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Reevaluating every B1G East team’s ceiling at the midway point of the season
By Ryan O'Gara
Published:
Since the Big Ten East teams are all at the halfway point or a little past halfway, it’s a good time to take a look at what each of these teams can actually be in terms of ceiling. I did Crystal Ball predictions for every team in the preseason, so I’ll link back to those as well to see how much my perspective has changed on certain teams.
Looking at my Michigan State and Indiana predictions from the preseason should bring you great enjoyment!
No. 5 Ohio State (5-1, 3-0)
Crystal Ball prediction: 11-1, 1st in East
Ceiling: 11-1, Big Ten title and national championship
Outlook: After a few shaky games early, the Buckeyes are once again the unequivocal favorite to not only win the East, but the entire Big Ten. I think whoever comes out of the East will be favored against Iowa (or Minnesota or Purdue) in the Big Ten Championship Game, and if it’s Ohio State, it will be 2-3 touchdowns. Ohio State does have 4 top-25 teams in the second half of the schedule, but 3 of them (Penn State, Purdue and Michigan State) are at home, with Michigan being the lone road game.
No. 6 Michigan (6-0, 3-0)
Ceiling: 11-1, New Year’s 6 bowl
Outlook: Given the way Ohio State has played the last few weeks, Michigan as currently constructed has a very low chance of winning that game, even if it is at the Big House. With road games at fellow top-10 teams Michigan State and Penn State, the Wolverines should be thrilled to win 2 of 3 of those games. I’ll be interested to see how they look coming off their bye week and if they integrate JJ McCarthy even more.
No. 9 Michigan State (7-0, 4-0)
Crystal Ball prediction: 4-8, 7th in East
Ceiling: 10-2, New Year’s 6 bowl
Outlook: It’s been a wildly successful season already. Heck, Michigan State has already more than doubled the amount of wins I thought it would get in Mel Tucker’s second season. But look at the last 5 games on the schedule: vs. No. 6 Michigan, at No. 25 Purdue, vs. Maryland, at No. 5 Ohio State and vs. No. 7 Penn State. If the Spartans go 3-2 in that stretch, that would be impressive. Here’s the thing about Michigan State so far: It’s great to be 7-0, but not 1 of those teams they’ve beaten is over .500. Maryland (4-2) is the worst team left on the schedule.
No. 7 Penn State (5-1, 2-1)
Crystal Ball prediction: 9-3, 3rd in East
Ceiling: 10-2
Outlook: To truly determine Penn State’s ceiling, it’s imperative to know the status of QB Sean Clifford. If he is going to miss time after the big hit to his ribs during the Iowa game, Penn State could lose to anyone. Ta’Quan Roberson did not look like he is ready to lead a team to a win against any Big Ten team after going 7-of-21 for 34 yards against Iowa. If Clifford can get back by November, Penn State should be favored in every game, even with 2 top-10 teams on the schedule in No. 6 Michigan and No. 9 Michigan State. With or without Clifford, I don’t think Penn State is winning at Ohio State on Oct. 30.
Maryland (4-2, 1-2)
Crystal Ball prediction: 6-6, 5th in East
Ceiling: 7-5
Outlook: So far, Maryland has beaten the 4 teams it should have and lost to the 2 teams it should have. There are 3 games against unranked teams left on the schedule: at Minnesota, vs. Indiana and at Rutgers. The Terrapins don’t look like they are ready to beat a top-10 team quite yet.
Rutgers (3-4, 0-4)
Crystal Ball prediction: 6-6, 6th in East
Ceiling: 6-6
Outlook: While the Scarlet Knights’ ceiling is 6-6, I don’t think they get there based off last week’s lost at Northwestern. That was a game that I thought Rutgers really needed to have in order to make a bowl. Rutgers could certainly win at Illinois, at Indiana and vs. Maryland, but I could also see it going 1-2 in those games.
Indiana (2-4, 0-3)
Crystal Ball prediction: 9-3, 2nd in East
Ceiling: 5-7
Outlook: I can’t decide which team I was most wrong about, Michigan State or Indiana. The Hoosiers have played 4 of the current top 11 teams in the country, but even so, this has not been close to the same team as last season. And with Ohio State, Michigan and Purdue still left, it’s possible the Hoosiers could face 7 top-25 teams this season. I don’t think Indiana even will get to 5 wins, though that is possible.
Ryan O'Gara is the lead columnist for Saturday Tradition. Follow him on Twitter @RyanOGara.