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Penn State football: Will Drew Allar be the Big Ten’s best quarterback next year?
By Luke Glusco
Published:
Heisman contender CJ Stroud seems like a lock to enter the NFL Draft, which will leave a 2023 quarterback void not only at Ohio State but throughout the Big Ten.
Behind Stroud, the league trots out a collection of fair-weather game-managers and interception machines to lead offenses each Saturday.
Kyle McCord, who has waited patiently behind Stroud, is the heir apparent in Columbus.
But the league’s heir apparent might be matriculating in State College, Pa., and Drew Allar’s ascension might be measured in games rather than months or years.
There’s a best-case scenario in which Penn State’s much-hyped 5-star backup takes the Big Ten by storm next September, and it’s not farfetched. Two reasons: 1) Allar has the game. 2) The rest of the B1G field will be kind of lame.
The B1G QB herd is thinning
Assuming Stroud follows the lead of recent predecessors Justin Fields and Dwayne Haskins — who both exited early from Ohio State to begin pro careers — at least 5 of the B1G’s current top 10 programs will be fielding new starting QBs next fall.
Illinois’ Tommy DeVito, Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell and Minnesota’s Tanner Morgan — like Penn State’s 24-year-old Sean Clifford — are maxing out and using up their eligibility this season.
With DeVito and O’Connell gone, no one in the B1G West will put a QB on the field more promising than Allar. Graham Mertz can return at Wisconsin, but he remains an enigma after his latest dud (3 turnovers) Saturday in a loss at Iowa. Speaking of Iowa, Spencer Petras can return in 2023 to continue turning the clock back to the 1970s with his QB play. (That is not a compliment.)
From bad teams to bad offenses to bad prospects, the B1G West won’t have a top 5 Big Ten quarterback to start 2023. Maybe Jeff Brohm can turn another nobody into a star in his pass-happy offense at Purdue, but the next man up after O’Connell will face a learning curve.
In the East, Rutgers and Indiana are too limited overall to allow QBs to blossom.
Penn State fans, you just saw Maryland 3-year starter Taulia Tagovailoa implode in a 30-0 loss to the Lions on Saturday. Tua’s kid brother has a year of eligibility to play with, but he seems to have stagnated with the Terps. He might be wise to seek out a transfer destination with upside. Either way, he seems to have hit a ceiling in Mike Locksley’s system.
The B1G East crucible
That leaves the top B1G East contenders of the past 2 seasons.
At Michigan State, Payton Thorne has run hot-and-cold this season, but if Mel Tucker can put together another solid recruiting/transfer class, the 2-year starter could lift himself and his team into the B1G mix in 2023.
Then, there are the 5-stars.
If Stroud leaves, McCord — a 5-star recruit in 2021 — would likely take over. Given the receiver talent Ohio State brings in year after year, the 6-3, 222-pound McCord could pick up right where Stroud left off. He’s 16-for-20 for 190 yards and 1 TD in mop-up duty this year.
At Michigan, JJ McCarthy won his 9th straight start Saturday, but he’s struggling to hit deep balls and hasn’t had a true breakout game yet. He does a lot of handing off and has been good at avoiding turnovers with only 2 INTs thrown this season. Whether he can throw for 300 yards in a game or make good decisions in tight games, we really don’t know yet.
What Allar brings
At 6-5 and roughly 240 pounds, Allar brings a presence to the huddle. He’s already displayed arm talent that the workmanlike Clifford must envy at least a little bit. Against Maryland, with the temperature dipping and the rain intensifying, he threw only 6 passes, completing 3 for 18 yards. But every little bit of game action helps.
That was Allar’s 7th appearance, and he’s totaled 30 completions on 49 attempts (61.2%) for 302 yards, with 4 TDs and no picks. He also had a 12-yard run for a first down against the Terps.
Beyond the numbers, Allar has looked comfortable in the pocket and displayed zip and tight spin on his throws.
He also will inherit an offense with a lot of plusses. The line has excelled the past 2 weeks even while down 3 starters, and all of the guys up front can return if they choose. Current standout freshman backs Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen will be a year stronger and more experienced. Some if not all the members of a great tight end group will be back. If Parker Washington stays, which seems likely, the lead receiver spot is set.
Allar won’t need to be a superhero out of the gate. Penn State opens 2023 at home vs. West Virginia (4-6 this year and unranked since 2019) and then Delaware.
By the time Penn State begins a 3-game stretch vs. the B1G West — at Illinois, vs. Iowa, at Northwestern — we’ll know if Allar is worth the wait James Franklin has put fans through this season.
It didn’t take Stroud long to establish himself as QB1 in the Big Ten last year. Like Allar, he spent a year in his program before taking the offensive helm. Unlike Allar, he didn’t throw any passes in games or burn his redshirt in Year 1. So Allar will be way further along come Sept. 2.
In the final year of the B1G East as currently constituted, Penn State will face Ohio State on Oct. 21 in Columbus and Michigan on Nov. 11 at home. The Allar-McCord-McCarthy issue will be settled on the field. Penn State fans have every reason to feel good about it.
Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.