Penn State football: Final thoughts, prediction ahead of home-opener vs. Ohio

When’s the last time Penn State just flat-out hammered a non-conference opponent?

Winning comfortably is one thing, and the Nittany Lions made that happen against Ball State and Villanova last year.

But a program of Penn State’s lineage should thrash MAC and FCS teams more often than not. You’d have to go back to the 2019 opener against Idaho to find a result that truly fits that description.

James Franklin’s squad could really use that kind of game. A confidence and ego booster. Proof that PSU plays a different tier of football than the Group of 5 and below.

Ohio will trek 5+ hours by bus to provide such an opportunity, but the Bobcats might not be the home-opener fodder Penn State fans are hoping to see on Saturday. The Lions, still unranked but up to 27th from 29th in AP poll points, will take the field for the noon kickoff at Beaver Stadium as 24.5-point favorites. But even coming off a 3-9 season, the Bobcats might not be quite the doormat they’re cracked up to be.

Why Ohio might compete

Prior to last year under then first-year coach Tim Albin, Ohio’s last losing season was in 2008. Ohio contended in the MAC most of the years in between under former coach Frank Solich, and Albin had worked under Solich since 2005 before taking the reins. He’s not a newcomer or a rookie, and he has some decent players back.

“We’re looking forward to the challenge,” he said during his media session this week. “Our program’s very excited to play a Big Ten school.”

Quarterback Kurtis Rourke began his 3rd season as the starter last week with a 41-38 victory over Florida Atlantic, going 27-of-34 for 345 yards and 4 TDs. Does that mean anything? How good are the Owls (1-1)? According to the latest CBS Sports ranking of all 131 FBS teams, Ohio (114th) still sits below FAU (101st) in the college football pecking order despite the head-to-head victory.

Ohio visits Beaver Stadium for the 7th time, coming off its only win in the series, a 24-14 verdict in 2012. A decade later, Penn State should be sufficiently recovered from that period’s NCAA sanctions and its 2020-21 malaise to beat the Bobcats for the first time since 1974 — and do so handily. For a B1G reference point, Ohio lost to Northwestern 35-6 a year ago. (And the Wildcats finished 3-9 in 2021.)

“We know crowd noise is going to be a factor,” Albin said. “It’s hard to simulate that. We’ve got a plan; we’ve played in loud stadiums before. …[But] it’s been a couple years since we’ve been in that environment.”

The Bobcats haven’t beaten a Power 5 program since winning 37-21 at Kansas in 2016 and haven’t taken down a B1G foe since ruining Bill O’Brien’s debut in State College.

If it is a mismatch …

Ideally, Penn State can treat the home crowd to a stress-free follow-up to its tense, 35-31 Big Ten opener at Purdue. Given the point spread, the coaching staff should have enough cushion to work on a couple years’ worth of sticking points.

Run the damn ball: It’s time to end the 17-game stretch without a 100-yard rusher. Sean Clifford should hand off on every play of the first half if that’s what it takes. This offensive line needs to be challenged. And 1 back needs to get priority over the other 2. And yes, it should be 5-star freshman Nicholas Singleton. Ohio gave up 464 yards last week, but only 100 on the ground. Last year, though, the Bobcats were 106th nationally against the run.

Flesh out the o-line: Only 7 linemen played vs. Purdue, and 5 of them actually performed reasonably well, despite the Lions netting only 98 rushing yards. But more depth is needed. It’s time for 3rd-year guys JB Nelson (if healthy), Jimmy Christ, Ibrahim Traore and Golden Israel-Achumba to get off the sideline, if they’re ever going to. If not, then 4-star Drew Shelton or some other freshman should get a taste.

“I thought the majority of our offensive line played well [against Purdue], Franklin said Tuesday at his media session. “We took a step, but there’s still work that needs to be done.”

Let’s see more of Drew Allar: The 5-star heir-apparent to Clifford got a series last week and looked totally calm and cool, completing his first 2 passes for first downs and hitting TE Tyler Warren in the hands for what should have been another. Franklin said post-Purdue that he hoped to get him in again this week. That should be Clifford’s final handoff on Saturday.

Show us the pass rush: New DC Manny Diaz dialed up blitzes to get PSU’s 2 sacks of Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell. It’d be nice to see the line get involved this week, particularly DEs Adisa Isaac and Chop Robinson. Rourke doesn’t have the o-line and probably not the quick release of O’Connell, so the front 4 should have a chance to post a big number.

Spread the playing time: Franklin said in the preseason that he liked his team’s depth and was determined to develop it. He was true to his word vs. Purdue, debuting 7 freshmen and going at least 2 deep at most positions. We’d like to see 4-star freshman WR Kaden Saunders this week, and more of freshman LB Abdul Carter, who got ejected early for targeting.

Prediction

Someone for Penn State will rush for 100 yards. Diaz’s defense will dominate from all 3 levels. Allar will play enough to go about 8-for-12 for 120 yards and a TD. We’ll get a few more names to root for along the offensive line, and elsewhere. Barney Amor won’t have to punt much.

Last week, I had the Lions winning by 4. So you can take this one to the betting window. PSU will cover.

Penn State 42, Ohio 10

Luke Glusco

Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.