Penn State football: New-look Lions capable of narrative-altering new result vs. B1G nemesis Ohio State

Plenty of people will want to make Penn State’s game Saturday at Ohio State a referendum on James Franklin.

And okay, fair enough, the 10th-year Nittany Lions head coach is 1-8 against the Buckeyes, including 1-point setbacks in 2017 and 2018 with Trace McSorley and Saquon Barkley heading the offense. Both those losses came despite double-digit leads in the fourth quarter. Choke jobs, plain and simple.

Again last year, Penn State led its long-time B1G nemesis in the fourth quarter — though only by 5 points rather 10+ — before collapsing on both sides of the ball and getting outscored 28-10 over the game’s final 9 minutes.

But Franklin isn’t going anywhere, regardless of what happens when his No. 7 team meets Ryan Day’s No. 3 Buckeyes for a Big Noon matchup of teams that are 6-0 overall and 3-0 in Big Ten East. Even the most strident fans shouldn’t want him to leave, because what he’s doing is working. He gets the off-the-field game, and that is the most important one for a head coach.

The depth and quality of the coaching staff and the roster are as good as they have been this century. The current stretch of recruiting is unparalleled — No. 6 class in 2022, No. 14 in 2023, currently No. 12 for 2024. At least 16 players rated 4 stars or better in each of those 3 groups. The high school studs are coming — Barkley, Micah Parsons, Nick Singleton, Drew Allar, 5-star OL J’ven Williams this year, 5-star tight end Luke Reynolds next year — because Penn State is back on the map in a big way. Facilities, NIL opportunities, White Outs, media relations, transfer portal.

CEO skills and selling aren’t negative qualities in a head coach, they’re requirements. And the traffic nightmares in State College on home game weekends attest that it’s working. For the first time since Joe Paterno’s death and the NCAA sanctions period, the success appears sustainable. With Franklin’s guidance, Penn State has figured out how to compete with the in-conference and out-of-conference juggernauts in the sport. And the adjustments are happening on the field, too. (We’ll get to that shortly.)

Penn State, a 4.5-point underdog, has a great shot at an upset Saturday. But win or lose, there will be a game against The (alleged) Cheaters Up North on Nov. 11 that will hold equally high stakes. Only after that game will we know where these Lions stand. And 2024 will hold huge promise either way.

If you want to have a referendum on James Franklin, at least be fair and judge it off this and next year’s results.

Can Penn State win Saturday?

Sure, 1-8 looks rough, and the 1 was a fluke in 2016 thanks to a blocked field goal return for a touchdown. Penn State hasn’t been favored against the Buckeyes since 2009. Saturday will mark the 14th straight meeting with PSU as the underdog. Losing to Ohio State predates Franklin. PSU is 5-18 in the series since the calendar flipped to 2000.

The Buckeyes perennially bring in top 5 recruiting classes, and Penn State has only topped them once in the past 13 years: In 2019, PSU’s class ranked 12th nationally in 247Sports’ composite rankings; OSU’s was 14th the year Day took the reins from Urban Meyer.

Nonetheless, Penn State has closed the gap. It has had the 2nd best recruiting class in the B1G in 4 of the past 6 years. Also, the program has worked the portal well during its post-Covid upswing. Last year’s addition of 5-star DE Chop Robinson from Maryland proves that point.

On paper, Ohio State remains the more talented team. But the eye test puts that in question.

Penn State absolutely can win this game. I actually think it will.

What needs to happen: offense

Allar, a sophomore, and counterpart Kyle McCord, a junior, face their toughest tests as first-year starters. Allar looks to be at least McCord’s equal, and with more untapped potential and upside.

The knock on the 6-5, 240-pound Allar is that he hasn’t hit a deep ball since early in Week 1. But dink-and-dunk has worked fine as Allar has gone 16 college appearances without throwing an interception or losing a fumble. Sustaining drives and keeping McCord and all-everything WR Marvin Harrison Jr. off the field wouldn’t be the worst thing. Penn State’s running game, more plodding than quick-strike this season, will help in that regard. The Lions lead the B1G in rushing yards per game (203.3) but rank just 4th in yards per carry (4.55). That all adds up to 34:36 of possession per game, 2nd in the country.

