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Predicting each Sweet 16 game: Which B1G teams move on to the Elite Eight?

Connor O'Gara

By Connor O'Gara

Published:

The wait is over. Today, there will be basketball.

It’s been a long 4 days, but we made it through it together. The chalk-y, lack of Cinderella Sweet 16 is set. But hey, just because it’s chalk-y doesn’t mean it’ll lack entertainment.

So who wins each contest and moves on to a regional final?

Let’s discuss:

No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Virginia Tech

Winner — Duke

I do like the odds of Buzz Williams’ team coming out ready to roll and keeping it closer than people might expect. Let’s not forget the Hokies beat Duke albeit without Zion Williamson. This time with Williamson, the Blue Devils are too much to handle. R.J. Barrett steps up again late and Duke overcomes some poor shooting to advance to their second regional final in as many years.

No. 2 Michigan State vs. No. 3 LSU

Winner — Michigan State

Do I think this is a laugher? Absolutely not. LSU is all sorts of talented. Naz Reid is plenty capable of being a matchup nightmare and Tremont Waters will be able to get looks from anywhere, much like Cassius Winston. LSU already accomplished an incredible feat just to make it to the Sweet 16 without suspended head coach Will Wade (I had the Tigers losing to Yale).

LSU got here despite blowing some big second half leads in each of the first two games. This game follows a different flow, but this time, it’s the Spartans who come up with the big bucket late to move on.

No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 4 Florida State

Winner — Florida State

As we saw last year, this is a bad matchup for Gonzaga. A team that does its damage around the rim will go up against an FSU squad that has length on length on length.

We saw that against Murray State when the Seminoles squashed the Ja Morant buzz by the end of the first half. Mfiondu Kabengele and FSU once again prove to be a brutal matchup for Rui Hachimura and the Zags. The possibility of an All-ACC Final Four remains intact.

No. 2. Michigan vs. No. 3 Texas Tech

Winner — Michigan

Man, there might not have been a team who had a better opening weekend than the Red Raiders. They completely stymied a loaded Buffalo squad en route to a blowout victory in the second round. As I outlined the other day, Michigan won’t win this game by hoisting jumpers late in the shot clock. If that happens, Texas Tech rolls to another Elite Eight.

But I still like the idea of John Beilein getting plenty of time with his veteran-laden squad to figure out how to get quality looks in the half court. I think Jon Teske gets a ton of low-post touches and has the biggest game of his career to fuel a down-to-the-wire Michigan win.

No. 1 Virginia vs. No. 12 Oregon

Winner — Virginia

I bet Oregon wished it could’ve played on Monday night. That’s how hot the Ducks are. But I’d be stunned if they repeated their second round shooting performance against the nation’s best defense. Virginia got a huge monkey off its back by reaching the Sweet 16. Tony Bennett’s squad will remind us all that they were a worthy No. 1 overall seed by holding Oregon to something like 48 points. Virginia doesn’t light it up, either, but it still winds up being a double-digit victory for the Cavaliers.

No. 2. Tennessee vs. No. 3 Purdue

Winner — Tennessee

If you’re on the Tennessee bandwagon, you’re looking at a stat like this as a justification for why the Vols are due for a comfortable win against Purdue after an entertaining opening weekend.

There’s something to be said for learning how to play in and win close games in the NCAA Tournament. Purdue has yet to do that. What happens if Carsen Edwards doesn’t get going against a team as loaded as Tennessee? I question that. While I do think Matt Haarms is the X-factor in this one, I don’t think the Boilermakers have enough answers for a versatile Tennessee attack. Grant Williams does what he does — make huge buckets down the stretch — and the Vols prevail in a thrilling Sweet 16 showdown.

No. 1 UNC vs. No. 5 Auburn

Winner — UNC

No game has me more excited than this one. Why? Because I love fast-paced offenses and teams that shoot, then shoot and shoot some more. There will be stretches in this game where this teams go back and forth trading threes and it’ll feel like the first team to 100 will prevail. As hot as Auburn is, I have a feeling they’re going to play right into UNC’s hand with their style. UNC won’t be taken out of its rhythm offensively and Jared Harper will start forcing shots. The Heels pull away late, but not before both teams remind us that basketball can be a pretty fun thing.

No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 3 Houston

Winner — Houston

I saved my boldest prediction for last. With Kentucky leading scorer P.J. Washington’s status up in the air, I think Houston is one of the worst possible teams for Kentucky to face right now. The Cougars rank sixth in the country in scoring defense, and given how much the Cats struggled offensively against Wofford without Washington, I have my doubts for how well Kentucky will play against an even better team.

Houston was a buzzer-beater 3-pointer away from beating eventual runner-up Michigan last year, and Kelvin Sampson’s veteran squad is even better this year. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tyler Herro starts chucking and this turns into a low-scoring game in which Kentucky just can’t quite get over the hump. Sampson gets back to his first Elite Eight in 16 years.

Connor O'Gara

Connor O'Gara is the senior national columnist for Saturday Tradition. He's a member of the Football Writers Association of America. After spending his entire life living in B1G country, he moved to the South in 2015.