Ad Disclosure
Your humble columnist recently wrote a column outlining how Penn State could knock off Ohio State this weekend. It took some work. Because to be honest, it’s far, far more likely that Ohio State blasts Penn State into next week. Here’s the other side of the coin — 5 reasons that Ohio State will thump Penn State on Saturday.
1) Penn State’s offense doesn’t have enough thump
Beating Ohio State takes some offensive work. Whether it’s Oregon putting up over 500 yards and 35 points in week 2, or Alabama racking up 621 yards and 52 points in last year’s title game (or Purdue putting up 49 points in 2018), Ohio State doesn’t lose 17-14 kinds of games. The 2021 Penn State team, with the exception of games against Villanova and Ball State, hasn’t shown much offensive punch. They’ve otherwise topped out at 408 yards and 28 points. Even if they reached those marks (and the yardage one came against Indiana, for goodness sake), that won’t give them a shot against Ohio State.
2) The PSU defense hasn’t played a good offense
OK, so if Penn State hasn’t won games off its offense, it must be the defense. Yes, Penn State does have good defensive numbers (14.7 points per game, 324 yards per game allowed) — at least on first glimpse. The problem? Penn State has defeated exactly 1 team with an offense in the top 90 in FBS in total yardage — Auburn, which is 31st. Meanwhile, Ohio State’s offense is … 1st in total yardage. OSU has averaged 559 yards per game, and Wisconsin (the 2nd-highest-ranked offense Penn State has defeated) averages 365 yards per game. For that matter, Penn State just lost consecutive games to the No. 119 and No. 112 offenses in the country. Holding Ohio State under 50 might be a good day for the Nittany Lions.
3) James Franklin-gate can’t be good for Penn State
Anybody who has followed James Franklin’s career isn’t terribly surprised with his one-foot-out-the-door ways. But his name being linked to Southern Cal and LSU, his press conference snafu with referencing only worrying about Illinois (who he just lost to) instead of Ohio State, and his very public change of agent all are distractions that a Penn State team on a 2-game losing streak can live without. Franklin has behaved like a coach whose heart just isn’t in his current gig. And that isn’t a good thing when you’re about to play as an 18.5-point underdog.
4) Penn State can’t hold the ball
Now, granted, in light of the first 2 points above, it’s probably absurd to look for Penn State to slow the game down, limit possessions, etc. But it’s even more absurd because Penn State hasn’t done a good job of that yet this year. For the season, Penn State’s time of possession averages out at just under 27 1/2 minutes per game. Granted, Ohio State averages a few seconds less. But it’s one thing to not hold the ball because you’re putting up 49 points and 559 yards per game. It’s another to do it to put up 27 points and 373 yards per game.
5) Schedule, momentum not PSU’s friends
Finally, Penn State could really use momentum its schedule working to its advantage. But the Lions don’t have that. Coming into this game off a 2-game losing streak, any momentum that PSU built in rising into the top 10 is long gone. Meanwhile, Ohio State had a bye week and then an easy win over Indiana. The Buckeyes are in a good place, emotionally and physically — they should be healthy and relatively rested and are playing some of their best football, with a schedule that will ease back off before heading into those very interesting final 2 weeks of B1G play. And they’re not going to squander that momentum by losing to Penn State.
Veteran college writer Joe Cox covers Ohio State and college basketball for Saturday Tradition.