This is a very different attack than when Franklin brought in Joe Moorhead to run the offense in all-shotgun all the time mode in 2016-17. OC Mike Yurcich in his 3rd season and OL coach Phil Trautwein in his 4th are putting their stamp on an approach that has allowed the team to convert 11 of 12 fourth downs this year. There are almost certainly going to be another couple tries on Saturday, and those plays likely will swing the game. This transition, from a Moorhead-led attack that rarely won TOP in games, let alone a season, to one that goes under center, loads the backfield and uses the tush-push proves that Franklin can evolve with trends and rule changes.

The big plays will come, in both the pass and run game. Maybe as soon as Saturday. But Penn State can also get by without them. This 2023 squad has its own identity.

What needs to happen: defense

Speaking of transitioning from 1 coordinator to another, PSU’s defense has flipped in the opposite direction from the offense, from conservatism to aggression. Manny Diaz inherited a solid, bent-don’t-break unit from Brent Pry last year, added some more dogs and unleashed the pack.

Even granting that Penn State has played against a bunch of extremely limited offenses so far, the numbers are crazy good. Michigan hasn’t played anyone either, and other than being slightly better in scoring defense, can’t compare. Diaz’s group leads the nation in total defense (per game and per play), passing defense and sacks per game.

With 15 players with at least 1 sack — led by edge rushers Adisa Isaac with 5 and Robinson with 3 — Penn State will come at McCord from all angles and all levels of the field. If the pass-rush can get the better of the OSU line, Kalen King and the rest of PSU’s deep secondary will have more than a fighting chance against Harrison and his cohorts.

What needs to happen: overall

• At No. 2 in the nation at +10 in turnover margin, Penn State needs to continue winning that battle. If the game becomes a test of patience, Allar will have to make McCord blink first. Valuing the ball is always a virtue, and especially for Penn State as constituted right now.
• Yurcich and Trautwein must make sure JT Tuimoloau gets blocked — every play. The guy who single-handedly forced 4 turnovers and ruined Sean Clifford’s day last year can’t roam free. If it takes a double-team, so be it. OSU has other star DLs that’ll command plenty of attention, and PSU’s line must prove that its sacks-allowed total (4, tied for 3rd nationally) isn’t a fluke. The pass-protection/pass-rush battles will decide the game.
• Spring the backs — or backup QB Beau Pribula. Penn State remains way overdue for a big running play. Co-starting RBs Singleton and Kaytron Allen haven’t busted a single run of 20+ yards this season. Even without great blocking , they’re capable of the home run play. Now would be a great time to get off the schneid. Pribula has shown speed and elusiveness to the tune of 225 yards on 6.6 per carry in limited action. Don’t be surprised if Yurcich gets him involved in some sort of surprise package or play.

Final analysis: the prediction

There’s a freedom to playing as an underdog, and especially as 1 as dangerous as Penn State will be Saturday. Going for it on fourth down in reasonable field position makes sense. Yurcich should have some new twists ready for situations that might present themselves.

On defense, Diaz should empty his bag of tricks and stunts. LB Abdul Carter has had a very quiet first 6 games after a freakishly good freshman season in 2022. It’s time for him to make some noise, and Diaz should be able to facilitate such. Somehow containing Harrison is a key, of course, after he went off for 185 yards on 10 catches last year.

For all his big plays, Harrison didn’t get into the end zone vs. Penn State last year. He’s never been in the end zone vs. the Lions. If they can keep it that way, and this year keep Tuimoloau out of the end zone as well, they’ll win.

Ohio State has several key players questionable with injuries, including their top 2 RBs. Only 9th best in the B1G in rushing yards per game, the Buckeyes might struggle on the ground even if TreVeyon Henderson and Miyan Williams play. If Diaz’s defense can make OSU 1-dimensional, then hurry up McCord, Penn State might look as dominant as it has all season — against a much higher level of competition.

This game will show us where Penn State stands. We already know they’re way up on all but 2 teams in the Big Ten. That became evident in the historic drubbing last month of Iowa, then and now No. 24 in the AP poll.

This game will tell us how far along Allar is, and if any of these gaudy, nation-leading team stats have any validity.

It’s more an initial assessment of the next year and a half than a final exam, but if I’m right, Penn State will be closer to CFP worthy than they’ve been since the Franklin era began in 2014.

Penn State 27, Ohio State 17

Luke Glusco

Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.