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Purdue football: 5 keys for putting a wrench in Michigan’s State’s feel-good story
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Purdue will get a chance to upset the Big Ten East in the next 2 weeks, taking on AP No. 5 Michigan State in Ross-Ade Stadium Saturday before playing No. 6 Ohio State in the ‘Shoe next week.
The Boilermakers will be underdogs in each — it’s plus-2.5 vs. MSU and will get double-digits at OSU — but they’ve been there before. In the last 3 weeks, Purdue’s scored 2 road upsets, beating 10.5-point favorite Iowa before taking down 7.5-point favorite Nebraska. Now, Purdue gets more opportunities.
But first things first. The Boilermakers will get a visit from the Spartans at 3:30 p.m. Saturday, with undefeated Michigan State riding high from its win over Michigan, a victory that not only vaulted it deeper into Big Ten East contention but put it in position reach the College Football Playoff.
Purdue, though, has a chance to spoil all of it. Let’s take a look at 5 keys to doing so.
Play like it’s a road game
Maybe the Boilermakers need to hop on a flight from the campus airport, get about 30,000 feet in the air, take a couple laps around northwest Indiana and then land.
Because Purdue needs to simulate a road game as close as it possibly can. It’s hard to argue that the Boilermakers aren’t a better road team than a home one at this point, considering they’ve beaten then No. 2 Iowa and Nebraska the last 2 games away from Ross-Ade Stadium — they were underdogs in each — but have lost to Minnesota and Wisconsin at home.
What gives?
Hard to say.
Arguably the home opponents were bad matchups. Minnesota caught Purdue on a miserably rainy day in West Lafayette, as the Gophers got an early second-half score and rode the margin to a win. Wisconsin has beaten Purdue in every meeting since 2003, usually in dominant fashion, and the Badgers did so again in Ross-Ade.
On the other hand, Purdue has traditionally matched up well vs. Iowa and got to take on a Nebraska team that has grown far too accustomed to losing close games.
Where will Michigan State fall on the spectrum? We’ll know by Saturday evening.
Speaking road/home splits …
Maybe the differential between Purdue’s performance on the road vs. at home comes down to one player: quarterback Aidan O’Connell.
The veteran signal-caller has been much, much better on the road than at home. The splits:
Home (Illinois, Minnesota, Wisconsin): 70-103, 753, 3 TDs, 6 INTs.
Road (UConn, ND, Iowa, Nebraska): 84-114, 798, 6 TDs, 2 INTs.
It’s a staggering differential for the veteran, who came off the bench for the first 4 games of the season before starting the last 4. Even taking into account only O’Connell’s 4 starts, the TD-to-interception ratio is significantly different — 1-to-2 at home, 2-to-1 away.
Clearly, if Purdue is to upset Michigan State on Saturday, O’Connell needs to treat the game more like it’s away from West Lafayette.
Finding Fineran
Purdue might find itself in a close game vs. Michigan State on Saturday.
If so, every point will matter.
Field goals, too.
And, well, the Boilermakers’ place-kicker, once a bright spot, has lost his touch of late, missing 4 of his last 5 FG attempts and an extra point. And that’s after Mitchell Fineran had made the first 9 field goals of his Purdue career. Jeff Brohm wants Fineran, a transfer from Samford, to relax and regain his confidence. But it might not all be on the kicker; Brohm has alluded to issues with holding — the first miss of this recent string came after a bad hold — and pressure off the left side of the line. Both might be contributing to Fineran losing focus.
Purdue has few other options — Ben Freehill has kicked off but hasn’t attempted a FG or PAT in a game — so it’s likely going to be on Fineran to get the issues resolved as quickly as possible.
Keep running
Purdue turned in only its second 100-yard rushing game in the win at Nebraska.
And the other one was against pathetic UConn, so it barely counts.
But if the Boilermakers want to continue to upset opponents, they’ll need to continue to maintain at least relative balance. Zander Horvath’s return after being sidelined since Game 2 (vs. the Huskies) with a broken leg was a huge boost. He was sore, per Brohm, after Saturday’s return, when he had 24 yards rushing, but was in good shape. He and Jackson Anthrop, who is a slot receiver, gave the Boilermakers a huge boost. Anthrop finished with 25 yards rushing on 5 carries, plus had the game-winning touchdown reception from out of the backfield.
In all, the Boilermakers totaled 116 rushing yards vs. the Cornhuskers.
Michigan State’s pass defense is the worst in the Big Ten, which should be favorable to Purdue, but its rush defense has been OK; it ranks 5th in the Big Ten, allowing 122 yards per game.
Stop MSU’s running
Easier said than done, but to beat Michigan State, a defense has to find a way to at least slow down Kenneth Walker III.
Not easy. The running back has 1,194 yards in 8 games this season, as he’s averaging 149.5 yards per game and 6.8 yards per carry, plus he has 14 touchdowns. He’s been good, to say the least, and put himself in position to be an invitee to New York City as a Heisman Trophy finalist.
Can Purdue slow him down?
Maybe slow but not stop. The Boilermakers’ rush defense is No. 9 in the Big Ten, allowing 138.5 yards per game, so Purdue will be stretched to the limit.
Kyle Charters, a familiar face at Gold & Black, covers Purdue, Indiana and college basketball for Saturday Tradition.