Peterson: My Top 25 entering Week 7 of the 2024 season

What a week. The top-ranked team went down, followed by 4 of the next 10 teams ranked inside the AP poll. As we enter Week 7, it doesn’t currently look like we have a single truly elite team in college football this season. I have 4 unbeaten teams atop the ballot I submitted for Saturday Down South’s official top 25. All 4 of them have question marks left to answer. Beyond that group, everyone has done something or some things that is/are alarming.

In several spots, ranking teams this week was a nigh on sadistic exercise. Here’s what I settled on.

1. Ohio State (5-0)

Last week: 4

The Buckeyes still haven’t played a complete game, but they have yet to give up more than 14 points and have opened Big Ten play with a net scoring margin of plus-59. I can’t really provide a suitable justification for why Ohio State jumped Texas other than I went with my gut. I haven’t liked Michigan, and that feeling was validated in Week 6.

2. Texas (5-0)

Last week: 2

The Longhorns were on a bye week to prepare for Red River. The annual trip to the Cotton Bowl usually produces ridiculous results, but with Oklahoma still working in a new quarterback and Texas being viewed as the cream of the crop in college football this season, Texas should cover. Put another way: we’ll find out this week if there’s an elite team in college football.

3. Oregon (5-0)

Last week: 8

Oregon handled Michigan State with little resistance to set up a showdown with Ohio State. I’m not necessarily concerned that Oregon has cracked 40 points only once so far this season — I believe the offense still has that in them. I think Oregon has taken a yeoman-like approach to get to this point. No real reason to give Ohio State answers to the test in a 28-3 (UCLA) or 31-0 (MSU) game.

4. Penn State (5-0)

Last week: 7

Penn State gets the nod over Georgia for me for 2 reasons. First, I think the Nittany Lions would have the same record through 5 that Georgia has, and I think they would have gotten there in generally the same way. Second, I would take Penn State on a neutral field over Georgia right now. The Nittany Lions are third nationally in net success rate and fifth nationally in adjusted net EPA per play. Georgia does not rank in the top 30 in either category.

5. Georgia (4-1)

Last week: 6

I’m just having a hard time getting there with these Dawgs. They did not dominate Auburn the way we would have seen other Kirby Smart-era Georgia teams do off a loss. (Auburn equaled Georgia in yards per play.)

6. Clemson (4-1)

Last week: 10

Since that opening loss to Georgia, Clemson has overachieved against SP+ projections by 16.1 points per game. The Tigers weren’t as clinical against Florida State, when they outgained FSU 500-250 (6.8 per play to 3.9) but also attempted 7 field goals. A regression to the mean might be coming for Dabo Swinney’s crew. Right now, though, they’re still rolling.

7. Miami (6-0)

Last week: 5

Miami got away with it again, lollygagging through 3 quarters just to turn it up in the fourth quarter. The Canes rallied from 25 points down to win a road game after traveling coast-to-coast. That’s an impressive accomplishment. You’d just like to see the Canes’ attention to detail sustained for all 4 quarters.

8. Tennessee (4-1)

Last week: 3

I thought the Vols just chose not to run it up on Oklahoma. Then they went out and chose not to score at all against Arkansas. Something else might be going on. The Vols played a Charmin-soft schedule through the first 3 weeks of the season, with an awful NC State team as the feature game and then one of the worst FBS teams in the country this season in Kent State. That may have wrecked the curve a little. The sky is not falling. There’s still an elite defense in there. But the offense is sputtering. Play-calling, line play, and quarterback play all need to be better. It seems like Josh Heupel is reluctant to put too much on Nico Iamaleava’s plate, and that just can’t be the case over a full season if this team wants to contend for a title.

9. Ole Miss (5-1)

Last week: 12

Turns out all the hand-wringing over the Kentucky loss was just that. A week later and Ole Miss is still very much in the thick of the SEC title race. The Rebels put forth a dominant defensive effort against South Carolina, recording 10 tackles for loss and 6 sacks.

10. Alabama (4-1)

Last week: 1

Alabama has the best win of any team in the country. Alabama also has the worst loss of any team inside the top 10. I don’t have Vanderbilt ranked (spoiler, I guess) and I didn’t consider it. And yet the Commodores whipped Alabama’s defense up and down the field. Bad look. Bad, bad look.

Related: Looking to bet on college football this season? Sign up with one of our top recommended OH betting apps to get in on the action with a generous starting bonus.

