QB1 in Game 1? What history tells us to expect from CJ Stroud on Thursday night

CJ Stroud is about to have a Thursday night to remember. When Ryan Day made official what was long suspected — that Stroud would open the season as Ohio State’s starting quarterback — the question moved from who would be the man to how that man would do. History often repeats itself, so to get some context for what might occur against Minnesota, we looked at OSU’s last 6 QBs in their debut starts. Here are their stories — and a guess at what we might expect from Stroud against the Golden Gophers in Minneapolis.

Braxton Miller: 5-for-13, 82 yards, 2 TDs, 83 rushing yards (37-17 win over Colorado, 2011)

A true freshman starter, Miller took over in game four after an ugly loss to Miami. Miller’s career was definitely a product of the prior OSU regime — he passed for just over 5,000 yards playing in most of 3 seasons as a starting QB for the Buckeyes, but he rushed for over 3,000 more yards during the same period.

Kenny Guiton: 21-for-32, 276 yards, 4 TDs, 92 rushing yards (52-34 win over Cal, 2013)

Guiton was a redshirt senior who replaced the injured Miller for a pair of starts in 2013. His first game was impressive, as he approached 300 yards in the air and 100 on the ground. Guiton went on to throw for 6 first-half touchdowns in his second start, despite which Miller soon reclaimed his starting job.

J.T. Barrett: 12-for-15, 226 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 50 yards rushing (34-17 win over Navy, 2014)

Barrett was a redshirt freshman who won the starting job to open the season after a season-ending injury to Miller. Of all the players on this list, Barrett’s starting situation is probably the closest to Stroud’s — a second-year guy seeing his first real action and taking the reins to open the season. Barrett was very steady in his first career start, balancing the run and pass efficiently.

Cardale Jones: 12-for-17, 257 yards, 3 TDs, 9 yards rushing (59-0 win over Wisconsin, Big Ten Championship Game, 2014)

On the other hand, Jones was a 3rd-year sophomore who made his first start in the Big Ten Championship Game after an injury to Barrett. While the circumstances that landed Jones the job were far from ideal for OSU fans, the Buckeyes wouldn’t mind seeing Stroud repeat the path of Jones’s first performances, which of course, culminated in the most recent OSU national title.

Dwayne Haskins: 22-for-30, 313 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT, 24 yards rushing (77-31 win over Oregon State, 2018)

Haskins was another 3rd-year sophomore when he took the starting reins. After biding his time for 2 seasons behind Barrett, Haskins was the man to open the 2018 season, and his 313 passing yards and 5 touchdowns are standing records for OSU QBs in their 1st start. It was Haskins’s only season starting for the Buckeyes, but nobody had a better debut performance.

Justin Fields: 18-for-25, 234 yards, 4 TDs, 61 yards rushing, 1 TD (45-21 win over Florida Atlantic, 2019)

The most recent OSU starting QB, Fields was a true sophomore transfer after being a backup at Georgia in 2018. His ascendancy to the starting job was pretty near a certainty, and he showed few signs of rust in a solid season-opening performance against Florida Atlantic.

What does it mean for Stroud?

Braxton Miller and JT Barrett are definitely the guys whose career arc was at a spot most similar to Stroud’s when they made their starting debuts. That said, Miller’s offensive system was very different from where the Buckeyes are now. It’d be bizarre to see Stroud attempt so few passes (13) or manage as few passing yards (83) as Miller did. Barrett’s initial game is really the most similar to Stroud’s. While Miller took over in the fourth game of his first season after an ugly loss, Barrett took the job out of fall camp. His performance would be consistent with expectations for Stroud — although only throwing 15 passes seems a little modest.

Kenny Guiton’s 32 passes were the most attempted in a first start by any these last 6 starting QBs. Look for Stroud to approach, if not best that. So 25-35 passes seems sensible. With the exception of Miller, each of these quarterbacks passed for 226 yards or better; 250 yards seems like a safe, conservative estimate for Stroud’s day.

Multiple touchdowns and a victory have also been consistent features. The former certainly seems likely, but as for the latter, other than Cardale Jones’s Big Ten title game debut, none of these starters broke in with a conference game. If Stroud can take care of business and get the Buckeyes to 1-0, a slightly lower completion percentage and fewer passing yards will be quickly forgotten in Columbus.

Joe Cox

Veteran college writer Joe Cox covers Ohio State and college basketball for Saturday Tradition.