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No. 12 Michigan State hosts unranked Indiana on Tuesday night. Tip-off is at 7 pm, ET (Peacock).
The Spartans (14-2, 4-1 B1G) are riding a 2-game winning streak and looking to keep pace with the league leaders. Indiana (12-4, 3-2) needs a statement road win to climb back into contention.
The Spartans are 7-5-point home favorites.
IU guard Lamar Wilkerson (20.3 points per game) leads the Hoosiers. The Spartans counter with interior dominance from Jaxon Kohler, a legitimate double-double threat who is averaging 14.3 points and 10.06 rebounds per game.
We’ll analyze the Big Ten showdown and offer our best bet.
Indiana vs Michigan State Odds
The betting markets have installed Michigan State as a solid home favorite. The Spartans are laying 7.5 points, while the total sits at 142.5 points, suggesting oddsmakers expect a moderately paced affair.
| Betting Market | Away (Indiana) | Home (Michigan State) |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | +7.5 (-115) | -7.5 (-105) |
| Total | Over 142.5 (-110) | Under 142.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | +255 | -321 |
Odds via consensus odds as of Tuesday morning, January 13
The spread reflects MSU’s home-court advantage and superior résumé. That -321 moneyline tells the story of a significant talent gap in the oddsmakers’ eyes, making Indiana a substantial +255 road dog.
Breaking down the no-vig probabilities, the market implies Michigan State has a 76.22% chance to win outright, while Indiana checks in at 28.17%. For betting beginners, a $5 wager on the underdog Hoosiers would profit $12.75 if they pull the upset. Meanwhile, backing the favored Spartans would require risking $16.05 to win that same $5.
Team Statistics: Indiana vs Michigan State
Who has the edge? The metrics (RPI, NET) heavily favor Michigan State.
| Stat | Indiana | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| RPI Rank | 64 | 10 |
| NET Ranking | 34 | 14 |
| Points Per Game | 84.5 | 78.9 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 68.0 | 64.5 |
| Strength of Schedule (RPI) | 0.5276 | 0.6054 |
| 3-Point % | 36.4% | 35.9% |
| Turnovers Per Game | 10.1 | 12.0 |
Statistics from the 2025 regular season.
The advanced metrics paint a clear picture of why Michigan State commands respect, starting with the Spartans’ superior RPI and NET rankings, as well as more difficult schedule.
IU’s SOS calls into question its ability to score against legitimate defenses.
Betting Prediction and Best Play
The storylines portend a classic Big Ten grind-it-out affair, but the statistical evidence suggests Michigan State should control this game from the opening tip.
Michigan State’s rebounding dominance creates the clearest path to victory. That staggering +7.2 board advantage per game isn’t statistical noise – it’s a physical identity that translates directly into second-chance points and shortened possessions for opponents. Kohler’s interior presence, combined with 53 offensive rebounds on the season, gives the Spartans multiple bites at the apple while Indiana likely gets just one quality look per trip.
The résumé comparison further solidifies the case for Michigan State. Their #10 RPI ranking against legitimate competition (0.6054 SOS) dwarfs Indiana’s #65 mark against a softer schedule. The Hoosiers sit 0-2 against Top 50 RPI opponents and own a concerning 1-2 road record, while the Spartans have proven themselves against elite competition.
Indiana’s upset path requires near-perfect shooting efficiency, but executing that game plan inside the hostile Breslin Center against a defense allowing just 64.5 points per contest creates long odds. Michigan State will control tempo, dominate the paint battles, and gradually wear down the visitors over 40 minutes of physical Big Ten basketball.
Best Bet: Michigan State -7.0 (-110) via Bet365 on January 13
The Spartans have too many edges in the areas that matter most – interior presence, defensive intensity and home-court advantage. Not to mention Tom Izzo, ready to erase any sign of complacency that a mid-week game might bring. Lay the points with confidence in what should be a comfortable home victory.
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, Indianapolis Star and (Raleigh) News & Observer. He led Big Ten coverage for 7 years with the Indianapolis Star.