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Indiana vs. Oregon: Best bets for CFP semifinal showdown
By Chris Wright
Published:
Revenge? Or repeat?
That’s the backstory when Indiana (14-0) plays Oregon (13-1) in the Peach Bowl College Football Playoff semifinal Friday night in Atlanta. Kickoff is set for 7:30 pm, ET (ESPN). The winner advances to the national championship game on Monday, Jan. 19 in suburban Miami.
Indiana handed Oregon its only defeat this season, picking off Dante Moore twice in a 30-20 win at Eugene that stamped the Hoosiers as legitimate national championship contenders.
We break down Round 2 and offer our best bets about the Playoff semifinal.
Oregon Ducks vs Indiana Hoosiers Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread |
|---|---|---|
| Oregon Ducks | +151 | +3.5 (-107) |
| Indiana Hoosiers | -182 | -3.5 (-113) |
| Total | Over 46.5 (-110) | Under 46.5 (-110) |
(Consensus odds are from January 7, 2026)
The consensus betting markets have positioned Indiana as the favorites in this postseason clash, listing the Hoosiers with moneyline odds of -182 and favoring them by 3.5 points. Oregon enters as the underdog at +151 to win outright. Despite both teams boasting offenses that average over 37 points per game, and playing under perfect conditions in Mercedes-Benz Stadium, the consensus total has risen only slightly to a modest 46.5 points.
Based on the current moneyline odds, the implied no-vig probabilities for this contest are:
- Indiana Hoosiers: 61.8%
- Oregon Ducks: 38.2%
For bettors, a successful $10 wager on the favored Hoosiers’ moneyline would profit $5.49, while a winning $10 bet on the underdog Ducks would yield a more substantial profit of $15.10.
Oregon vs Indiana: Expert Picks & College Football Playoff Prediction
Do the numbers lie? Oregon entered its Week 7 showdown against Indiana with a similarly impressive offensive resume — and the Hoosiers intercepted Dante Moore twice and held the Ducks to 20 points.
If you’re an Oregon fan, you’re playing the what-if game and hoping this time, the Ducks play turnover-free football. Nobody in America forces more turnovers than Indiana (26), but Oregon is close. The Ducks have forced 21 turnovers, second in the country. Can they win the turnover battle in the Playoff semifinal?
Ultimately, we’ve seen the Hoosiers respond under duress time and again this season. Mendoza’s last-second TD pass to Omar Cooper Jr. to beat Penn State might be the play of the year. It certainly summarized the Hoosiers’ resilience.
We like Indiana to keep it going and cover the spread.
Pick: Indiana -3.5 (-113) at Bet365 Sportsbook
The Hoosiers are not just a high-scoring team; they are methodical and clinical in execution. Their remarkable 56.5% conversion rate on third down stands in stark contrast to Oregon’s respectable but lower 45.4%. This advantage in keeping the offense on the field compounds in the red zone, where Indiana converts 91.2% of their trips into scores. Furthermore, Indiana boasts a massive +18 turnover differential, double Oregon’s +9 mark. In a playoff atmosphere where every possession matters, Indiana’s discipline and efficiency in crucial game situations provide a clear path to covering the 3.5-point spread. The Hoosiers demonstrate their ability to handle close-game pressure.
Pick: Over 46.5 (-110) at BetMGM Sportsbook
The game total of 46.5 points appears unusually conservative for a contest featuring two offensive juggernauts. Indiana averages 41.6 points per game on their own, while Oregon puts up 37.9. Their combined scoring average approaches 80 points per game throughout the regular season. While playoff intensity can sometimes lead to tighter defensive battles, this line represents a significant deviation from both teams’ established offensive identities. Given the firepower on both sidelines and their proven ability to generate explosive plays, betting on these air raid and ground-and-pound hybrid offenses to exceed this modest total presents solid value.
NFL TD BONUS BETS
BET NOWQB Battle: Fernando Mendoza vs Dante Moore
Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza got the better of Dante Moore in the regular season. Here’s how they stack up heading into the Playoff semifinal.
| Statistic | Dante Moore | Fernando Mendoza |
|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards | 3,280 | 3,172 |
| TD passes | 28 | 36 |
| INTs | 9 | 6 |
| 30+ yard completions | 19 | 24 |
Repeating the obvious, but Moore has to take care of the football. His 2 interceptions doomed any chance Oregon had of coming back in its 30-20 regular-season loss.
Mendoza has looked human a few times this season, but Oregon needs to pressure him into making uncharacteristic mistakes. The issue is: Mendoza recognizes and handles the blitz better than any college quarterback in the country.
Oregon vs Indiana: Statistical Breakdown
Who has the edge in the Playoff semifinal?
| Key Stat (Offense) | Oregon | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 38.0 | 41.6 |
| 3rd-down % | 79-of-173 (45.7) | 96-of-170 (56.5%) |
| Red-zone scores | 50-of-59 (84.8%) | 62-of-68 (91.2%) |
| Red-zone TDs | 38-of-59 (64.4%) | 49-of-68 (72.1%) |
| Turnovers | 12 | 8 |
| Key Stat (Defense) | Oregon | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover Differential | +9 | +18 |
| Sacks | 29 | 42 |
| Interceptions | 15 | 17 |
| Fumbles Recovered | 6 | 9 |
The most telling statistic remains the turnover differential, where Indiana boasts a phenomenal +18 mark that doubles Oregon’s impressive +9. It has been the driving force for Indiana all season. As long as that doesn’t dramatically change on Friday night, we expect Indiana to cover as both teams combine to hit the over.
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, Indianapolis Star and (Raleigh) News & Observer. He led Big Ten coverage for 7 years with the Indianapolis Star.