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Ohio State vs Miami: Cotton Bowl Playoff preview, prediction
By Chris Wright
Published:
Defending national champion Ohio State opens its bid to become college football’s first repeat national champion since Georgia (2021-22) when the Buckeyes face Miami in the Cotton Bowl. Kickoff is set for 7:30 pm, ET, Wednesday (ESPN).
Miami advanced after outlasting Texas A&M 10-3 in the opening round of the Playoff. Ohio State earned a first-round bye as the No. 2 seed.
Expect fireworks — even though Ohio State OC Brian Hartline already has been named head coach at USF. Hartline has insisted his focus is entirely on the task at hand: winning another championship. Ohio State averages 34.9 points per game behind Heisman finalist QB Julian Sayin and the most dangerous receiver in the country, sophomore Jeremiah Smith.
Miami knows all about Smith, of course. Smith was the nation’s No. 1 recruit in the 2024 class, starring at nearby Chaminade-Madonna in Broward County. This week, Smith told reporters at the Cotton Bowl that he “probably” would have signed with Miami had the Canes been more Playoff ready. Instead, he has a chance to end their season.
Though the pieces are entirely different, these programs have shared championship drama. Ohio State beat defending champion Miami 31-24 in the BCS Championship Game to cap the 2002 season.
Here’s our detailed preview, plus our expert betting advice for the Cotton Bowl Playoff quarterfinal.
Ohio State vs Miami Odds
| Betting Market | Ohio State | Miami |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | -9.5 (-110) | +9.5 (-110) |
| Moneyline | -357 | +283 |
| Total | Over 40.5 (-116) | Under 40.5 (-104) |
(Odds courtesy of consensus data on December 30th.)
The sportsbooks have installed Ohio State as a 9.5-point favorite. The moneyline heavily favors the Buckeyes at -357, while Miami sits at +283 as the underdog. The game total dropped slightly from 41.5 to 40.5, suggesting bettors anticipate a more defensive affair.
Removing the vig from the moneyline odds, Ohio State carries an implied probability of approximately 75.0% to advance to the Playoff semifinals, while Miami’s upset chances sit at 25.0%. A successful $10 wager on favored Ohio State would yield a modest $2.80 profit, while backing the underdog Hurricanes would return $28.30 on the same investment.
Cotton Bowl betting analysis
Ohio State deserves favorite status, but the 9.5-point spread at DraftKings Sportsbook creates substantial value on Miami’s side. Bettors in Ohio can take advantage of our DraftKings Ohio promo code to wager on the Cotton Bowl.
Miami has a +11 turnover differential and 41 sacks — which is tied for 4th in the country.
The determining factor is whether Miami’s defense can replicate that havoc against an Ohio State offense that has allowed just 11 sacks and committed just 9 turnovers. Sayin threw 31 TD passes against just 6 interceptions.
Several situational angles also favor Miami. Playoff Underdogs of 7+ points have been competitive since the format’s inception. Miami’s opportunistic style mirrors past Playoff upsets where turnover differential proved decisive.
For the total, the 40.5 line appears conservative given both offenses’ capabilities. Ohio State’s 34.9 points per game and Miami’s 32.1 average suggest these teams should combine for more points. The Hurricanes’ exceptional 90.9% red zone efficiency indicates they capitalize on scoring opportunities, while Ohio State’s 54.9% third-down conversion rate keeps drives alive. We like the Over.
Best Bet: Miami +9.5 (-110) at DraftKings on Dec. 30
Second bet: Over 40.5 (-115) at DraftKings on Dec. 30
SPORTSBOOK
Carson Beck vs Julian Sayin
Sayin is Ohio State’s latest plug-and-play success story. He blossomed into a Heisman finalist, taking full advantage of the best receiving corps in the country to throw for 3,323 yards while leading the nation in completion percentage (78.4%).
Miami QB Carson Beck is 2nd in completion percentage (74.5%) but doesn’t do quite as much damage downfield. Beck leads an offense that maximizes red-zone opportunities. The Hurricanes’ remarkable 90.9% red-zone efficiency demonstrates a QB who excels in high-pressure scoring situations. None bigger than Beck’s game-winning throw to Malachi Toney in the final minutes to take down Texas A&M in the first-round of the College Football Playoff.
Here’s how the QBs stack up:
| Passing Statistics | Julian Sayin | Carson Beck |
|---|---|---|
| Passing Yards/Game | 255.6 | 244.2 |
| Touchdowns | 31 | 26 |
| Interceptions | 6 | 10 |
| 40+yard completions | 16 | 9 |
The statistical comparison reveals two productive aerial attacks with slight edges in different areas. The biggest difference is Sayin’s ability to stretch the field, with Smith and Carnell Tate waiting on the other end.
As dynamic and versatile as Ohio State’s offense is, we believe Miami’s front, anchored by NFL-ready talents in Rueben Bain (7.5 sacks) and Akheem Mesidor (8.5 sacks), will be disruptive enough to prevent the blowout. They combined for 19 pressures and 5 sacks in the first-round win at Texas A&M. If they come anywhere close to replicating that performance, Miami might do more than merely cover the spread.
Chris Wright is a 30-time APSE award-winning editor with previous stints at the Miami Herald, Indianapolis Star and (Raleigh) News & Observer. He led Big Ten coverage for 7 years with the Indianapolis Star.