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Oh what a difference a week makes. Every week.
Last week in this space, we were extolling the virtues of the Texas Longhorns, who were riding herd over the SEC and the nation with the top-ranked team in the country.
Until Georgia visited Austin, anyway …
Such is life trying to project the expanded College Football Playoff field. A single bad week, and you can go from top dogs to watching the Dawgs take your spot among the top 4 teams. Another team in the state fared even worse, going from “in” to completely “out” within the span of 60 minutes.
The rest? Away we go as we project the 12-team Playoff entering Week 9!
First-round byes
No. 1 = Oregon Ducks (Last week: 2)
Welcome to the big time, Ducks! The past 3 teams who held the top-ranked spot in the land this season spit the bit – as Georgia, Alabama and Texas each couldn’t handle the heat within their own conference. Purdue barely provided token resistance last Friday, as Oregon recorded its first road shutout in over 30 years. A marginally tougher task is on tap this week when No. 20 Illinois visits. Can Illini coach Bret Bielema trigger even more drama?
No. 2 = Miami Hurricanes (LW: 3)
We will give the Hurricanes this: They don’t win boring games. After back-to-back comeback victories over Virginia Tech and Cal, Miami had to survive a road shootout at Louisville. Watching the Canes week after week can cause agita to the weak of heart, but man they are entertaining. As rivalry games go, Miami-Florida State used to draw national attention. Now? They’re lucky Canes-Noles wasn’t relegated a 10 am kickoff on Tubi.
No. 3 = Georgia Bulldogs (LW: 9)
Yes, Georgia had to eat a road loss at rapidly tumbling Alabama … but when you go into Austin and knock off the No. 1 team in the country the way the Bulldogs did, you change a lot of minds. Beating Texas the way Georgia did (likely) means there won’t be an undefeated SEC team this season, which is kind of what anyone with a big dose of common sense on board could have predicted before the season. QB Carson Beck is legit, and if you don’t like it, you can always throw water bottles onto the field to change anyone’s mind.
No. 4 = BYU Cougars (LW: 10)
The Cougars are this week’s flavor du jour, especially after Texas Tech went down to Baylor. We knew Oklahoma State would be a battle, and BYU answered the bell 38-35. Nary a ranked team dots the rest of the Cougars’ schedule, starting with a road trip to Orlando this weekend to play UCF. Win out and BYU stays put above Iowa State (which must face No. 16 Kansas State on Nov. 30) here in this predictor.
Seeds 5-12
No. 5 (at-large) = Ohio State Buckeyes (LW: 5)
This spot is basically reserved for whomever wins Saturday’s Ohio State-Penn State tussle – but at this moment we still think the 1-loss Buckeyes are a better team than the undefeated Nittany Lions. Get past this trip to Happy Valley, and Ryan Day’s crew still has to get by No. 13 Indiana (what, Indiana is still undefeated?) on Nov. 23 and then the annual date with the M-team at The Horseshoe on Nov. 30.
No. 6 (at-large) = Penn State Nittany Lions (LW: 7)
Listen, we know Penn State is undefeated. And yes, “Little Game James” Franklin side-stepped the first land mine of the season last week at Southern Cal. But when Fox moved Saturday’s game out of what would be an insane night-time atmosphere to a noon kickoff to accommodate the World Series, a lot of Beaver Stadium’s advantage goes out the window. We just still aren’t quite believers in Penn State … yet.
No. 7 (at-large) = Clemson Tigers (LW: 8)
All together now: Clemson’s only loss this season was to Georgia way back in August. Dabo Swinney’s Tigers continue to just kind of hang around, winning 48-31 inside Death Valley last weekend against Virginia. Hanging nearly half-a-hundred on another ACC team is exactly the kind of style points we prescribed here in this very space last season. Keep on keeping on, Clemson, and you stay in this range.
No. 8 (at-large) = Texas Longhorns (LW: 1)
Oh, how the mighty can fall. Steve Sarkisian’s Longhorns ran into a defensive freight train last week at home against Georgia, falling so far behind not even their unruly student section could buy enough water bottles at the concession stands to throw in an effort to undo the outcome. Now a quarter-million poorer as well, Texas currently is hanging onto a Playoff home game by a threat with a trip to No. 25 Vanderbilt (gasp!) on the immediate horizon.
No. 9 (at-large) = Tennessee Volunteers (LW: unranked)
Oh, what could have been had Arkansas not ruined things in Fayetteville back on Oct. 6. Tennessee’s offense still feels like a huge work in progress despite playing the porous Crimson Tide last weekend – but the defense stood up for 60 full minutes to Alabama en route to a cigar-smoking 24-17 victory. Georgia still looms in less than a month in Athens, as does a trip to suddenly dangerous Vandy at season’s end.
No. 10 (at-large) = Texas A&M Aggies (LW: 11)
We can’t help but have a soft heart for Aggieland, in that they are so adorably weird with their Yell Leaders and cadets and such. Only a season-opening loss to Notre Dame blemishes Texas A&M’s slate, and the Aggies certainly can boast about exposing then-No. 9 Missouri by 31. Only downing Mississippi State by 10 last weekend is a bit of a concern, but all will be right in Aggieland if the 11 men on the field beat No. 8 LSU this Saturday night in a battle of the only 2 teams with perfect SEC records.
No. 11 (at-large) = Iowa State Cyclones (LW: Unranked)
We understand the argument for the Cyclones and BYU switching places, but Iowa State hasn’t exactly thrilled in spots while going 7-0 this season. Beating arch-rival Iowa in Week 2 is good no matter what the score, but almost losing at home against UCF last weekend is closer to the opposite. We could easily see Iowa State being upset – either this week at home against Texas Tech or on the road the following week at Kansas.
No. 12 (automatic, Group of 5) = Boise State Broncos (LW: 12)
The 17th-ranked Broncos still lay claim to being the best Mountain West team and best Group of 5 team out there (thus earning the automatic bid …), largely because they rebounded from losing 37-34 in Week 2 to Oregon with 3 blowouts and a solid win at Hawaii.
Having the nation’s leading rusher (Ashton Jeanty) emerge as a legitimate Heisman threat doesn’t hurt, either.
A trip to Sun City to take on fellow Mountain West unbeaten UNLV on Friday night is must-see TV, as the winner has the inside track to both the conference title and this spot. But then again, Army and Navy are undefeated out there …
Dropped out: Alabama Crimson Tide, Texas Tech Red Raiders
How it would look …
1st-round byes: Oregon, Miami, Georgia, BYU
1st-round games:
- No. 12 Boise State at No. 5 Ohio State (winner plays No. 4 BYU)
- No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Texas (winner plays No. 1 Oregon)
- No. 10 Texas A&M at No. 7 Clemson (winner plays No. 2 Miami)
- No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Penn State (winner plays No. 3 Georgia)
Quarterfinal games:
- 12/5 winner vs. No. 4 BYU
- 9/8 winner vs. No. 1 Oregon
- 10/7 winner vs. No. 2 Miami
- 11/6 winner vs. No. 3 Georgia
Semifinals:
- 4 seed winner vs. 1 seed winner
- 2 seed winner vs. 3 seed winner
Winners advance to the national championship game on Monday, Jan. 20, 2025.
An APSE national award-winning writer and page designer, David Wasson has almost four decades of experience in the print journalism business in Florida and Alabama. His work has also appeared in The New York Times, The Washington Post, the Los Angeles Times and several national magazines and websites. His Twitter handle: @JustDWasson.