Ad Disclosure
The 2025 regular season didn’t go as planned for Michigan. Or Texas.
The Wolverines finished 9-3, were never seriously in the B1G title hunt and lost to Ohio State. And then it got worse: The Wolverines fired head coach Sherrone Moore with cause for misconduct.
Texas also finished 9-3. The Longhorns were in the Playoff hunt until the end, though, behind a resurgent Arch Manning. The Longhorns finished 13th in the final Playoff ranking.
Consider their Citrus Bowl showdown (3 pm, ET, Wednesday on ESPN) an opportunity for redemption for both teams.
Michigan opened as a 4.5-point underdog at most sportsbooks, but that consensus line has grown to 7.5 on Dec. 30. We break down what matters most and offer our best bet for the Citrus Bowl.
Michigan vs Texas Citrus Bowl Odds
The betting markets have established Michigan as a significant underdog. The consensus odds reflect strong confidence in Texas not to to win outright but also cover.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Wolverines | +7.5 (-113) | +250 | Over 48.5 (-107) |
| Texas Longhorns | -7.5 (-107) | -311 | Under 48.5 (-114) |
Texas enters with a moneyline of -311, indicating substantial oddsmaker confidence in a Longhorns victory. Michigan sits as the underdog at +250, requiring the Wolverines to either win outright or lose by fewer than 8 points to cover the spread. The game total reflects expectations of a moderately high-scoring affair.
Based on current moneyline odds, the implied win probabilities (with sportsbook vig removed) are:
- Texas Longhorns: Implied win probability is 75.7%
- Michigan Wolverines: Implied win probability is 28.6%
For bettors, a successful $10 wager on the favored Longhorns would net a profit of $3.21, while a winning $10 bet on the underdog Wolverines would yield a more substantial profit of $25.
Texas vs Michigan Betting Picks and Predictions
Moore’s firing complicated Texas’ ability to scout the Wolverines. Before being promoted to head coach, Moore was the Wolverines’ offensive coordinator.
One constant? Texas will have to stop Michigan QB Bryce Underwood (2,229 yards with 9 TD passes). Like Manning, Underwood was the top QB recruit in the 2025 class. His freshman season has been bumpy, but the tools are undeniable.
Michgian’s quest is more straightfoward: Stop Manning.
Manning finished the season on an upward swing, playing the back half of the schedule like the Heisman threat he was billed to be. Manning enters the Citrus Bowl with 2,942 yards and, barring something unforeseen, should become the next Texas QB — and next Manning — to throw for 3,000 yards in a season.
Turnovers turn most games, and if you’re a Michigan fan, it’s a concern: Texas’ turnover margin is +12 this season, compared to Michigan’s modest +3.
Those factors, plus the unsettled nature of Michigan’s mindset, we like the Longhorns to cover the spread.
Best Bet: Texas -7 (-115) at DraftKings on Dec. 30.
Both teams have demonstrated exceptional red zone efficiency, with Texas converting at an 84.4% clip while Michigan succeeds at a notable rate. Rather than settling for field goals, these offenses consistently finish drives with touchdowns. The Longhorns’ quick-strike capability through the air could force Michigan into a higher-tempo game than they prefer, leading to more possessions and additional scoring opportunities for both sides. With two offenses combining to average a significant number of points per game, this total appears conservative.
Secondary Bet: Over 48.5 (-108)
SPORTSBOOK
Statistical Breakdown: Who has the edge?
Michigan will aim to control the clock with its running game.
| Offensive Stat | Michigan | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 27.6 | 29.6 |
| Total Yards Per Game | 398.9 | 382.8 |
| Passing Yards Per Game | 185.8 | 253.2 |
| Rushing Yards Per Game | 213.2 | 129.7 |
Michigan’s methodical running game allows the Wolverines to dictate game flow and maintain field position advantages. Texas counters with an explosive passing game averaging 253.2 yards per game, which drives the Longhorns’ slight scoring advantage at 29.6 points per contest.
Situational football and defensive pressure
Key situational metrics highlight where each team creates advantages, particularly in turnover creation and pressure generation that can shift momentum in critical moments.
| Key Metric | Michigan | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Turnover Differential | +3 | +12 |
| Sacks | 28.0 | 38.0 |
| 3rd Down Conversion % | 46.3% | 40.0% |
| Red Zone Offense % | 78.7% | 84.4% |
Again, Texas finished 7th in the country in turnover margin (+12 advantage). If they force Underwood into bad throws, Michigan isn’t built to erase deficits.
Injury Report
Texas and Michigan are managing the typical challenges of player opt-outs that have become common in non-playoff bowl games.
Texas is without 3 defensive starters who are preparing for the NFL Draft: CB Jaylon Guilbeau, LB Anthony Hill Jr., and safety Michael Taaffe.
Texas star edge rusher Colin Simmons is expected to play — and his ability to wreck a game figures heavily into our pregame betting strategy.
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, Indianapolis Star and (Raleigh) News & Observer. He led Big Ten coverage for 7 years with the Indianapolis Star.