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Maryland football: Best-case, worst-case scenarios for 2021

Scott Schultz

By Scott Schultz

Published:


Entering the 2021 season, Maryland coach Mike Locksley finds himself with what would appear to be 2 possible teams — really good, or really bad. In 2020, the Terps’ offense ranked high in explosiveness but mediocre at best for efficiency. In their 5 games, Maryland scored 3, 45, 35, 11 and 24 points, so consistency will be a key in 2021.

Maryland’s high points came in back-to-back weeks, overcoming a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit to topple Minnesota 45-44 in overtime, and then taking advantage of a ridiculous receiving day by 5-star prospect Rakim Jarrett to down a hapless Penn State team 35-19.

But they were sandwiched between plenty of bad as they were blasted by Northwestern 43-3 in the season opener, and ended the COVID-shortened season with back-to-back losses to Indiana and Rutgers.

The question heading into this fall is, will there be more highs and fewer lows, or vice-versa?

Looking at the best-case scenarios are pretty good, but conversely, the worst-case possibilities are pretty grim.

Best: The offense explodes, consistently

Maryland’s ground game has been the mainstay for years, but last season, the passing attack jumped on the stage. The Terps threw for over 240 yards in every game but one last season, and their quarterbacks managed to complete over 60%. The mark is the highest in over a decade, and they return 85% of last season’s offensive production. If the level of experience on the offensive side can smooth over the lows and raise the highs, the Terps will be an offense that will be trouble for anyone trying to stop them.

Worst: The turnover woes continue

Last season’s 2-3 record reflected the volatility of the Maryland squad, averaging 24 points a game while allowing 32. Looking at the stat lines, the turnovers seemed to dictate who won or lost during Maryland’s 2020 season. They limited turnovers to just 2 during the 2 wins, both against Minnesota. But on the season, they were only able to manage 4 takeaways, resulting in a turnover margin of -7. The -1.4/game TO ratio ranked 123rd out of 127 teams. If that continues, look for a grim and early end to the 2021 season.

Best: Tagovailoa brings the goods

During the win against Minnesota, Tagovailoa accounted for 450 yards and 5 touchdowns. It was a sign of what “could” happen when things are going right for the transfer from Alabama. Tagovailoa threw for over 1,000 yards in his 4 games in 2020, with a 61.5% completion rate and covered 8.3 yards/attempt. He needs to work on his consistency and avoiding losses behind the line — the Terps posted 2 games of negative yardage rushing, and the line yielded 3.2 sacks per game. But if the showing against Minnesota can be repeated, and consistently, look out.

Worst: The rushing defense continues to falter

Four of the 5 Maryland games in 2020 saw the Terps defense allow at least 234 yards rushing, and they finished 79th in rushing success rate allowed. Five-star linebacker Terrence Lewis comes to College Park along with a pair of ESPN 300 linebackers, but they will need to develop some chemistry, and quickly, to improve that mark. To bring things along, Locksley brought in veteran defensive coordinator Brian Stewart, but the new mix of faces need to jell quickly and consistently to get the job done or B1G rushers will continue to run roughshod over the Terps defense.

Best: Just 3 losses and a top-tier bowl bid

Maryland has the good fortune of not having a Top 25 team in their non-conference schedule, and then only having Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa, and likely T-25 drop-off Penn State on their conference slate. So for a best-case, let’s assume they manage to top West Virginia at home in the opener and start the season rolling with a 4-0 record when they host Iowa to open October.

Other than the Buckeyes, all those big B1G games are at College Park, and any or all of them could be a surprise win-column entry for the Terps if they’re on a roll — that is, should all things be firing for Tagovailoa and company on the offense and the defense holds serve. So if we’re looking at “best” cases, they can take one of those three. A Penix, Jr./Tagovailoa shootout during the Indiana game could be tough on the Terps defense so that’s an unlikely win, but either Iowa or Penn State could be a surprise.

In the case of a 9-3 record, look for a bowl bid on New Year’s Day, maybe even an Outback or Citrus Bowl nod.

Worst: A stumble out of the gate, and the rest of the way

If the Terps can’t step up at home and top West Virginia in the season opener, they’ll have three relatively easy games to get it together, with Howard, Illinois and Kent State to follow. But a home opening stumble doesn’t set the tone for the conference matchups that are on the horizon.

Those “go-either-way” games can easily go the other way, and Maryland could find themselves scrambling for wins. Only Michigan State and Rutgers jump off the page as “should-wins” if the Terps are having trouble finding momentum. If so, a 5-7 finish wouldn’t be out of the question, along with another offseason of looking for answers.

Scott Schultz

Scott Schultz covers Michigan State Football, along with Breaking News for B1G Football & Basketball for Saturday Tradition. He also serves as an Automotive News Editor & Writer, and Softball Writer elsewhere on the web. Follow him on Twitter @SRSchultz.