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Losing 2 straight games has put Purdue in the passenger seat in the race for a Big Ten West title.
But although it has dropped games to Wisconsin and Iowa on opposite sides of a bye weekend, not all is lost. Purdue still has a reasonable shot at a crown, if it can get righted enough to win 3 straight games, then see Illinois, Wisconsin and Iowa each lose an additional game. Illinois still plays at Michigan, while the Badgers and Hawkeyes play each other — this Saturday in Iowa City — and each still have dates with Minnesota.
In other words, Purdue’s path isn’t as direct as before, but it’s not as impassable as it could be. But the Boilermakers have to find answers to what has plagued them the last couple weeks in getting beaten in Madison, then at home vs. the Hawkeyes.
Let’s take a look at 5 reasons the Boilermakers can turn it around:
Track record
During Jeff Brohm’s 6-year tenure at Purdue, the Boilermakers have shown an ability to fight back when pushed against a wall.
And they find themselves there right now, as a 6.5-point underdog at Illinois, needing a recovery after disappointing showings the last 2 outings. One doesn’t have to look earlier than this season to see the pattern. After a disappointing, self-inflicted loss at Syracuse in Week 3 — and losing their starting quarterback to injury — the Boilermakers returned the next week to eke out a victory over FAU with their backup QB. Then, Purdue won back-to-back road games, as an underdog, at Minnesota and Maryland.
A year ago, Purdue was limping through the first half of the season, before it settled in on Aidan O’Connell as its starting quarterback and reeled off victories in 6 of the final 8 games of the season, including a Music City Bowl thriller over Tennessee. In 2018, Purdue needed a win at Indiana to gain bowl eligibility, and got a 7-point win in Bloomington. In ’17, Purdue won at Iowa by 9, then against IU by 7 to rally to 6-6 in Brohm’s debut season.
The challenges now are big — Purdue has struggled in its pass defense and with turnovers lately — but Brohm and the Boilermakers have faced similar before and come out on top.
O’Connell will be better
Purdue has to feel like O’Connell will snap out of his recent funk.
The 6th-year senior quarterback is enduring one of the most difficult stretches of his career, having thrown 5 interceptions in the past 2 losses. It’s possible O’Connell is putting too much pressure on himself to try to get the Boilermakers rolling once again. In reality, it’s not all on him. Purdue needs to rely on the running game more frequently, and it can now with emerging redshirt freshman running back Devin Mockobee.
Purdue found itself in bad 3rd-down situations vs. the Hawkeyes, then only converted 2 of its 16 attempts. Getting into more manageable 3rd downs is a must, whether it’s with a short-passing game or more commitment to the running game.
O’Connell has been zeroing in on Charlie Jones of late — and it’s been a good connection — but the QB could stand to distribute more evenly, and it’ll likely be an emphasis this week. A return of trusted veteran Broc Thompson could help, but it’s not clear whether the wide receiver, who has been rehabbing a knee injury, will be back by Saturday.
All in on defense
Purdue is still looking for answers in the back half of its defense, where the Boilermakers are giving up too many big plays in the passing game.
At this point in the season, the solutions are unlikely to cause a 180 in performance, but perhaps Purdue can make some adjustments that will throw extra help in the direction of the passing defense. Against Illinois, it’s likely Purdue will try to sell out to slow down the run — it’s a must against Illini back Chase Brown — but it might also bring additional pressures to shake quarterback Tommy DeVito. If the defense is going to give up yardage, then perhaps the elixir is trying to create a turnover or 2 by getting after the quarterback. The Boilermakers were able to do so in the 1st half of the season, but have seen those opportunities dry up of late.
Purdue’s gathered only 1 turnover the past 2 games, with the only takeaway being on a lost fumble from the Badgers.
The series
The Purdue-Illinois series — the rivals play for the Cannon — has been upside down of late.
Since 2012, the road team is 8-2 in the series, with the home team winning only when the Boilermakers were victorious in 2017 and ’21. Purdue has won 5 straight games in the series in Champaign, with its last loss there coming in 2010, when the Fighting Illini hammered the Boilermakers 44-10.
Inside the numbers
Illinois’ pass defense ranks No. 1 in the Big Ten, as the Illini give up only 152.6 yards per game.
Although Illinois is solid defensively — it gives up only 10.4 points per game, best in the nation — perhaps it’s not as robust as the numbers indicate. The Fighting Illini have played only 1 team ranked in the top-5 in the Big Ten in passing yards, and that was No. 5 Indiana, which they lost to in their 2nd game of the season. (Of course, it’s also possible Purdue, Ohio State, Penn State and Maryland are 1 through 4 in passing yardage because they’ve not played Illinois.) Michigan State, which is the Big Ten’s 7th-best passing offense, beat Illinois on Saturday.
Perhaps O’Connell and the Boilermakers, who are No. 1 in the B1G in passing at 298 yards per game, will be able to move the ball more like the Hoosiers and the Spartans, who combined for 512 passing yards in their victories over Illinois.
Kyle Charters, a familiar face at Gold & Black, covers Purdue, Indiana and college basketball for Saturday Tradition.