11. Iowa State (5-0)

Last week: 17

After a couple of so-so years, Matt Campbell love is back in full bloom. And it’s deserved. The Cyclones are 5-0 for the first time since 1980 and they’re 12th nationally in Game on Paper‘s adjusted net EPA per play metric.

12. Indiana (6-0)

Last week: 18

Indiana is No. 5 in Game on Paper’s net success rate metric. Indiana has the No. 3 scoring offense in the country, at 47.5 points per game. Indiana is being led by a quarterback (Kurtis Rourke) who ranks second nationally in Total QBR. This team is legit. Maybe the talent gap keeps the Hoosiers from beating Ohio State later this season, but that assumption shouldn’t diminish how good this team is right now. I’m on the Hoosier Hype Train until the wheels fall off.

13. Notre Dame (4-1)

Last week: 13

Notre Dame was on a bye, so I kept the Irish right where they were a week ago.

14. Utah (4-1)

Last week: 14

Same for the Utes.

15. LSU (4-1)

Last week: 16

LSU was also on a bye, but my No. 15 lost.

16. Texas A&M (5-1)

Last week: 25

I was slow to take on the Aggies after their performance in the opener against Notre Dame. They’ve just been really good in the weeks since that loss. They beat the snot out of Missouri, exposing some things in Eli Drinkwitz’s team and highlighting some truths about Mike Elko’s burgeoning program. That defensive front is an issue very few teams are equipped to deal with.

17. Boise State (4-1)

Last week: 24

At 50.6 points per game, Boise State has the No. 1 scoring offense in the country through the first 6 weeks. Tailback Ashton Jeanty has 1,031 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns in what is effectively four games. (He sat out second halves against Portland State and Utah State because they were blowouts.)

18. Oklahoma (4-1)

Last week: 20

Oklahoma had a wonderfully-timed bye week right before Red River. This team has been beat up beyond recognition in certain spots across the 2-deep and it made a quarterback change at the start of league play. I’m anxious to see how Brent Venables’ group looks in Dallas.

19. Kansas State (4-1)

Last week: 21

Another team on a bye. Kansas State has a sneaky trap game against Colorado this weekend. Maybe “trap” isn’t the right word. Maybe it’s just a tough game. The Buffs will be looking to prove their 4-1 start is legit. Does Kansas State play its first complete road game? This week would be a good time for it.

20. USC (3-2)

Last week: 11

I’m not sure what to do with USC, and you’re perfectly reasonable to yell at me for having the Trojans still in this ranking. I don’t like Michigan and USC has a loss to Michigan. USC also has a road loss to Minnesota. I like the win over LSU quite a bit. I thought the Trojans were a bit unlucky in the Michigan loss. They just didn’t do enough to win in the Minnesota game. Maybe they’re too high. I feel like there’s a good team here, I just don’t see a lot to justify that right now.

21. Arkansas (4-2)

Last week: unranked

Welcome back. I had the Razorbacks ranked prior to the Texas A&M loss. This team has sky-high potential but just struggles to get out of its own way at times. Arkansas lost a game it did enough to win at Oklahoma State, won a game it probably should have lost against Auburn, then lost to a good A&M team. Now it has a huge win over a good Tennessee team. Arkansas is still a little too volatile, but there’s probably 1 more upset still to be pulled off by this group.

22. BYU (5-0)

Last week: 23

I think BYU is a bit overrated in the new AP poll. The margin in the Kansas State game is flukey and the win over Baylor was stressful. The Cougars are 40th in adjusted net EPA per play and 53rd in net success rate, per Game on Paper, which tells me some regression might be coming.

23. Navy (5-0)

Last week: unranked

I’ve been on the Navy train for a few weeks, watching them absolutely smash spreads and bulldoze opponents. The Midshipmen are 5-0, they rank ninth nationally in adjusted net EPA per play, and they are led by a quarterback who leads the country in Total QBR. Legitimate Playoff contender here. They get the nod over Army (which is also 5-0) because the Memphis win is better than anything Army has so far.

24. Illinois (4-1)

Last week: unranked

Penn State dominated Illinois. That being said, the win over the Huskers is good enough to get the Illini back into the field following a week in which other teams looked gross.

25. Nebraska (5-1)

Last week: 22

The Huskers are hanging on by a thread here after another week in which the offense really struggled to get moving. Nebraska is 69th nationally in yards per play and 40th in opponent-adjusted EPA per play. They remain in my ranking because the defense is going to keep them in every single ball game. I think.

Dropped out

Missouri (9), Louisville (15), Michigan (19)

Right on the cut line

Army, Missouri, SMU, Washington