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Michigan football: Only way Wolverines lose to TCU is if they beat themselves
By Adam Biggers
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At this point, the only team that seems capable of beating Michigan is Michigan.
Thirteen teams have tried this year, but not one has been successful.
But, due to their own fault, the Wolverines almost handed themselves 2 losses this year.
Currently 7.5-point favorites, the No. 2-ranked Wolverines face No. 3 TCU on New Year’s Eve in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Arizona. The winner will face either No. 1 Georgia or No. 4 Ohio State in the College Football Playoff national championship game. Beat Georgia in a CFP revenge match or hurdle the Buckeyes for the second time this season — either way, the end results could certainly be sweet for coach Jim Harbaugh’s Wolverines.
Oddly enough, the only 2 teams that really gave Michigan any trouble this season weren’t anywhere near powerhouses or CFP contenders. The Wolverines topped Illinois, 19-17, after leading 7-3 at the break. Two weeks later, during the B1G championship, the Wolverines needed an ideal second half to get past Purdue, which trailed just 14-13 at the break before losing 43-22 in Indianapolis.
Michigan State forced Michigan to rely on the right foot of kicker Jake Moody, but the Wolverines still won 29-7 thanks to 5 field goals from one of the best clutch performers in college football.
Yes, the only way the Horned Frogs, who are known for comeback wins in 2022, beat Michigan is if Michigan allows itself to be beaten. With a lethal combination of speed and skill on both sides of the ball, it’s highly unlikely that the Wolverines will be overpowered on New Year’s Eve in Arizona.
Michigan is a power-first team that, subsequently, can also win with finesse. TCU, on the other hand, almost solely relies upon its speed. In essence, TCU has one gear, while the Wolverines have at least 2 or 3 gears.
“A little bit of contrasting styles. We’re a little bit more of a team that relies on speed,” said Sonny Dykes, head coach at TCU. “But I think the one thing that has made our team special is we’re a fast team, and we’re also a very physical team. Our goal is to always try to dominate the line of scrimmage and win the line of scrimmage.
“It will be a big challenge for us on Saturday. But we look forward to the challenge. I think it’s going to be really critical for us to be able to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the football. It will be a challenge. But, again, our guys are looking forward to it, excited about it.
“I think, as I said, our team is kind of known for its speed. But I really do think that this team is a physical, tough, tough-minded football team, and we’ve had a lot of success this year.”
As is the case with all games, the team that limits mistakes and scores the most points always comes out with a victory. With that being said, the Horned Frogs rarely turn over the ball, ranking No. 19 in turnover margin. The same can be said for Michigan, which ranks No. 21.
Interceptions probably won’t come into play Saturday, but fumbles could end up being a deciding factor. Michigan has lost just 3 fumbles this season, compared to 6 by TCU. Both teams have only thrown 4 picks this year — so a mistake through the air doesn’t seem as likely as a possible botched handoff or careless carry by a receiver or running back.
Establishing the run game, and early, will be of the utmost importance for the Wolverines. Donovan Edwards showed few ill effects from a right hand injury against Purdue, and now has had another 4 weeks to heal. With him leading the way, the Wolverines should be able to dominate TCU, which has the No. 67-ranked rush defense (149.5 yards per game).
Michigan didn’t run the ball well in the first half against Illinois or Purdue, which in turn allowed for the games to be closer than anticipated.
It all seems relatively simple: If Michigan plays its game, it shouldn’t have a problem dumping TCU. Contain the Horned Frogs’ speed, force them to take long-ball shots out of desperation — and everything should come out in favor of the Wolverines.
Whether it was against Ohio State, Michigan State or Penn State, the Wolverines found ways to get past their most difficult tests of the regular season. And when it came time to turn up the volume on the Boilers during the B1G championship game, Michigan didn’t falter in the least bit.
The 2022 Wolverines aren’t necessarily juggernauts or world-beaters. They do have flaws. They do have room to improve. But as long as Harbaugh’s team sticks to the script and does what it does best, Michigan will end up in the CFP national championship game.
Adam Biggers brings his expertise on the Michigan beat to Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @AdamBiggers81.