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Purdue football: 5 statistical trends the Boilermakers must reverse in 2022
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Purdue is coming off its best season in more than a decade, yet if it’s to take another step forward, it’ll need to make some changes in 2022.
And that’s the goal. The Boilermakers don’t want to be an also-ran in the Big Ten West; they want to win it.
With the opener against Penn State less than a week away, let’s take a look at 5 statistical trends that need to reverse this season if Purdue is to win the West.
Only 84 yards rushing per game (127th in the country)
Under Jeff Brohm, the Boilermakers are not going to rely on the running game as a major part of their offense.
The statistics prove it. Not only did Purdue finish last in the Big Ten in rushing (and 127th of 130 FBS teams in the country) at only 84 yards per game last season, but it marked the 3rd consecutive season the Boilermakers were at the very bottom of the conference. In 2020, Purdue was 124th nationally (of 127) and it was 126th (of 130) in ’19.
But for the Boilermakers to win the Big Ten West — not just compete to do so — they’re going to have to take at least a small tick upward. What’s that mean? Running the ball better in the red zone, picking up short-yardage on 3rd down and making an occasional big play that keeps a defense at least somewhat off-balance.
Whether Purdue can do that this season, given it’s personnel, remains to be seen. Incumbent running back King Doerue is likely the starter, after he gained a team-high 533 yards last season while averaging 3.9 per carry. He should get a breather, at times, from newcomer Koby Lewis, a former 1,000-yard rusher at Central Michigan (2019) before a knee injury put him on the sideline.
Red zone TD rate of only 47.4%
Last season, Purdue scored when it reached the red zone at a nearly 86 percent clip, ranking No. 49 in the country. That’s not terrible.
What is?
That the Boilermakers scored a touchdown in only 47.4 percent of those chances (27 of 57), having to settle for field goals in 22 other instances. That’s poor, to say the least, ranking No. 122 in the country. Yikes.
For a program that hangs its hat on its ability to put points on the board, and do so in a hurry, the hiccups in the red zone are frustrating. And after Purdue’s first scrimmage of training camp this month, Brohm lamented that the Boilermakers labored again inside the 20. This might remain an early-season storyline. It doesn’t help that Purdue doesn’t rush the ball well and that it lost its No. 2 tight end, Garrett Miller, to an ACL injury during the preseason.
Only 26 sacks last season
Purdue was in the middle of the pack nationally in sacks last season, as its 26 ranked No. 73.
Not great, but not bad.
However, that came with George Karlaftis, who totaled 4.5 sacks in his last season in West Lafayette before becoming a 1st-round draft pick by Kansas City earlier this spring. Now that Karlaftis is departed, how will the Boilermakers replicate — or better — their production?
It’ll be hard. Purdue will need more of a collective effort from a deep and potentially talented, but starless (as least as it appears right now) defensive line. Maybe Kydran Jenkins sees more opportunity, after having 5 sacks last season. Or newcomer Scotty Humpich can develop into a pass-rush specialist. Defensive tackle Branson Deen is a mobile, athletic big man who could get pressure from the interior.
Regardless of where it comes from, Purdue wants to see the total increase.
Scoring average of 29.1
For a team that leans so heavily on its scoring, Purdue was inconsistent last season, to say the least.
It meant the Boilermakers averaged only 29.1 points per game, good for only 60th-best in the country. Purdue struggled early in the season, before Aidan O’Connell became the starting quarterback, turning in 3 straight games in which it scored only 13 points in each. Purdue actually won one of those, beating Illinois when O’Connell came off the bench.
By the second half of the season, the Boilermakers started rolling, scoring at least 32 in each of their last 4 victories, including 44 in the regular-season finale vs. Indiana and then 48 in in the Music City Bowl overtime victory over Tennessee. Will the late-season run continue in ’22? That’s Purdue’s goal. If the scoring average gets into the mid-30s this season, then Purdue’s chances of a Big Ten West title increase significantly.
Tackled for losses 79 times
Purdue was particularly bad on third-and-short situations last season, particularly when it tried to run the football.
One reason was that the Boilermakers allowed the opponent far too many tackles for loss. Opponents totaled 79 tackles behind the line of scrimmage (for 325 yards), which ranked Purdue No. 82 in the country. Purdue’s quarterbacks were sacked 29 times, ranking No. 74 in the country and 11th in the Big Ten.
The Boilermakers like their offensive line this season, particularly the veteran left side, so Purdue hopes that’ll equal fewer sacks allowed and better production on short-yardage situations.
Kyle Charters, a familiar face at Gold & Black, covers Purdue, Indiana and college basketball for Saturday Tradition.