The 1 fatal flaw that could derail the 4 Big Ten national title hopefuls

Ohio State is a barnstorming defending national champion that’s 1 win from an undefeated regular season, with revenge on its mind against Michigan and repeat glory on its mind in January.

Indiana is a basketball blue blood with a serious case of football fever, closing in on that elusive first Heisman Trophy and, just maybe, a national championship trophy, too.

Oregon is a program that’s done everything but win the grandest prize, and these high-flying Ducks are surging at the right time and laser-focused on making up for last year.

Michigan finally captured that grand prize 2 years ago, quenching its fans’ thirst for a title after a quarter-century drought, and it knows another win over its hated rival could mean another trip to the College Football Playoff.

It’s Thanksgiving weekend and 4 Big Ten teams still harbor national title hopes. All of them are very capable, filled with motivation and stacked with reasons to believe they could be the team that gives the conference its 3rd straight national championship. But no team is perfect, and the flip side are the flaws that could keep each 1 of these Big Ten behemoths from the ultimate crown. 

We’ll choose 1 of those fatal flaws that could derail these 4 excellent teams from being the last 1 standing in January: 

Ohio State: Will Jeremiah Smith, Carnell Tate get healthy?

This is quickly becoming an issue for a team and a program that might seem invincible right now but isn’t. The Buckeyes are human, and their 2 star receivers who are incredibly important are really, really banged up right now. The severe question marks about Smith and Tate have spilled into Michigan Week, too, with Ohio State coach Ryan Day telling reporters, “We’ll see how the next 48 hours go” when asked about the wideout duo after Wednesday’s practice.

Day also told reporters that “everybody was out there” at practice, whatever that means exactly. The alarming reality is that Tate hasn’t played since Nov. 1 against Penn State, and Smith didn’t play in last week’s game against Rutgers after playing only 22 snaps against UCLA the week before. The good news for Ohio State was that it could handle those far inferior teams with relative ease either without Smith or Tate or with both of them being less than 100%.

The bad news is the Buckeyes aren’t playing a far inferior team this Saturday. They’re heading to Ann Arbor to face a rival who wants another piece of them after taking them down last year in Columbus. They’re facing a desperate rival who needs to win to preserve its Playoff hopes. And while losing yet again to Michigan wouldn’t be enough to keep Ohio State out of the Playoff, it would be a severe gut punch to its general momentum, and if Smith and Tate can’t get healthy it could be the Buckeyes’ downfall in the Playoff.

The official status of Ohio State’s 2 very important outside weapons will be revealed 2 hours before the noon ET kickoff from The Big House. Getting Smith and Tate back for the Michigan game would be beyond huge. Getting 1 of them back would be nice. Not having either would be somewhat crushing. But it’s their possible questionable health in December and January that is the most concerning thing, because the Buckeyes are human, even if they haven’t lost a football game in exactly 1 year.

Indiana: Will the burden of expectation prove too much?

This isn’t technically a fatal flaw as much as it is a product of human nature. We searched high and low for statistical flaws in the 2025 Hoosiers. We couldn’t find any. They are complete on both sides of the ball, and they have passed multiple tough road tests this season, winning at Autzen Stadium and at Beaver Stadium, 2 of the toughest places to prevail in college football.

Indiana has maximum motivation after getting a taste of the Playoff last year and falling short, and it has maximum confidence after showing this fall that 2024 was hardly a fluke. Curt Cignetti has repeatedly proved elsewhere and now in Bloomington that he’s a winner, and in a few short weeks the Hoosiers might finally be able to boast a Heisman Trophy winner in quarterback Fernando Mendoza. They would seem to have every ingredient that’s needed for a deep, magical Playoff run.

And that’s really the point here. Everything feels like it’s lined up perfectly for a program that has been lean on success — that is, until the past few years after Cignetti arrived. Indiana basketball has gone undefeated for a whole season, pulling off the monumental feat in 1976. But Indiana football has never gone unbeaten and untied for a whole year, coming the closest way back in 1945, when the Hoosiers went 9-0-1.

