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Michigan State football: What’s at stake in season finale at Penn State?
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Win, and you’re in. Lose, better luck next season.
Sometimes life can be that simple. It’ll be that simple for Michigan State next week in its season-finale road trip to State College to face No. 11 Penn State.
The Spartans were less than 30 minutes from becoming bowl eligible for the 2nd time in the Mel Tucker era on Saturday. Offensively, things were cooking early against visiting Indiana. Michigan State finished with a season-high 540 yards of offense. Quarterback Payton Thorne found his rhythm with Keon Coleman, connecting 8 times with his top receiver for 107 yards and a touchdown. The run game, known this season more for stalling than kicking into high gear, totaled a season-best 242 yards and 5 yards per carry.
But despite the gaudy numbers, things went south in the second half. The defense allowed Indiana to score 24 unanswered points and tie the game at 31. Thanks to a missed 22-yard field goal from Ben Patton with 2 seconds left in regulation, fans were treated to an extra period of football.
Scratch that, make it 2 periods.
The Spartans could have ended any doubt about their bowl status with a chip shot at home. Now, after a 39-31 double-overtime loss, they must play perfect football against a Nittany Lions squad that’s looking to make its own splash.
This has been the story for Sparty all season. A close game one week. Complete implosion the next. A big-time win that gives the fan base hope the following weekend. It’s been a copy-and-paste phenomenon since October.
Seriously, look back at the season. The Spartans played close but fell short in a 27-13 loss to Maryland. A week later, Ohio State torched Tucker’s defense for 614 yards en route to a 49-20 win. After that, Michigan State picked up a much-needed 34-28 win over Wisconsin.
A close win at Rutgers, followed by implosion against the Hoosiers? That means a win is up next, right?
Here’s what’s on the line for Michigan State come Saturday against Penn State.
A sub-.500 season
Following its 29-7 loss to Michigan, this was expected. The Spartans had games against then-No. 15 Illinois, meaning every other game would need to be a win.
All that changed following the 23-15 upset in Champaign. That was followed up by a 27-21 road win over Rutgers. Conversations shifted from Holiday offseason plans to potential bowl destinations.
Should Michigan State fall in Happy Valley, it’ll mark just the 1st losing full season since 2016. It’ll also mark the 2nd since 2010 and the 7th since 2000.
While Mark Dantonio might have dropped the ball once every blue moon, Tucker would finish below .500 for the 2nd time since being hired (including 2-5 in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season). And while the COVID season should be taken with a grain of salt, this is a coach who is set to make over $9 million next season.
Two losing seasons? Two more reasons for long-term concerns.
More time for Tucker
Teams are allotted 15 practices to prepare for a bowl game. With the College Football Playoff out of the picture, players looking to transfer or go pro could likely elect to sit out of the bowl game.
For Tucker, that’s not entirely a negative. It gives him an early look at next year’s roster and those who will be suiting up for another go round. In those 15 practices, he’ll be able to figure out the flaws on both sides of the ball.
But to get those extra practice sessions, he’ll need an upset at Penn State.
Another top-15 win
Michigan State’s best win of the season came against then-No. 15 Illinois. To paint the scene, the victory came after multiple MSU players were suspended indefinitely following the tunnel brawl that occurred following the Battle of Paul Bunyan.
Even with horrendous clock management by Tucker in the closing minutes, a win is a win. A top-15 win goes far for morale and perhaps even further when trying to cool off a hot seat. One might seem like a fluke. Two? There’s something brewing.
Penn State enters Saturday with a chance to pick up its first double-digit-wins season since 2019. Sean Clifford has the chance to tie the program’s all-time win record, while freshman phenom Nicholas Singleton could potentially surpass 1,000 rushing yards in Year 1 of his promising career.
A win for the Nittany Lions also keeps them in contention for a potential New Year’s 6 berth. Not to mention, it’s the last home game of the year. Everyone wants to leave something out there for the fans, right? Imagine having the moment be spoiled by a lesser opponent.
Speaking of which …
A chance at redemption
The lasting image left for Michigan State fans this season is Indiana’s Dexter Williams completing 2 passes yet the Hoosiers somehow winning in double overtime. Williams, who finished with more yards as a runner than a passer (86-31), helped the Hoosiers complete a 17-point comeback in the 2nd half and force the game into overtime.
That’s not Michigan State’s standard. It can’t be the standard entering next season.
The Spartans don’t need to pull off the upset. On paper, the Nittany Lions are the superior team. On the field, James Franklin’s program can back that up.
The Spartans need to show fight. They need grit. When drives by Penn State’s offense are stalling, Michigan State must capitalize. When the offense is humming, it needs to be to the tune of at least 3 points.
Saturday’s loss to a 4-7 Indiana squad isn’t Tucker’s worst blunder with the program, but it could be his most embarrassing. Blowing a 17-point lead to a sub.-500 team with a chance to be bowl eligible only adds more fuel to the hot seat flames.
Not everyone gets a chance at redemption. Michigan State will have 2 come next week at Beaver Stadium. The 1st is to earn 1 more game in 2022. The 2nd? Proof, even if it comes in a loss, that Sparty is in capable hands under Tucker entering next season.
Cole Thompson is a freelance writer for Saturday Tradition who has covered college football and the NFL for multiple websites. Thompson is currently based in Houston, Texas, and also can be heard daily on SportsMap National Radio's 'Just Sayin It' from 3am-6am.