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It was the best of times (OR) it was the worst of times. With that one little conjunction, Charles Dickens could have moved from discussing 18th century France to discussing Ohio State football 2021. The only question is which side of the “or” the Buckeyes will end up on. For the Buckeyes, the desired destination is obvious. Anything less than ultimate success is written off by some. What could we really see in 2021? You want good news, you want bad news, we’ve got you covered.
Best: Olave (or Wilson) wins the Heisman
Wide receivers are the new halfbacks, in terms of Heisman winning. The forward pass has re-emerged. With a team like Ohio State, where the quarterback is sure to be previously unknown, a big-time pass-catcher will get the spotlight. Chris Olave feels a shade more likely to be the top dog than Garrett Wilson, but that is entirely subject to change. Whichever guy takes the lead could well end up with a 90-100 catch season, north of 1,500 receiving yards, and well beyond a dozen touchdowns. If OSU executes at a team level, the Heisman could well switch hands from a receiver to a receiver, and it would not be shocking if a Buckeye ended up winning.
Worst: The pass defense really is broken
There are tons of excuses for why OSU went from allowing to 260 total yards per game in 2019 to allowing 304 PASSING yards per game in 2020. It was a COVID season, the pass rush had fallen off some, the secondary didn’t have much experience, and Kevin Coombs was a new coordinator. It’s highly likely that most of those issues are gone and thus the secondary is at least good again. And it could be even better. But what if the issues in Wilson’s defense are systemic, and OSU again struggles to rein in opposing playmakers?
Best: The young pass rushers really are that good
When you recruit like the Buckeyes do, there’s plenty of breakthrough candidates in any particular season. But Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau are in another class. Last season, OSU’s sack total slid to 21 from 54 back in 2019. There’s no doubt that some of the struggle of the Buckeyes secondary landed on a front line that wasn’t putting QBs on their backside frequently enough. But Sawyer and Tuimoloau don’t look like freshmen, apparently aren’t playing like freshmen, and should easily vault OSU back into the top rungs of defensive rankings. It’s not like the cupboard is bare if either struggles, but the OSU defensive line snagged a couple of next-level guys who could foreseeably each do next-level things in 2021.
Worst: Several QBs = no QBs
The quarterback derby is definitely a point of some concern in Columbus, where not since 1952 has OSU started the season without a QB with any prior collegiate passing attempts. The good news is that this job should be fairly simple. Behind a steady offensive line, hand off to a bevy of talented backs or throw the ball to a pair of All-America receivers. Whoever the OSU QB is, at least early, he only will need to be a game manager. Make the easy plays, don’t make the big mistakes. And there’s no reason to think that any of the QB derby contestants wouldn’t do that. The worst thing that could happen is turmoil. Whoever wins the job, if he can be steady and hold it, that’ll improve continuity and focus around the locker room. But if C.J. Stroud starts, gets yanked, and then Kyle McCord struggles, and the talk goes to Quinn Ewers, well, it could be a tumultuous season.
Best: 15-0, CFP win
Well, why not? Ryan Day is 23-2. When “at Indiana” is the most challenging game on your conference schedule, you really should be in pretty good shape (that may have been Michigan shade right there). It’s been since 2018 when OSU last lost a conference game. The non-conference schedule does feature Oregon, but the game’s in Columbus. So it all comes down to the CFP. A 13-0 Ohio State team wouldn’t be outside the top 2, and might well hold the top spot, which would be an advantage. Is OSU gaining on Clemson and Bama? There’s no real way to know. But the Buckeyes seem to have a fairly short path to the title. Looking around the OSU roster, there are a handful of difference-maker type players who could push them over the top. Will they? That’s what we’re all waiting to see.
Worst: An early loss and then lethargy (10-2)
For OSU, the floor is not mediocrity, it’s irrelevancy. One scary possibility is an early loss. Opening at Minnesota and against Oregon was a gutsy move. Doing it with a new QB, a new group of linebackers, and plenty of freshmen playing from day one could backfire. Take an early loss in one of those and then throw in a midseason clunker and Ohio State could well be 9-3 or a soft 10-2. Even if the Buckeyes win the Big Ten, if they’re not firing on all cylinders, they could be setting up the league for another disappointing CFP performance. But the worst season literally possible for OSU would end in a dispirited performance in a lower-tier New Year’s Day bowl game. About 100-plus FBS programs would consider that a fine ceiling.
Veteran college writer Joe Cox covers Ohio State and college basketball for Saturday Tradition.