Projecting the 12-team Playoff field entering Week 8

Move over, Carnac. Stand aside, Nostradamus. The SDS College Football Playoff Projection Machine is cranking on all cylinders.

The moving target that is the 12-team College Football Playoff field is bound to have some revolving door action, given that there is a Game of the Century being teed up on nearly a weekly basis. The latest example was in Eugene, as Oregon held off Ohio State by the length of a Will Howard running stride. As Auburn fans still rhetorically ask Alabama fans still pouting over the Kick-6, “got a second?”

The Buckeyes did not have that 1/60th of a minute at their disposal, and that means they take a dip in the latest projection. The rest of the teams that are in? Away we go as we project the 12-team Playoff entering Week 8!

First-round byes

No. 1 = Texas Longhorns (Last week: 1)

Yeah, there are butt kickings, and there are Texas-sized butt kickings. The Texas toe met the Oklahoma rear end in epic fashion at last weekend’s Texas State Fair, making an emphatic Red River Rivalry statement to stay right where they were last week in these here projections. Steve Sarkisian seems to have quickly assembled a Death Star in Austin, though the force field will be tested by Georgia in just a couple of days. Man, these Games of the Century are relentless …

No. 2 = Oregon Ducks (Last week: 8)

You beat Ohio State, and you get the nod. That’s simply the way this works. Dan Lanning’s Oregon squad emphatically proved the point against the Buckeyes, and deserve the love that goes with it. This spot should pretty much be reserved for whomever survives the Big Ten, alas, as Penn State also proved a point on the road at USC. Still, the Ducks passed the eye test on an electric night in Autzen – as QB Dillon Gabriel threw for 341 yards and 2 touchdowns. They’ll probably have to do the same thing again in the Big Ten title game against Ohio State, though …

No. 3 = Miami Hurricanes (Last week: 3)

The Hurricanes didn’t play last week, which means they didn’t have to absolutely escape defeat by the skin of their teeth like they had to against Virginia Tech and Cal. Again, being the best team in the ACC in 2024 is better this year than last year simply because they’ve gotta receive at least a No. 4 seed (yes, that is an FSU reference …). Sharp observers are eyeing quarterback Cam Ward atop their Heisman vote more and more every week. Going to Louisville this week will be a test, but in reality, that is probably the only big regular-season test Miami has left.

No. 4 = Texas Tech Red Raiders (Last week: 4)

AP voters don’t like the Red Raiders nearly as much, I get it. Texas Tech didn’t play last weekend, which means all the stuff we said about them last week still applies. We feel semi-tempted to pull the trigger on Iowa State (which handled West Virginia in Morgantown) or BYU (which thumped Arizona in Provo), but the Red Raiders’ video game-like representation of everything the Big 12 represents still earns the duke. Heading to Ames for a Nov. 2 date with the Cyclones probably will mean everything in the final analysis – though the Cougars play precisely zero Top 25 teams in the remainder of their cotton candy schedule.

Seeds 5-12

No. 5 (at-large) = Ohio State Buckeyes (Last week: 2)

Man, having to play the first weekend of the Playoff seems harsh punishment for losing by 1/60th of a minute. But the difference between a conference championship and the wanting has been decided like that before. (And, they get another home game.) Penn State will certainly have a say in all of this on Nov. 2 in the horseshoe in a de facto game to decide who hosts a first-round playoff tilt. Pay no attention to those delusional Indiana fans out there whooping and hollering – they keep confusing these arbitrary proceedings with March Madness.

No. 6 (at-large) = Alabama Crimson Tide (Last week: 5)

Figuring out where Alabama will ultimately end up in this entire thing with 100% certainty could make a prognosticator a lot of money. Because who knows which Crimson Tide team will show up for this weekend’s Mid Matchup against shaky Tennessee at Neyland Stadium – the Tide team that looked like a million bucks in the first 30 minutes against Georgia, or the Tide team that looked like Mike Shula was coaching them for the ensuing 150 minutes against said Bulldogs, Vanderbilt and South Carolina. We are going to go with the former … for now.

