Minnesota football: Gophers get another shot in the B1G West, but is it a realistic one?

Minnesota football has filled a number of roles in the B1G West this season. From early frontrunner, to upset loss,  and later a division afterthought, it’s been a year of ups and downs for the Gophers.

Despite all that, Minnesota enters Week 12 with a shot in the division and a chance to reach Indianapolis as B1G West champions. But in order to get there, the Gophers will need to fill another role: Underdog winner in 2 games that Minnesota is likely to be outmatched in, at least on paper.

So, there remains a shot in the West. But considering the current deck of cards at PJ Fleck’s disposal, is it a realistic shot for the Gophers in the West?

On Saturday, Minnesota continued its bounce-back trend with a 31-3 drubbing of powerless Northwestern. Athan Kaliakmanis got the start and improved to 1-1 as the starter for the Gophers in place of Tanner Morgan, but that does not tell the full story.

In Week 12, Minnesota will put its 3-game winning streak on the line against Iowa. The Hawkeyes have won 7 straight in the matchup, and it’s not a particularly strong matchup for the Gophers and star running back Mohamed Ibrahim.

Ibrahim’s best game against the Gophers came in 2020 when he rushed for 144 yards but did not have a touchdown. However, he was not particularly effective while needing 33 carries to get there.

Some of the struggles in the game also stem from the passing attack. While Ibrahim can feast on the ground, he is undoubtedly at his best when the passing attack takes some of the pressure off. In the 2020 loss to Iowa, Tanner Morgan completed 48.5% of his passes for 167 yards with a touchdown and 2 interceptions.

In the win over Northwestern, Minnesota attempted 13 passes with Kaliakmanis under center for 64 yards passing. During the second half of the win over Nebraska, Kaliakmanis did throw for 137 yards, but that came on 6-of-12 passes with a few big gainers boosting those numbers.

That kind of passing attack can work against a 1-9 Northwestern team and a Nebraska team that is still in shambles post-Scott Frost. Against Iowa? That’s another story entirely.

Of all the well-documented struggles for the Hawkeyes this season, the defense has not been one of them. And for good reason. Iowa’s defense is giving up just 3.8 yards per play and 260.7 yards per game, and the numbers get even better against the run.

Per game, the Hawkeyes are currently giving up 88.6 yards on the ground and a staggering 2.5 yards per carry. Most recently, Iowa held Wisconsin to 68 rushing yards combined between Braelon Allen and Isaac Guerendo. Allen — who is averaging 5.4 yards per carry in 2022 — was held to 40 yards on 17 carries for 2.4 yards per carry.

So, yeah, Minnesota absolutely has a shot in the B1G West. That’s a real fact. But it’s no secret the ground game alone is not going to get things done against a suddenly hot Iowa team and staunch Phil Parker defense.

With or without Tanner Morgan, Minnesota will need to rely on Ibrahim while also opening things up against the Hawkeyes. Unfortunately, that’s going to be a tough task, even at home, in Week 12.

Paul Harvey

Paul is a lifelong fan and student of all things college football. He has been covering college football since 2017 and the B1G since 2018.