Peterson: My Top 25 entering Week 4 of the 2024 season

The third week of the college football season did not feature any official upsets of ranked teams. But we learned a fair bit about teams in or around the top 25.

Here’s how I ranked my top 25 teams in the country for the ballot I submitted for Saturday Down South’s official top 25.

1. Texas

Last week: 2

Texas is No. 1 in FPI. Texas is No. 1 in Sagarin. Texas is No. 1 in ESPN’s game control metric. It has the third-best strength of record in the country and the ninth-best average win probability. In 2 home games, the Longhorns are up 108-7. And they have a road win over a ranked Big Ten program. This one was easy.

2. Georgia

Last week: 1

I considered moving Georgia down more than just 1 spot after a dud of a performance in the win over Kentucky. The Wildcats had, a week earlier, looked gross. Still, the Bulldogs have a win on a neutral field over Clemson, and that’s better than anything the teams in the 3-6 range have so far.

3. Ohio State

Last week: 3

Ohio State doesn’t move after a bye week. But I considered it. The Buckeyes play another cupcake in Week 4 before their Big Ten opener on the road. I’m curious how they’ll look in that game after not really testing themselves in the nonconference.

Related: Bet on the Buckeyes all season long with one of our favorite OH betting apps.

4. Alabama

Last week: 4

The Crimson Tide rolled Wisconsin in their first road game under Kalen DeBoer, but it wasn’t exactly a domination. You can’t really claim domination when giving up a 17-play touchdown drive to a backup quarterback. There’s room for improvement; the offense is a little all-or-nothing right now.

5. Tennessee

Last week: 7

The Vols are No. 5 in game control and No. 2 in average win probability. Per game on paper, Tennessee is sixth nationally in net yards per play. Through 3 games, Tennessee has demoralized its competition. My early-season take: this Tennessee team has the highest ceiling of anyone.

6. Ole Miss

Last week: 5

The net YPP metric I just referenced? Ole Miss leads the country in that category, outgaining opponents by an average of 5.2 yards per play. According to SP+, though, the strength of schedule so far ranks 122nd. Lane Kiffin’s squad hasn’t played anybody yet, but it will.

7. Missouri

Last week: 6

Missouri beat a decent Boston College team led by a really good quarterback. The Tigers rank second in the country in net success rate, per game on paper. This is a complete team.

8. Miami

Last week: 8

The Hurricanes check every box for me. They have top-10 marks in game control and average win probability, a top-10 net success rate, and they’ve followed up a rivalry road win by blasting bad opponents. Miami has looked different. The Florida win will lose its luster as the season goes on, but that won’t much matter if Miami keeps blasting people, which it seems perfectly capable of doing.

9. Penn State

Last week: 9

West Virginia might not be very good. Just something to keep in mind. Penn State could use a solid romp in its return to the field in Week 4, and Kent State currently ranks dead last in both FPI and SP+. So it should get a game where it blows out an inferior opponent.

10. USC

Last week: 10

Another team that had an early bye week. USC has seemingly answered the biggest question of the offseason through 2 weeks. A Week 4 trip to Michigan will be informative.

Related: Looking to bet on college football this season? Sign up with one of our top recommended sports betting apps to get in on the action with a generous starting bonus. 

11. Oregon

Last week: 11

The Ducks beat the snot out of Oregon State behind a reconfigured offensive line. They looked great. Now, do it again. (Not this week; Oregon has a bye and then a road trip to UCLA.)

12. Oklahoma State

Last week: 13

The Pokes are 3-0 after blowing the doors off Tulsa on the road*. They did so while getting 41 rushing yards on 17 carries from their star running back. Quarterback Alan Bowman has thrown 112 passes in 3 games. Ollie Gordon II is averaging only 72 rushing yards a game. The offense ranks 127th in rushing success rate. That has to change. But Oklahoma State is still 3-0 with a good win in Week 1 and a win over an SEC team in Week 2. The Pokes were always going to be chaotic and fun.

13. Utah

Last week: 12

Utah shook off a slow start with a true freshman quarterback to beat Utah State 38-21 and start 3-0 for a second consecutive season. Utah hadn’t previously done that since the 2016 and 2017 campaigns. All eyes will be on injured quarterback Cameron Rising, who needs to be on the field for the Utes against Oklahoma State on Saturday.

14. Louisville

Last week: 14

No one — not Tennessee, not Ole Miss, not anyone — has dominated the way Louisville has. In 2 games, the Cardinals have a net success rate of plus-26.2% — the best in the country. The Cards are first in average win probability and eighth in game control. Now, they have faced Austin Peay and Jacksonville State, so I’m tempering my excitement over the start. We’ll find out if this team is legit in the coming weeks. So far, the offense has been wonderfully balanced.

15. Kansas State

Last week: 15

The Wildcats had a negative net success rate against Arizona and won 31-7. I’m still not sure what to make of Kansas State. But I got a good look at Arizona and wasn’t impressed.

16. Oklahoma

Last week: 16

Oklahoma struggled to put away yet another opponent. The defense is awesome. However, the offense is still very much a work in progress with a rebuilt offensive line and sophomore quarterback Jackson Arnold. Oklahoma has rolled out a ton of different configurations on the offensive line and that has undoubtedly affected everything. OU ranks 116th in yards per play. That won’t get it done against what’s coming in league play.

17. Clemson

Last week: 18

After finding a serious groove against App State in Week 2, Clemson hit a bye week. I’m curious what the offense looks like on the other side of the off week.

18. Notre Dame

Last week: unranked

Good lord, man. Was Purdue even interested in lining up? Notre Dame played angry, but Purdue was awful. The Irish ran for 379 yards (adjusted for sacks) and returned an interception for a score. Of the rushing output, 260 yards came on 16 total attempts off the left or right ends. Purdue had zero interest in setting the edge.

19. Memphis

Last week: 21

Memphis handed Florida State a third straight loss, and did so in Tallahassee. No matter the problems in the FSU program, that was a major victory for the Memphis program. Memphis is seventh in game control, 13th in strength of record, and 13th in average win probability. I’m buying Ryan Silverfield’s squad.

20. LSU

Last week: 19

LSU’s problems were on display again, though a strong option at tailback emerged. Still, I tend to side with the crowd that thinks South Carolina had the game taken away. Two pick-sixes were taken off the board because of penalties. I didn’t like the second one at all.

21. Nebraska

Last week: 23

Is… Is Nebraska… back?? No. It’s not time to go there yet. The Huskers need to beat a good team first. And, no, Colorado doesn’t qualify. But if Dylan Raiola (79.7% adjusted completion rate, 1 turnover-worthy play, per PFF) is going to play like this, Nebraska is going to be a threat to everyone.

22. Iowa State

Last week: 22

The Cyclones had a bye week after knocking off Iowa.

23. Illinois

Last week: 24

Illinois followed up an upset win over Kansas by racing away from Central Michigan. There are flaws, but the pass defense isn’t one of them.

24. Indiana

Last week: unranked

Curt Cignetti is a certified dude. Just google him. More importantly, the Hoosiers are tough. They went on the road and destroyed UCLA, 42-13. Indiana is third in net success rate through 3 weeks and Ohio transfer quarterback Kurtis Rourke is off to a fine start.

25. Northern Illinois

Last week: 25

Another bye week. Not much to add here.

Dropped out

Arizona (17), Washington (20)

Right on the cut line

Syracuse, Washington State