Michigan football: Why the Wolverines’ offense is the key to success in 2023

Michigan is entering the 2023 campaign with massive expectations, ranked No. 2 in both the AP and coaches’ polls.

The formula that has led the Wolverines to back-to-back trips to the College Football Playoff has been simple: Play elite defense. Keep tough games close. Lean on a safe, run-heavy offense to eat up the clock and avoid turnovers.

Michigan finished last season as the 3rd best defense in the country according to a panel of ESPN writers. In the Wolverines’ 13 victories, the defense shined against both the pass and the run, giving up 191.8 yards per game through the air and just 85.2 on the ground. The Wolverines allowed just 13.4 points per game prior to their 51-45 CFP semifinal loss to TCU. Even after that, they still finished 7th in the country at 16.1 ppg allowed and 6th in total defense (Georgia was 10th).

Those are impressive stats to say the least. But an elite defense — both subjectively and statistically — clearly wasn’t enough to win a national title.

In the shootout against TCU, the Horned Frogs were able to put up 488 yards, with a balance of passing (225) and rushing (263).

Why the offense is the key in 2023 

While its defense dominated for most of the season, Michigan finished 2022 ranked No. 24 in the country in total offense. The Wolverines averaged an impressive 458.8 yards and 40.4 points (No. 6) per contest, relying heavily on the run game. Michigan was one of 3 teams in the top 30 of total offense with more yards rushing than passing. While that isn’t always a bad thing, it became evident that JJ McCarthy struggled under pressure when it was up to him to beat TCU through the air. He threw 2 costly interceptions, likely the difference that kept Michigan from a title game rematch with Georgia.

JJ McCarthy has to take the next step

Jim Harbaugh has alluded to the idea that Michigan will pass more this season, and Michigan’s 9th-year head coach believes McCarthy is ready to take a major step in his development.

McCarthy is a legitimate Heisman contender this year. His stats from 2022 are impressive. Taking over the starting job in Week 2, the former 5-star recruit finished the year with 2,719 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and just 5 interceptions.

But with the running back duo of Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards — who will still be a massive part of Michigan’s game plan in 2023 — McCarthy was often asked to play more of a “game manager” role. In 6 of his 13 starts, he threw for less than 200 yards.

McCarthy only surpassed 300 yards passing once in 2022, and it came in the Playoff loss to TCU. In comparison, Caleb Williams — last year’s Heisman winner — threw for more than 300 yards in 8 of his outings, surpassing the 400-yard mark 3 times, with a high of 470.

It’s clear Harbaugh understands McCarthy has the ability to thrive as an elite college quarterback.

“Everything that he does athletically, everything that he does throwing the football are at the elite level,” Harbaugh said last month. “And then I think the thing that makes him the most special, differentiating good and great, is that he’s willing to do anything for his teammates, anything for his team. I think I’d compare him to [NFL stars] Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen … .”

Finding the perfect balance

Michigan ran the ball on 62% of its plays last year, averaging 42.9 rush attempts per game vs. 26.4 passes. For comparison, Georgia, last year’s national title winner, was far more balanced (just 37.1 to 32.9 in favor of running plays).

It would be crazy for any offensive coordinator to not utilize the dynamic duo of  Corum and Edwards in the backfield, but if the Wolverines are going to finally get over the hump and win a national title, they need to finish in the top 10 in total offense. And that means letting McCarthy utilize those tools Harbaugh so profusely praised on a more frequent basis.

Michigan has the talent at wide receiver to attack defenses vertically, giving McCarthy options to find completions downfield, especially off play-action.

Cornelius Johnson and Roman Wilson respectively ranked 4th and 8th out of 49 qualified Big Ten pass-catchers last fall in yards per reception, at 15.6 and 15.0 yards. They also ranked 9th and 3rd in the Big Ten in yards after the catch, averaging 7.3 and 6.3 per reception, respectively.

Beyond those expected top 2 starters at wideout (now that Ronnie Bell is gone), Michigan believes it has a future star tight end in Colston Loveland, who is already drawing comparisons to Jake Butt. The 6-5, 237-pound target showed flashes of his potential at the end of last season, catching 11 passes for 196 yards and 2 touchdowns in the last 5 games for the Wolverines. He is joined by Indiana transfer AJ Barner, who hauled in 28 receptions for 199 yards and 3 touchdowns for the Hoosiers in 2022.

There are plenty of reasons for Michigan fans to be optimistic with the new season starting in just a few days.

ESPN ranks the Michigan defense as the No. 2 unit in the country this season, and that’s nothing new in Ann Arbor. But if Harbaugh and the Wolverines are going to come away from 2023 with college football’s ultimate prize, it’s time for the offense to deliver the same kind of production.

Sean Labar