Penn State stock report after bye in Week 6: Weirdly dominant Lions running out of prep time

One can find plenty of stats, streaks and notes that indicate Penn State stands totally deserving of its No. 6 ranking in the AP poll.

And yet …

And yet there are various criticisms from fans real and fake — even those who have earned their social media troll status with snarky aplomb — that ring true. No analysts, pundits or diehards will truly know these Nittany Lions before their Oct. 21 trip to Columbus, Ohio.

James Franklin’s 10th edition buzzed through 4 unranked opponents and exposed then No. 24 Iowa in a 31-0 whiting out of Team Ferentz in Week 4. In the process, the Lions (5-0, 3-0) have bolstered their collective identity while downplaying the individuals.

The positives …

It’s 1 thing for a team to lead the country in 1 obscure category that may or may not be sustainable. It’s another to be able to list nearly a dozen. Here are the areas where Penn State stood No. 1 nationally going into its weekend of rest:

• Total defense (210.6 ypg allowed)
• Passing defense (136.4)
• Turnover margin (+11)
• Fewest turnovers (1, tied with Oregon)
• Fewest offensive turnovers (0)
• Consecutive games with 30+ points (12)
• Consecutive wins by 14+ points (10)
• Consecutive quarters with points scored (32)
• Time of possession (36:06 per game)
• Average home attendance (110,051). Take that, Michigan!

And here are other areas where the Lions ranked top-5 entering the weekend:

• Scoring defense (9.6 ppg allowed, 3rd)
• Sacks (20, 3rd)
• Fourth down conversions/percentage (10/11, 90.9% — both 5th)

The weirdly worrisome …

The flip side to the steady dominance outlined above is Penn State’s utter lack of truly explosive plays and individual stars.

The Lions rank 129th in both plays of 20+ yards (12) and of 40+ yards (1). That’s tied for 2nd to last and last, respectively. They’re tied for 122nd with 5 plays of 30+ yards (2 runs, 3 passes).

Since his spectacular starting debut in front of 110,000+ under the lights against visiting West Virginia in Week 1, Drew Allar has been nothing more than the prototypical Big Ten game-manager. He hasn’t reached 210 passing yards since that 325-yard opener, and hasn’t had any strikes of 40+ yards since hitting KeAndre Lambert-Smith for 72 to open the Lions’ scoring this season.

Fellow 5-star 2022 recruit Nick Singleton doesn’t have a single 100-yard game or carry of 20+ yards, something unimaginable for anyone who watched his first 5 games as a true freshman. Singleton finished last season with 1,061 yards on 6.8 per carry, 4 100-yard games and 12 carries of 20+ yards — including 7 that went for 40 or more. This year, he’s on pace for 736 yards for a 13-game season and averaging 3.8 per carry.

At the WR position, no one has stepped up to complement Lambert-Smith. Touted transfer Dante Cephas has been agonizingly slow in acclimating, with just 7 catches for 103 yards. The backs and tight ends have been picking up the slack, but no wideout beyond Lambert-Smith (25-372) has more than Harrison Wallace III’s 10 catches (none since Week 2, as he’s been battling an injury) or Cephas’s 103 yards.

On defense, Abdul Carter, another of last year’s breakout freshmen, has but 12 tackles and 1 sack. A year ago, he finished the season ranked 2nd on the team with 56 tackles and 1st with 6.5 sacks. Penn State is the only B1G team without a single defender with 20 tackles. LB Curtis Jacobs leads with 18, and only 8 of those since Week 1.

The offensive line, led by projected first-round NFL pick Olu Fashanu at left tackle, has protected well and thrived in short-yardage situations. But the run blocking remains rough.

Good/bad of the weirdly worrisome …

Good: Penn State should be the most rested team in the country going into its Oct. 21 showdown at Ohio State. After this weekend’s bye, the Lions have a glorified scrimmage on tap against the weakest opponent on their 2023 docket: 1-6 UMass, ranked in the bottom 10 among the 133 FBS schools by various outlets.

Bad: It’s arguable that Singleton, Carter, Fashanu are others are nowhere near mid-season form, and that the disjointed playing time doesn’t allow them to get into a rhythm. Will the difference-makers be able to turn it on when the time comes? Can Penn State continue to win in no-frills fashion, without breakout individual efforts, against the B1G elite — i.e. Ohio State and Michigan?

Injury worries …

Leading rusher Kaytron Allen and starting left guard JB Nelson left last weekend’s victory at Northwestern with apparent injuries, and Wallace has missed 1 game and been without a reception since Week 2. Their statuses won’t be clear until Saturday, and surely no one will play at less than 100 percent against the Minutemen.

Player of the Year so far: Drew Allar

Poise and ball protection go a long way, and the 6-5, 240-pound sophomore is already a clear top-5 quarterback in the B1G.

Unsung hero: Alex Felkins

Felkins has solidified the kicking game after Sander Sahaydak missed 2 FG attempts in the opener vs. West Virginia. Felkins is 7-for-9 with a long of 47, and 1 of the misses came from 50+ yards. Fans will just have to hope the senior transfer from Columbia can be money in the clutch. Penn State hasn’t needed a crucial kick since 2021, when Jordan Stout missed a 27-yard FG attempt and a PAT in a 30-27 loss to Michigan State.

Biggest surprise: Trey Potts

It seemed like a heartwarming but inconsequential story when Potts announced he’d come home to Pennsylvania after 4 seasons at Minnesota. But the running back’s veteran experience has already produced TDs rushing, passing and receiving. And if Kaytron Allen’s injury lingers, the 5-9, 215-pound redshirt junior (or senior with a Covid year still available, depending on how you think about these things) could end up playing a huge role in huge games. He’s among the latest under-the-radar portal additions that have bolstered Penn State’s depth in recent years.

Biggest concern: Youth at QB

Allar already has handled a couple night games in front of 110,000+, and the career no-turnover streak remains intact. But in 2 road games this season, he’s thrown only 1 TD pass and his completion percentage is just 51.5% (compared to 73.9% at home). We still don’t know if he’s ready to make big plays in big moments. Backup Beau Pribula has shown impressive running skills but has only gotten to throw the ball 13 times, completing 6. If some major bad injury luck occurs, true freshman Jaxon Smolik would be next up. He has 1 appearance with no rush or pass attempts.

Developing trend: Manny Diaz’s aggression

Manny Diaz’s second year as defensive coordinator is evolving much like the first. The Lions’ pressure on opposing QBs rachets up as games and seasons progress.

Last year’s major breakout came in Week 3 at Auburn, when the Lions racked up 7 sacks and 11 TFL. Propelled by that effort, Penn State finished the season on top of the B1G in sacks (42), sack yardage (281), TFL (104) and TFL yardage (434).

After 7 sacks and 12 TFL vs. Northwestern, the Lions led the B1G post-Week 5 with 20 sacks, 124 sack yards, 37 TFL and 157 TFL yards.

First impression about Week 7

vs. UMass, 3:30 p.m. Saturday (BTN): Will 110,000+ show up just to revel in the top-10, undefeated glory as the Lions romp to 6-0 and further bolster their dominance on various statistical charts?

Other than that, the main question is what the coaching staff will work on with the various units in the final tune-up before Ohio State.

The Minutemen fell 41-24 to Toledo on Saturday, their 6th straight loss.

Luke Glusco

Luke Glusco is a Penn State graduate and veteran journalist. He covers Penn State and occasionally writes about other Big Ten programs and topics. He also serves as the primary copy editor for Saturday Tradition.