Indiana Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Hoosiers in 2025

Indiana took the college football world by storm last year under head coach Curt “Google Me” Cignetti.

The Hoosiers had an easy schedule, sure, but they dominated that schedule to the tune of an 11-1 regular-season record. The only loss for Indiana came at Ohio State in a 38-15 beatdown by the Buckeyes.

The Hoosiers survived some debate around whether or not they should make the 12-team Playoff field and earned themselves a Round 1 trip to Notre Dame, where they lost a tough 27-17 game.

QB Kurtis Rourke is gone, though. So is leading rusher Justice Ellison. Can Curt Cignetti get the Hoosiers back to the Playoff this year?

He’ll have to contend with a tougher road through the Big Ten to do it.

Here’s a look at Indiana’s 2025 schedule:

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Here’s a look at the Crystal Ball pieces we’ve done thus far:

• Illinois

Biggest Question Mark: The schedule

Fernando Mendoza is Rourke’s replacement. He comes to Bloomington via Cal, where he threw for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2024.

Top Indiana receiver Elijah Sarratt (53 catches, 957 yards, 8 touchdowns) is back, as is WR2 Omar Cooper Jr. (594 yards, 7 scores). That’s big.

On defense, Mikail Kamara is back. He had a team-leading 10 sacks last year. Amare Ferrell and his 4 interceptions return, too.

So what’s stopping the Hoosiers from getting back to the 12-team Playoff potentially? How about road trips to Oregon and Penn State?

In the first 2 years of the Cignetti era, Indiana will have had to visit Ohio State, Penn State and Oregon with none of those teams coming to Bloomington. That’s tough.

I also think the Hoosiers catch Illinois at a bad time to start Big Ten play. We’ll discuss that a bit more below.

Indiana Win Total Over/Under

Odds via BetMGM:

• Over 8.5: +110
• Under 8.5: -130

Bettors don’t think the Hoosiers have what it takes to get back into Playoff contention. Do I? Let’s find out, shall we?

Game-by-Game Predictions

Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for the Hoosiers:

Week 1: vs. Old Dominion (W)

Cignetti has been pretty open about not playing any strong teams in nonconference play. The Hoosiers canceled a series against Virginia to hammer that point home. So don’t expect Indiana to face much resistance against its 3 nonconference opponents this year. The Hoosiers roll at home over Old Dominion.

Week 2: vs. Kennesaw State (W)

Kennesaw State is No. 133 of 136 FBS teams in ESPN’s 2025 FPI rankings. The Hoosiers will have no trouble winning this game at home.

Week 3: vs. Indiana State (W)

The Hoosiers aren’t going to lose to an in-state FCS foe under Cignetti. He’ll have his team ready to roll in this one. Blowout victory for Indiana.

Week 4: vs. Illinois (L)

Oops. Suddenly the Hoosiers’ nonconference strategy backfires when a Playoff-contending Illinois squad comes to town. The Illini are far from battle-tested at this point, but they at least had to go to Duke to win earlier in the season. Illinois uses its defense to shut down an Indiana squad that is still working on replacing key players on both sides of the ball.

Week 5: at Iowa (L)

If this game was in Bloomington, I’d pick the Hoosiers. Instead, it’s at Kinnick Stadium. This will be one of the closest games of the season, but in the end, Iowa’s special teams help the Hawkeyes eke out a 1-point win at the last second.

Week 6: Bye

Coming off back-to-back losses, Indiana welcomes the chance to regroup. Unfortunately, a trip to Eugene awaits.

Week 7: at Oregon (L)

I googled Mendoza’s stats at Cal to see how he fared against Oregon last year. Oops. Guess I’m just not quite ready to let the Pac-12 die in my heart. Anyway, even with a new starting QB at Oregon, the Ducks have too much talent to lose this game at home.

Week 8: vs. Michigan State (W)

Michigan State should be better this year, but it isn’t quite “Beating Indiana” better. Mendoza settles in as Indiana’s starter and has his best Big Ten outing yet to lead the Hoosiers to their first conference win of the year.

Week 9: vs. UCLA (W)

Crossing time zones proved tough for Big Ten teams last year. Heading west was tough for eastern teams and heading east was tough for western teams. The Bruins head to Bloomington for this one. The Hoosiers are the better team on paper and prove it on the field.

Week 10: at Maryland (W)

Roman Hemby has a big game against his former team to lead the Hoosiers to a much-needed road victory. This win clinches bowl eligibility for Indiana, marking only the third time in the 21st century that the Hoosiers will play in bowl games in back-to-back years.

Week 11: at Penn State (L)

Penn State wins the games its supposed to win under James Franklin. This is a game the Nittany Lions will be favored in at home. They’ll take care of business comfortably against a Hoosier squad that doesn’t have the same level of depth.

Week 12: vs. Wisconsin (L)

A disappointed Indiana squad that just lost its last shred of hope to make the Playoff lets 1 loss turn into 2 when it hosts a Wisconsin team that I expect to be feisty this year. Billy Edwards Jr. out-duels Mendoza to lead the Badgers to an impressive road win.

Week 13: Bye

This is pretty late in the year for a second bye week, but the Hoosiers will take it after back-to-back losses.

Week 14: at Purdue (W)

Purdue will be better this year under first-year head coach Barry Odom. But it won’t be enough to stop Indiana. The angry Hoosiers pick up win No. 7 in convincing fashion to end the regular season.

2025 Projection: 7-5 overall, (4-5 in Big Ten play), 10th in Big Ten

A winning record is nothing to turn your nose up about at Indiana. But after last year’s Playoff berth, a 7-5 regular season will be a bit tough to feel excited about for Hoosier Nation.

12-team Playoff berth? No

The Hoosiers likely need to go 10-2 with this schedule to earn a second-straight Playoff berth. They’ll come up significantly short of that in Year 2 under Cignetti. Maybe in 2026, one of the Big Ten powers will actually come play a game in Bloomington, though. One can hope.