Indiana had never even won 10 games in a season in program history until last year, when Cignetti led the Hoosiers to that unlikely Playoff berth. They’ve reached even greater heights this fall, with 11 wins and counting going into Friday night’s rivalry matchup at Purdue. They’ll likely be 12-0 and headed to the Big Ten Championship Game, and the following Saturday night Mendoza will likely snag that first Heisman in Hoosiers history.

Can Indiana football (and its long-suffering fan base) handle all this glory and finish the job in January? It’s a tall task and a lot to ask, because as great as last year was the Hoosiers bowed out honorably but quickly in the Playoff first round. Going from first-round loser to national champion is still a big leap, and we’ll find out soon enough if Indiana football can win in the Playoff amid the burden of being expected to.

Oregon: The Ducks don’t get to the quarterback enough

It looks like Oregon has snapped out of its offensive funk. The Ducks put up 42 points in each of their past 2 games against Minnesota and USC as they take aim at old Pac-12 rival Washington this Saturday on the road. Oregon only has 1 loss, but make no mistake, the Ducks head to Seattle knowing they can’t afford to slip up even once if they want to go to the Playoff. 

And while offense seems like an old issue, a different issue could be the 1 that brings down Oregon’s latest chance to win that first national championship. It’s a statistical category that doesn’t get enough attention when assessing a team’s ability to win at the highest level. It’s sacks — not sacks allowed, sacks recorded by the defense. Oregon only has 19 of them all season, in 11 games, which is tied for 13th in the Big Ten. 

While quarterback hurries can help make up for a lack of sacks, it’s those sacks that often turn field position, that change momentum in big games and help teams get across the finish line in those big games — like Playoff games. Can a team win a lot without a lot of sacks? Yes, and this Oregon team is proof of that. But can a team win a national title without a lot of sacks? That’s the burning question, and that ultimately might be what keeps Oregon from winning it all yet again.

Look at the 3 other Big Ten national title hopefuls — Indiana is 2nd in the Big Ten in sacks with 33, Ohio State is 4th with 29 and Michigan is 5th with 28. Those totals are a big step up from 19 sacks, especially when you consider it’s over nearly an entire regular season. Can these Ducks make up for that difference in other areas? Sure. But it’s a shortcoming that can’t be ignored, especially when the goal is January.

Michigan: Can a banged up running back room hold up?

It’s never, ever a bad thing when you can run the ball successfully. It’s always been a key ingredient to winning, and it always will be. Michigan ranks 2nd in the Big Ten in rushing with 2,458 yards on the ground this season, and the Wolverines will try to punish their hated rival on Saturday with that attack. Michigan has 2 running backs — Jordan Marshall and Alabama transfer Justice Haynes — who have gone over 800 yards this season, and each of them have 10 rushing touchdowns.

That’s all been a blessing, but this isn’t — Haynes is out for the rest of the regular season with a right foot injury, and his return for any potential Playoff games is uncertain. He hasn’t played in over a month after getting injured on Oct. 25 against Michigan State, and Haynes will sit out his 4th straight game to end the regular season on Saturday. Fortunately, Marshall is expected to play against Ohio State after sitting out last week against Maryland, but what’s made Michigan’s offense go this year has suddenly been tested.

The Wolverines passed that test against the lowly Terrapins, rushing for 228 yards and 4 touchdowns despite not having Haynes or Marshall, as Bryson Kuzdazl led the way with 100 yards and 3 TDs. But passing muster against the top-ranked Buckeyes will be a whole different animal, because that’s a big step up in competition and because everything is on the line for Michigan. If its depleted and banged up running back room can’t make up for a passing game that ranks 13th in the Big Ten in yards this season, then there will be no mystery for Michigan on Selection Sunday.

The 2-loss Wolverines have 0 wiggle room in getting to the Playoff, let alone winning it all for the 2nd time in 3 years. Freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood has hung in there this fall, but he’s also struggled against big-time foes, and expecting anything different this Saturday would be unrealistic. Michigan’s path to the Playoff and beyond is still through its ground game, but can that ground game hold up?