Indiana vs. Alabama: Rose Bowl best bet

Let SEC fans continue to wonder whether Indiana football is for real.

Since the day Curt Cignetti arrived, all the Hoosiers have done is prove people wrong.

Now comes the biggest challenge in program history: Taking down blue-blood Alabama in the Rose Bowl on New Year’s Day. Kickoff for the Playoff quarterfinal is set for 4 pm, ET, Thursday.

You’d be hard-pressed to find a greater disparity in all-time wins (Alabama, 984; Indiana 507) at this stage of a season. But history won’t help the Tide on Thursday, just like it won’t hurt the Hoosiers.

What has transpired to this point this season is one reason the Hoosiers are a 7-point favorite at most sportsbooks.

Let’s break it down and offer our best bet for the Rose Bowl.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs Indiana Hoosiers Odds

The sportsbooks have made a definitive statement about this Rose Bowl Playoff quarterfinal, installing Indiana as clear favorites despite Alabama’s championship pedigree. The line has moved from an opening spread of 6.5 points to a full touchdown, reflecting sharp money backing the Hoosiers’ explosive offense.

Team	Spread	Moneyline	Total
Alabama Crimson Tide	+7 (-112)	+206	Over 48.5 (-105)
Indiana Hoosiers	-7 (-108)	-253	Under 48.5 (-116)

Odds courtesy of consensus data on December 31st.)

The moneyline prices tell the story of market confidence, with Indiana sitting at -253 while Alabama carries +206 odds. The total of 48.5 points seems surprisingly conservative given the Hoosiers’ offensive firepower, with slight value favoring the under at -116.

Based on the current moneyline odds, the no-vig implied probabilities are:

• Indiana Hoosiers: 68.7% chance to win
• Alabama Crimson Tide: 31.3% chance to win

For moneyline bettors, a successful $10 wager on underdog Alabama would profit $20.60, while backing favored Indiana requires risking $25.30 to profit $10.

Rose Bowl Best Bet

The statistical narrative strongly supports Indiana’s status as favorites, with Mendoza powering an offense that nobody yet has contained.

Here’s the concern: Alabama has more NFL-ready talent and finally is healthy. Hoosiers fans will emphatically dispute that claim as meaningless, and point to the Big Ten Championship win over Ohio State as proof.

Fair enough.

But as you examine how both teams operate, it becomes clear that this will be more of a defensive battle than the oddsmakers expect.

Alabama struggles to run the football — and that’s putting it mildly. The Tide’s ability to score depends mostly on Ty Simpson’s ability to play like the Heisman candidate he was most of the season. When he does, the Tide are formidable. When he doesn’t, Alabama’s offense lags.

Indiana limited Ohio State to 10 points. It held Oregon to 20.

The Hoosiers don’t have nearly as many NFL Draft prospects as those teams or Alabama, but they’re physical in the trenches, schematically sound and opportunistic.

IU has forced 25 turnovers this season — 8th-most in the country.

Most analysis points to both teams’ scoring averages to suggest the Over can be exceeded.

We don’t think so. If Indiana can make Alabama one-dimensional and pressure Simpson (IU has 39 sacks this season), the Hoosiers can force the mistakes they’ve forced all season. Alabama has explosive wideouts, but its group isn’t better than Ohio State’s.

BetMGM has the Under at 48.5 (-115). We think that’s the best Rose Bowl bet.

Fernando Mendoza vs Ty Simpson

Mendoza won the Heisman Trophy in 2025. Simpson was in the race most of the year. Here’s how they stack up ahead of the Rose Bowl Playoff quarterfinal.

Passing Metric	Fernando Mendoza	Ty Simpson
Passing Yards	2,980	3,500
TDs	33	28
INTs	6	5
30-yard completions	21	18

One key? Indiana averages 221 yards rushing, repeatedly taking advantage of schemes designed to limit Mendoza.

Simpson has no such luxury. The Tide average just 109 yards rushing per game — its worst showing since the 1950s.

Statistical breakdown

Offensive Stat	Alabama	Indiana
Points Per Game	31.1	41.9
Total Yards Per Game	380.1	472.8
Passing Yards Per Game	270.2	251.6
Rushing Yards Per Game	109.9	221.2
3rd Down Conversion %	42.5%	55.8%
Red Zone TD/FG %	88.1%	90.8%

Defensive & Turnover Stat	Alabama	Indiana
Sacks	30	39
Interceptions	11	17
Fumbles Recovered	8	8
Total Turnovers Forced	19	25
Turnovers Committed	12	8
Turnover Differential	+7	+17

It’s easy for SEC fans to dismiss Indiana’s numbers as being inflated by an inferior schedule. There’s some truth in that, but the tape doesn’t lie. Oregon and Ohio State struggled mightily in losses to the Hoosiers.

Rose Bowl weather conditions and impact

Notably, and surprisingly, weather could become a significant factor as Southern California continues to deal with heavy rains. Any adverse weather would disproportionately impact Alabama’s pass-heavy offensive approach.

Indiana’s versatile offensive system appears more weather-resistant. The Hoosiers better equipped to handle any environmental challenges that arise in Pasadena.