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Ohio State has it all — a dynamic offense, a well-regarded young head coach, and virtual ownership of a Power 5 football conference. Well, OK, they almost have it all — they don’t have a CFP title since 2014.
For about 120 FBS teams, that’s like saying they haven’t won the lottery this month. But among the programs that matter, the movers and shakers, OSU’s inability to win the big one is significant. And while the Buckeyes have plenty of reasons for optimism in 2022, starting with a Heisman favorite under center, here’s the other side of the coin.
For all the Negative Nellies out there, here are reasons the Buckeyes could fall short of a CFP berth or the kind of season they expect.
1. What if the defense doesn’t take?
Look, it happened a year ago. Kerry Coombs’ defense got shredded in the games when the Buckeyes really needed it. Oregon and Michigan absolutely could pick their respective poisons against the Buckeyes, demolishing Ohio State with run and pass at will.
Given one of the most potent offenses in the country, if OSU’s defense had been merely OK, the Buckeyes would have been in the CFP. Jim Knowles is supposed to fix things, and there’s plenty of reason to think he will. But there also has to be a nagging thought that a coordinator from the league of no defenses isn’t going to hold the magical key, that Day’s high-octane offense will leave any defense, even a good one, on the field for far too long. Even the most optimistic Buckeyes fan will hold his or her breath the first time a big 3rd-down stop is needed. The skeptical fan? Has to be horrified.
2. That opener
Opening with Notre Dame is a gutsy move, a signal to the football world that the Buckeyes are ready for all comers. And hey, last year’s early loss to Oregon didn’t really harm the Buckeyes’ Playoff chances. They bounced back and had the CFP in front of them had they outlasted Michigan.
But Notre Dame in the opener is different. Losing to Oregon felt odd and flukish. Losing to Notre Dame would feel like a step down, the kind of thing that could spiral OSU’s season into a place they don’t want to go.
Ultimately, the Buckeyes have more talent, aren’t opening the era of a new head coach, and will probably take care of business. But in a sport where they are plenty of tune-ups in Week 1, the Buckeyes are taking a risk with this opener.
3. What if the improved receiver depth doesn’t equate to better production?
Last season, Ohio State’s dynamic passing game had 3 massive weapons in Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Smith-Njigba had the best numbers and he’s back. But the other 2 spots figure to be played by a rotating cast of players.
However good those players are — and they were touted recruits — they’ll be hard-pressed to top the 135 catches for 1,994 yards and 25 touchdowns that Olave and Wilson delivered.
And now, Smith-Njigba will draw the top cover corner every week. The offense’s success may depend heavily on solidifying those No. 2 and No. 3 spots. Marvin Harrison, Julian Fleming and the rest are capable of emerging as standouts, but if they don’t, CJ Stroud’s 2nd season at the helm might not run as smoothly as expected.
4. Turnovers could spell turnaround
Some of football success is talent, some is just plain luck. OSU committed a league-low 11 turnovers in 13 games last season. Yes, Day has put Stroud in an offense where he generally had safe, reliable options. There might be fewer options this season, and Stroud may take more chances than last year, when he threw just 6 picks. And it would be almost mathematically impossible for OSU to lose just 3 fumbles (as it did last year) out of 423 carries and 349 receptions. OSU was +9 in turnovers in 2021. A break-even season would put more stress on that question mark of a defense.
5. Offensive line changes
Despite their offensive success last season, Day let offensive line coach Greg Studrawa go, replacing him with UCLA assistant Justin Frye. OSU returns 3 starters on the line, albeit with Paris Johnson Jr. slated to move outside from guard to tackle.
The line was outstanding last season, allowing just 17 sacks, even with pocket-based passing game, and clearing the way for 5.5 yards per carry on the ground. But a new coach and a couple of new starters could make life tougher.
OSU was 12th in the conference in sacks allowed in both 2019 and 2020, and if the changes here don’t work well, it might take the wind out of the sails of that offense.
6. Secondary issues
A significant part of Knowles’ job in Columbus will be getting better play out of a frankly disappointing secondary. OSU allowed passers to complete 61.6% of their throws for 245.8 yards per game in 2021. They also allowed 21 TD passes — the most since allowing an astonishing 31 in 2013.
Yes, some of those numbers came in garbage time. But Ohio State has to have playmakers in the secondary, and with the exception of Denzel Burke and Ronnie Hickman, there are some real questions here. In a Big Ten featuring an increasing number of potent offenses, Ohio State’s secondary is one Achilles’ heel that remains exposed. If OSU stumbles, the back end of the defense is probably where the problem gets serious.
Veteran college writer Joe Cox covers Ohio State and college basketball for Saturday Tradition.