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The first USA Today/Coaches Top 25 poll came out this week, and there were 5 Big Ten teams in it.
There was, however, a notable omission. No, I’m not talking about Michigan, which did not remotely resemble a Top 25 team last season. It’s the reigning Big Ten West champions, the Fighting Rece Davises, everyone’s favorite underdog — well, as long as you can stomach the tweets from the media alumni.
Northwestern, which has won the West in 2 of the last 3 years, failed to crack the Top 25. We’ll see about the preseason AP poll, which comes out Monday. The Wildcats did get some votes and are the de facto No. 27 team in the country.
Has Northwestern been wronged? A few of my colleagues think so. Our very own Dustin Schutte wrote in his takeaways column that “Northwestern is snubbed.” Connor O’Gara from Saturday Down South put Northwestern at No. 24 in his preseason Top 25.
I actually think Northwestern nearly being ranked is a sign of respect, because it wouldn’t have been anywhere near my Top 25. Not this season.
Pat Fitzgerald does more with less than perhaps any coach in college football, but he is working in so many new guys this season that I would be pleasantly surprised if Northwestern finishes the season in the Top 25. That would rank among his finest coaching jobs.
This is a weird season thanks to the free year of eligibility due to the pandemic, as 11 out of 14 B1G teams have at least 16 starters back. There are some teams that are returning as many as 20 or 21 starters (Minnesota and Rutgers, respectively). How many does Northwestern have back? Just 8.
In Bill Connelly’s annual returning production column, he ranked Northwestern 126th out of 127 FBS teams. In his SP+ ratings that came out this week, he had Northwestern as 76th in the country. Why is this relevant? A computer model like Connelly’s doesn’t take into account the narrative surrounding a program, like how Fitzgerald might find a way with a bunch of 2-star and 3-star recruits. Actual human beings who are voting do take the narrative of a program into account.
(In fact, you could argue that is what happened with Michigan, which has finished the season in the top 20 in 4 of Jim Harbaugh’s 6 seasons. Yet because everyone is down on Harbaugh relative to expectations, the Wolverines aren’t ranked, even though they are loaded with blue-chip recruits.)
Many teams that are ranked in the preseason have a track record of success, like Northwestern does, but mostly, they either recruit well or have a returning starter at QB. Northwestern doesn’t fall into either of those categories.
Northwestern is on its third transfer QB in 3 seasons. Last year, it worked out with Peyton Ramsey. The year before, it flopped with Hunter Johnson. Transfers, while a hot commodity in today’s game, are an unknown. For every Justin Fields, there’s a Tate Martell who doesn’t make much of an impact.
There’s also the threat of Northwestern bottoming out, like in 2019 when it was one of the worst Power 5 programs in the country and finished 3-9, with wins against UNLV, UMass and Illinois. As great as Northwestern is, it suffers puzzling non-conference losses on an almost annual basis: Western Michigan and Illinois State in 2016, Duke by 24 in 2017 and Duke and Akron in 2018 (when it wound up winning the West!).
In the offseason, Northwestern lost 2 of its top 3 running backs to the transfer portal. It is replacing its top 4 receivers, top 2 tacklers and a first-round cornerback. The QB, Ryan Hilinski, has a nice recruiting pedigree as the No. 2 pocket passer in the 2019 class, but he was beat out at a South Carolina program that is 6-16 the last 2 seasons. Oh, not to mention longtime defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz retired after last season and athletic director Jim Phillips left to be the ACC commissioner.
Could Northwestern be really good this season? Of course. The Wildcats went 7-2 last season against an all-B1G schedule (plus Auburn in the Citrus Bowl) — and the No. 13 overall pick in the NFL Draft (Rashawn Slater) didn’t play a single snap! With Northwestern, the whole is always greater than the sum of its parts.
The fact that Northwestern came so close to being ranked is a compliment to the program, not an insult. With so many unknowns coming into this season, voters are putting their faith in one of the sport’s best coaches. No one is quite sure how Northwestern is going to do it this year, but there is some blind faith that Fitzgerald will find a way.
That’s a sign of respect.
Ryan O'Gara is the lead columnist for Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @RyanOGara.