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Iowa Crystal Ball: Predicting every game for the Hawkeyes in 2025
By Adam Spencer
Published:
The Iowa Hawkeyes are entering a new era this fall. Gone is star RB Kaleb Johnson. He was a third-round NFL Draft pick in 2025.
The Hawkeyes also lost TE Luke Lachey and a pair of offensive linemen to the draft. This offense will be reworked under coach Kirk Ferentz.
Can new QB Mark Gronowski, a 4-year starter at South Dakota State, step in and provide at least some semblance of a passing attack this fall? Hawkeye fans are already excited:
Simple 5-yard out route? Or the best pass Iowa fans have seen in years? The answer may be both.
Today, we’ll attempt to predict every game on Iowa’s regular-season schedule. After going 8-5 last year, can the Hawkeyes make another push toward postseason play?
Here’s a look at the Crystal Ball pieces we’ve done thus far:
Now, let’s dive into the Hawkeyes. Here’s a look at the schedule facing Ferentz and company:
Biggest Question Mark: Who will step up in the running game?
Replacing Kaleb Johnson won’t be easy. He ran 240 times in 2024 for a Big Ten-best 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns. Just replacing the volume of his carries will be difficult, let alone trying to patch together 80% of his production.
Under Gronowski, the passing game should at least show some signs of life this fall, which will take pressure off the running game. But the Hawkeyes need Kamari Moulton to step up in a big way. He finished second on the team with 84 carries for 473 yards and 3 scores in 2024.
As a redshirt sophomore, Moulton has waited his turn and will now get a chance to shoulder an RB1 workload this year. Can he be the next great Iowa running back? He’s shown flashes of brilliance, but we’ll find out the answer to this question starting Aug. 30 against UAlbany.
His ability to develop into a top-half Big Ten running back will likely determine the ceiling for the Hawkeyes’ offense.
Iowa Win Total Over/Under
Odds via BetMGM:
- Over 7.5 wins: +110
- Under 7.5 wins: -135
Game-by-Game Predictions
Here’s how I see the 2025 regular season playing out for the Hawkeyes:
Week 1: vs. Albany (W)
I didn’t even realize UAlbany had a football team. This isn’t lacrosse, so Iowa wins without breaking much of a sweat.
Week 2: at Iowa State (L)
The Cyclones are expected to be in the hunt for the Big 12 title. This game is in Ames, which makes it a tougher task for the Hawkeyes. New Iowa QB Mark Gronowski is still finding his footing in a new system and ends up making a costly mistake down the stretch in a 1-score loss.
Week 3: vs. UMass (W)
The Hawkeyes take care of business easily at home against one of the worst FBS teams in the country. If UMass scores multiple times, it’ll be an issue.
Week 4: at Rutgers (W)
Iowa starts Big Ten play with a road trip to Rutgers that isn’t as easy as it might seem. In a low-scoring, grind-it-out game (is there any other kind for the Hawkeyes?), Iowa’s special teams seal the win late.
Week 5: vs. Indiana (W)
I think Indiana takes a step back this year after going 11-1 last year during the regular season. The Hoosiers come to Kinnick already with 1 loss on their résumé after facing Illinois and leave Iowa with loss No. 2. This is a big momentum-building victory for Kirk Ferentz and company.
Week 6: Bye
However, they don’t get to take advantage of their 3-game winning streak as the first bye of the season comes in Week 6.
Week 7: at Wisconsin (L)
I’m higher than consensus on Wisconsin this year. I think Camp Randall is going to be a tough place to play in 2025. The Hawkeyes will find that out firsthand in this game. Wisconsin moves the ball surprisingly well through the air and gets enough defensive stops to win.
Week 8: vs. Penn State (L)
Maybe, just maybe, if this game was at Kinnick I’d pick the Hawkeyes. But it isn’t. It’s in Happy Valley. Drew Allar and the Nittany Lions roll to a multi-score victory in this battle.
Week 9: vs. Minnesota (W)
Iowa gets a chance to bounce back with a struggling Minnesota team. Gronowski has his best game in an Iowa uniform and leads the Hawkeyes to a convincing victory.
Week 10: Bye
The Hawkeyes get a week off following a win again. But the next 2 games are tough ones.
Week 11: vs. Oregon (L)
This will be a tough week to catch the Ducks. Even off a bye week, the Hawkeyes can’t get past the Ducks. (Oregon is also off in Week 10.) Dante Moore is fully settled in as the Ducks’ QB1 by this point, but it’s Makhi Hughes and the Oregon running game that proves to be too much for Iowa.
Week 12: at USC (L)
We saw last year that teams having to jump multiple time zones struggled. I think that’ll continue this year. I am also of the belief that USC is going to take a step forward under Lincoln Riley this season. The Hawkeyes defense gives the Trojans problems in the first half, but USC gets the close win.
Week 13: vs. Michigan State (W)
Michigan State isn’t going to be very good this year (spoiler alert). This game is at Kinnick. Even by the time the fans wave to the children’s hospital next door at the end of the first quarter, Iowa will have a comfortable lead. The Hawkeyes don’t look back in an easy win.
Week 14: at Nebraska (W)
Winning on the road is never easy, but the Hawkeyes have dominated this series, winning the last 6 matchups in Lincoln. That doesn’t change this year, as Iowa makes it 7-straight at Nebraska’s home stadium to close out the regular season.
2025 Projection: 7-5 overall (5-4 in Big Ten play), 8th in Big Ten
The Hawkeyes start and end Big Ten play on winning streaks, but 4 losses in 5 games in the middle of the year makes this a mediocre, middle-of-the-pack finish for Iowa.
12-Team Playoff Berth? No
I don’t need to tell you that a 7-5 overall record doesn’t get you into the Playoff. It’s a fine season for the Hawkeyes, but nothing to write home about. Maybe they’ll get a bowl game other than the Music City or Citrus Bowls this year, though.
A 2012 graduate of the University of Missouri, Adam is the news editor across all Saturday Football brands.