No. 7 (at-large) = Penn State Nittany Lions (Last week: 7)

“Little Game James” went and did it, edging USC last week in Los Angeles. So what does that earn Penn State – staying put, that’s what. Because we still think James Franklin’s true coaching chops are still hiding just under the surface of all this winning, Wisconsin looms in a couple weeks as a Jump Around-fueled upset possibility. Still, we love us some Drew Allar at QB, and the Nittany Lions defense has been stout outside the TMZ. Wait and see mode, however, is still engaged outside Happy Valley.

No. 8 = (at-large) Clemson Tigers (Last week: 10)

Beating the brakes off Wake Forest in Winston-Salem doesn’t exactly wow too many folks, but Clemson just keeps on putting distance between itself and losing to Georgia way back in August. A road trip to No. 20 Pitt on Nov. 16 is the only realistic thing standing in coach Dabo Swinney’s way of an ACC title game matchup against Miami – which means a lot of style points can be stacked up in the process. Keep blowin’ them out, Dabo, and we’ll keep ranking your Tigers in here.

No. 9 (at large) = Georgia Bulldogs (Last week: 6)

Along with Alabama, maybe the most mystifying team in America. The Dawgs move down 3 spots simply because teams that likely couldn’t hang on the field keep winning … anti-SEC bias and all. There was also the little matter of needing to darn near play the full 60 minutes against conference barnacle Mississippi State in Athens that needs to be factored in. Keep winning, and Georgia stays in here – especially if the Dawgs can waltz into Austin and take down the top-ranked Longhorns.

No. 10 (at-large) = BYU Cougars (last week: Unranked)

Charmin. State fair cotton candy. Pure down pillows. All compare to just how alarmingly soft BYU’s Big 12 schedule is – as only a home victory against then-No. 13 Kansas State is the only Top 25 test to date. Unranked/still dangerous Oklahoma State heads to Provo on Friday night, and who knows which Cowboys team might actually show up to challenge the Cougars. After that, um, a road trip to Utah? Geez. This slate is 4-ply-level soft.

No. 11 (at-large) = Texas A&M Aggies (last week: Unranked)

Speaking of rebounding bigly after an early loss, the Aggies are suddenly playing football like gangbusters in College Station. Texas A&M absolutely exposed Missouri for the poseurs they were last week at Kyle Field, and Mississippi State figures to be merely an exercise in formality. The Aggies get LSU at home on Oct. 26, and that will be the truest test since Notre Dame took them down on Sept. 1. We like ‘em in that one, but Texas on Nov. 30, on the other hand …

No. 12 (automatic, Group of 5) = Boise State Broncos (last week: 12)

The Broncos proudly rep the Mountain West here, having won both high-flying offensive shootouts (56-45 over Georgia Southern) and defensive struggles (28-7 last week at Hawaii). Remember, this team only lost to Oregon by 3 on Sept. 8. We love us some Aston Jeanty (1,248 rushing yards, 17 TDs), and he is steadily becoming a trendy Heisman flavor.

Dropped out: Ole Miss Rebels, LSU Tigers

How it would look …

1st-round byes: Texas, Oregon, Miami, Texas Tech

1st-round games:

No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State (winner plays No. 4 Texas Tech)

No. 9 Georgia at No. 8 Clemson (winner plays No. 1 Texas)

No. 10 BYU at No. 7 Penn State (winner plays No. 2 Oregon)

No. 11 Texas A&M at No. 6 Alabama (winner plays No. 3 Miami)

Quarterfinal games:

12/5 winner vs. No. 4 Texas Tech

9/8 winner vs. No. 1 Texas

10/7 winner vs. No. 2 Oregon

11/6 winner vs. No. 3 Miami

Semifinals:

4 seed winner vs. 1 seed winner

2 seed winner vs. 3 seed winner