP ranking? 2
  • Hasn’t started and finished in AP Poll in 21st century (1990 was last time)
  • Hasn’t started in AP Top 25 since 2008 (coming off Rose Bowl)
  • Hasn’t appeared in AP Top 25 at all since 2011

Indiana

  • 0 AP spots at ALL in 21st century
  • Hasn’t appeared in AP Top 25 since Sept. 1994
    • 1,299 straight weeks of no AP spots
    • 2 days before premiere of “Friends”
    • Michael Jordan was playing baseball
    • No player on Indiana’s roster was alive

Iowa

  • 7 preseason AP spots
  • Finished better than preseason AP ranking? 2
  • Finished worse than preseason AP ranking? 4 (all finished as unranked)
  • Went from unranked in preseason to ranked? 5
  • Haven’t started and finished in AP Poll since 2009

Maryland

  • 3 preseason AP spots (all w/ ACC)
  • Finished better than preseason AP ranking? 1
  • Finished worse than preseason AP ranking? 2
  • Went from unranked in preseason to ranked? 2 (2001, 2010)
  • Hasn’t appeared in midseason AP Top 25 since 2013

Michigan

  • 14 preseason AP spots
  • Finished better than preseason AP ranking? 2
  • Finished worse than preseason AP ranking? 10
  • Finished same as preseason AP ranking? 1 (2018)
  • Went from unranked in preseason to ranked? 2 (2011, 2015)
  • All 7 preseason top 10 rankings produced worse final rankings
    • Did keep a top 10 spot in 2 of those 7 seasons

Michigan State

  • 9 preseason AP spots
  • Finished better than preseason AP ranking? 2
  • Finished worse than preseason AP ranking? 6
  • Went from unranked in preseason to ranked? 4
  • Two times started as preseason top 10 team, finished as top 10 team

Minnesota

  • 1 preseason AP spot (2004)
  • Finished better than preseason AP ranking? 0
  • Finished worse than preseason AP ranking? 1
  • Only finished as top 25 team once (2003)
  • Went from unranked in preseason to ranked? 1 (2003)
  • Haven’t started and finished ranked in 21st century

Nebraska

  • 12 preseason AP spots
  • Finished better than preseason AP ranking? 1
  • Finished worse than preseason AP ranking? 10
  • Went from unranked in preseason to ranked? 2
  • Haven’t finished as top 25 team since 2012

Northwestern

  • 2 preseason AP spots (2001, 2013)
  • Finished better than preseason AP ranking? 0
  • Finished worse than preseason AP ranking? 2
  • Went from unranked in preseason to ranked? 4 (all in last 7 seasons)
  • Hasn’t started and finished ranked in 21st century

Ohio State

  • 20 preseason AP spots (every year of 21st century)
  • Finished better than preseason AP ranking? 7
  • Finished worse than preseason AP ranking? 11
  • Finished same as preseason AP ranking? 1
  • Preseason top 5 team and finished as top 5 team? 7 out of 9
  • Started no worse than No. 6 each of last 7 years
    • Only finished outside top 6 one of those years (2013)

Penn State

  • 10 preseason AP spots
  • Finished better than preseason AP ranking? 2 (hasn’t happened since 2008)
  • Finished worse than preseason AP ranking? 6
  • Finished same as preseason AP ranking? 1 (2009)
  • Went from unranked in preseason to ranked? 2
  • All 3 preseason top 15 rankings produced top 25 finish

Purdue

  • 4 preseason AP spots (last was 2005)
  • Finished better than preseason AP ranking? 2
  • Finished worse than preseason AP ranking? 2
  • Went from unranked in preseason to ranked? 0
  • Haven’t finished in AP poll since 2003
  • Haven’t appeared in AP poll since 2007

Rutgers

  • 1 preseason AP spot (in Big East in 2007)
  • Finished better than preseason AP ranking? 0
  • Finished worse than preseason AP ranking? 1
  • Went from unranked in preseason to ranked? 1 (2006)
  • Have not appeared in AP Poll since joining B1G in 2014

Wisconsin

  • 16 preseason AP spots
  • Finished better than preseason AP ranking? 6
  • Finished worse than preseason AP ranking? 9
  • Went from unranked in preseason to ranked? 4
    • All 4 times started as unranked team in 21st century, finished ranked
  • Started and finished as top 10 team once (2017)
    • Other 3 top 10 starts produced finishes outside top 20

Team-by-team preseason AP rankings in 21st century:

  • 1. Ohio State, 20
  • 2. Wisconsin, 16
  • 3. Michigan, 14
  • 4. Nebraska, 12
  • 5. Penn State, 10
  • 6. Michigan State, 9
  • 7. Iowa, 7
  • 8. Purdue, 4
  • 9. Maryland, 3
  • T10. Illinois, 2
  • T10. Northwestern, 2
  • T12. Minnesota, 1
  • T12. Rutgers, 1
  • 14. Indiana, 0

So the team-by-team breakdown is telling. I thought it was fascinating — though not surprising — to see that a team like Nebraska has finished worse than its preseason AP ranking 10 of a possible 11 times. And Michigan finished worse than its preseason AP ranking 10 of a possible 13 times.

Meanwhile, Northwestern has gone from preseason unranked to ranked in 4 of the last 7 years. It’s also amazing to think that a program like Penn State last finished better than its preseason ranking in 2008.

Though I suppose that for the elite teams who get the high preseason ranking, it doesn’t take much for them to finish worse than where they started. Actually, not a single B1G team had MORE seasons finishing better than their preseason AP ranking than seasons of finishing worse than their preseason AP ranking.

There were a few other things I didn’t include there that I found interesting.

Here are the B1G teams who started unranked and finished as top 10 teams:

  • Iowa (2002, 2003, 2015)
  • Michigan State (2013)
  • Penn State (2005, 2016)
  • Wisconsin (2006, 2016)

And on the flip side, here are the B1G teams who started as top 10 teams and finished unranked:

  • Iowa (2010)
  • Michigan (2005)
  • Nebraska (2002 while in Big 12)
  • Wisconsin (2018)

Will Michigan or Ohio State join that club this year? They are the B1G’s top 10 teams to start the season, though neither of them have gone from top-10 to unranked in the 21st century.

The more likely scenario is that multiple B1G teams will start the season ranked and finished unranked. When you have 7 top 25 teams, that’s not so crazy. And it also wouldn’t be surprising if teams like Minnesota or Northwestern went from unranked to ranked.

What did we learn here today?

Well, being ranked in the preseason AP poll is by no means a deal-breaker. It doesn’t guarantee success, and starting unranked certainly doesn’t guarantee failure.

Oh, you already knew those things?

Well, hopefully you just learned some stats that you can use to support whatever argument your making to your friends/family members/co-workers/strangers that you encounter today.

Connor O'Gara

Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Tradition. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.