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Ohio State football: Why this weekend’s UM might be scary … and why it might not
By Joe Cox
Published:
The old adage is that fans can look ahead on the schedule, but players can’t. That would certainly be the case for Ohio State, a week ahead of the annual tilt with Michigan.
The Buckeyes have to face Maryland first, and that could be scary … or not. At first glimpse, there are plenty of reasons for the Buckeyes to be concerned by the Terrapins, maybe even on upset alert. But a second look says OSU should be fine. Here’s the breakdown.
Are Terps scary good?
Scary because: Maryland gave Michigan its best game of the season.
Not scary because: More recently, Maryland scored 10 points against Wisconsin and Penn State … combined.
Breakdown: Yes, the Terps played the Wolverines well back in Week 4, losing 34-27. At that point in the season, Maryland was averaging almost 35 points per game and had surpassed 400 yards of offense in each of its first 3 games, and finished with 397 yards against Michigan.
But the Terps’ offense has gotten flatter than a neglected spare tire in recent weeks. In the past 2 weeks, Maryland has produced just 323 yards. TOTAL. Maryland hasn’t done much to be impressed with since that Michigan game. In their other conference games, Maryland beat Michigan State by 14, Indiana by 5 and Northwestern by 7. Meanwhile, the Terps lost to Purdue by 2, Wisconsin by 13 and Penn State by 30. It’s hard to imagine a team that was outgained by Wisconsin 355-189 or by Penn State 413-134 having the firepower to outlast Ohio State.
A scary good quarterback?
Scary because: Taulia Tagovailoa is an NFL caliber quarterback.
Not scary because: Post-injury Taulia has been pretty shaky.
Breakdown: With Tagovailoa at the helm, Maryland passed for 214 or more yards in each of its first 7 games. But in the last 3, Maryland has thrown for 166, 77 and 74 yards. Tagovailoa went from averaging 6.9 or more yards per pass in the first 7 games to 3.3 yards and 3.4 yards in the last 2. What happened? He suffered an ugly injury against Indiana, leaving backup Billy Edwards Jr. to win the game. Post-injury, Taulia is definitely not at 100%. If he was going to rattle the OSU defense, he’s probably not going to now.
Scary defense?
Scary because: Maryland’s bend-but-don’t-break defense has been pretty good.
Not scary because: It hasn’t seen an offense like Ohio State’s.
Breakdown: One area where Maryland has been successful is in holding opponents out of the end zone once they’re in the red zone. Only 52.4% of opponents’ red zone trips have ended in touchdowns. (That’s actually a better rate than the Ohio State defense’s 58.8%.) Only 78.6% (5th best in the B1G) of opposing red zone trips ended in any score.
BUT …
Only 3 of Maryland’s 10 opponents rank in the top 60 in the nation in scoring. That’s SMU, Michigan and Penn State. Only the Penn State game was played after September. In 4 of Maryland’s past 5 games, all opposing red zone possessions were converted into touchdowns. Not unlike the Maryland offense, the red-zone defense had its moments … but they were long ago.
Scary trap game?
Scary because: Ohio State could overlook the Terps.
Not scary because: Ohio State hasn’t overlooked anybody yet.
Breakdown: Sure, the Buckeyes are capable of a sloppy drive, quarter or half. But Ohio State hasn’t failed to show up for any opponent yet. Yes, the Northwestern game was sloppy, but that was largely a matter of horrific weather rather than Ohio State overlooking the Wildcats. Yes, the Notre Dame and Penn State games were a little sloppy … but the defense made big plays late to seal the victories.
It’s certainly not impossible that OSU looks past Maryland. But it is really unlikely.
Veteran college writer Joe Cox covers Ohio State and college basketball for Saturday Tradition.