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Ohio State Football: 5 reasons the Buckeyes should be nervous
By Joe Cox
Published:
Ohio State is a massive favorite Saturday against Notre Dame. It’s rare to see 2 schools ranked 3 spots apart in the poll with a 17.5-point spread between them. And some– this writer included– have all but started the coronation of OSU. But for the more paranoid members of Buckeye Nation, we’re here for you too.
Here are 5 reasons that OSU should be genuinely nervous — not exactly scared, of course — but nervous facing Notre Dame.
1) Michael Mayer
It’s worth the endless joke that he’s actually Michael Myers, because the Notre Dame tight end is as vicious as a killer on the offensive end of the field. Notre Dame doesn’t have a roster full of future NFL guys like OSU does. But Mayer is one of those guys, and in fact, he could be the best tight end in the country. A year ago, he caught 71 passes for 840 yards and 7 touchdowns, leading the Irish in catches, tying for the team lead in receiving scores, and missing the lead in receiving yardage by 48 yards. At 6-5 and 251 pounds, Mayer is strong enough to run through the OSU secondary and fast enough to outrace the linebackers. He’s a massive mismatch for whoever covers him.
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2) Knowles’s history with Notre Dame
Much of OSU’s hopes for 2022 are pinned on new defensive coordinator Jim Knowles being a massive improvement. That’s logical, but Knowles’s past work against Notre Dame isn’t exactly encouraging. His final game at Oklahoma State was a Fiesta Bowl match with the Irish, and Notre Dame passed for 509 yards against his defense. Yes, Oklahoma State won, but a 37-35 win like they nabbed would just spell Kevin Coombs 2.0 for the Buckeye faithful. Which isn’t losing, but isn’t much better.
3) Notre Dame’s pass rush
Ohio State is breaking in a couple of new offensive line starters and Notre Dame is likely to bring a fairly fearsome pass rush. A year ago, the Irish had 41 sacks. While Ohio State protects CJ Stroud well — allowing just 17 sacks in 2021 — it’s worth noting that in the Buckeyes’ 2 losses, they allowed an average of 3 sacks. In their 11 wins, they allowed just 1 sack per game. Notre Dame’s Isaiah Foskey (11 sacks last year) has to be contained, or the Buckeyes could have some struggles.
4) Solid run defense
Notre Dame gives up about 3.8 yards per carry. They did it in 2021. And 2020. And 2019. And 2018. Get the point? They’ll give up about 3.8 yards per carry in 2022. Only 3 teams in 2021 rushed for 4+ yards per carry against the Irish (and Notre Dame went 2-1 in those games). Meanwhile, Ohio State was 1-1 last year when held to 3.8 yards per carry (that ugly win over Nebraska and the Michigan loss). The Buckeyes were 2-2 in their 4 lowest rushing output games. If Notre Dame can put OSU in obvious passing situations (see point 3 above), things could get interesting.
5) It’s Week 1
Chaos still matters in college football. Don’t believe it? How many upsets happen in Week 1? A year ago in Week 1, FCS Montana beat a ranked Washington team. FCS East Tennessee beat Vandy. Georgia Tech was a 19-point favorite against Northern Illinois … and lost. Utah State as a 17.5-point dog beat bowl-bound Washington State. Look, there are plenty more. This isn’t an unwinnable game for Notre Dame. It’s certainly not a game that they can’t keep competitive. Ohio State has spent a long offseason talking about how they’re better than they were a year ago. But on the field, anything can (and probably will) happen.
Veteran college writer Joe Cox covers Ohio State and college basketball for Saturday Tradition.