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Ohio State football: Predicting the Buckeyes’ final record in 2023

Jeff Gilbert

By Jeff Gilbert

Published:

Ryan Day assessed the 2022 Ohio State season that ended with successive defeats to archrival Michigan and Georgia. His response: make the entire offseason about internal competition.

Make the team tougher. Make it better able to survive 4 quarters against the best teams on the schedule. The idea created winners and losers in every drill, every scrimmage time in practice, everything he could think of. So far Day’s method has produced the desired results.

The No. 3 Buckeyes went to No. 9 Notre Dame on Sept. 30 and won 17-14 on a last-minute touchdown drive. First-year quarterback Kyle McCord led the drive that ended with 1 second on the clock when Chip Trayanum scored from the 1-yard line.

On Saturday, the Buckeyes took on the nation’s top-ranked defense in No. 7 Penn State. The Buckeyes showed a defense of their own not seen in a long time in Columbus against a highly ranked team and won 20-12.

Ohio State is the only team with 2 top-10 victories. They are well positioned for the first Playoff rankings on Oct. 31.

The Buckeyes allowed 167 yards, and only 6 in the second half, until the Nittany Lions drove 73 yards for a late and meaningless touchdown. Penn State converted only 1 of 16 third-down attempts and was forced to throw the ball more than it wanted to.

“They were a team that could drive the ball,” Buckeyes defensive coordinator Jim Knowles said. “So we wanted to get them in situations where they had to throw the ball down the field.”

The Buckeyes gained 365 yards against a defense that had been allowing only 193.7. Marvin Harrison Jr. gained 162 of those yards on 11 catches, including a clinching touchdown with 4:07 left.

Defense and Harrison are the Buckeyes’ strengths. McCord’s consistency must improve. The running game needs starting running back TreVeyon Henderson to be healthy. He’s missed 3 straight games, and the Buckeyes miss his big-play ability that the other backs just don’t have.

The Ohio State national defensive ranks:

  • Scoring: Ohio State maintained its N0. 3 ranking at 10 points a game. They trail only Penn State and Michigan.
  • Total defense: Ohio State moved up from No. 7 to No. 4 at 260.1 yards per game.
  • Passing defense: Ohio State barely slipped from No. 4 to No. 6 at 159.6 yards per game.
  • Rushing defense: Ohio State moved up from No. 22 to No. 18 at 100.6 yards per game.

This team did not enter the season with the look of a team that could go 12-0. But after a 7-0 start with a dominant defense, here’s how the Buckeyes should finish the 2023 season.

Week 9: Ohio State at Wisconsin

Skinny: The storyline in Madison is new head coach Luke Fickell facing his alma mater. A night game at Camp Randall Stadium will surely be rowdy. But Ohio State’s defense will muffle that crowd going against an offense ranked No. 78 in scoring and No. 65 in total offense. Expect Henderson back in the OSU lineup and thus a better running game. And, of course, Harrison making big plays. As Fickell rebuilds the Badgers, expect this matchup to be more competitive going forward. But not yet.

Prediction: Ohio State 41, Wisconsin 10

Week 10: Ohio State at Rutgers

Skinny: Greg Schiano’s work in New Jersey is commendable, but the Scarlet Knights aren’t close to the Scarlet and Gray. Will Rutgers ever beat Ohio State? Nothing is impossible, but it’s difficult to envision a future in which that happens.

Prediction: Ohio State 34, Rutgers 12

Week 11: Ohio State vs. Michigan State

Skinny: The Spartans didn’t score against Michigan on Saturday night, so it is difficult to imagine them finding the end zone in a night game in the Horseshoe. The Spartans have surprised the Buckeyes in the past. But those teams were coached by Nick Saban and Mark Dantonio. No matter how slow Ohio State’s offense might start, this game will never be close.

Prediction: Ohio State 49, Michigan State 3

Week 12: Ohio State vs. Minnesota

Skinny: PJ Fleck’s program got a big win Saturday night at No. 24 Iowa. The Gophers needed only 12 points to do it, but getting 12 points and staying remotely close to the Buckeyes seems about as likely as a warm day on Nov. 18. The Gophers last beat the Buckeyes in 2000.

Prediction: Ohio State 38, Minnesota 6

Week 13: Ohio State at Michigan

Skinny: Defenses will collide. Which one can best control the opponents’ best players? The past 2 years, Ohio State has had no answer for Michigan’s running game or quarterback JJ McCarthy. Last year, Harrison and Emeka Egbuka both had over 100 yards receiving in a 45-23 defeat. This game will come down to big plays. The Buckeyes are finally stopping the big plays, and their big-play threats (Harrison, Egbuka, Henderson) are more difficult to stop.

Prediction: Ohio State 24, Michigan 20

Final Ohio State regular-season record: 12-0

Jeff Gilbert