The 5 biggest things that will determine the Indiana-Oregon Playoff showdown

When Indiana went into Eugene in Week 7 and ended Oregon‘s winning streak at Autzen Stadium at 18, it was viewed as a landmark victory by a burgeoning Big Ten program primed for even bigger things.

In what feels like forever ago because of where we are now, the Hoosiers were actually the lower-ranked team on the field that day, sitting at No. 7 while the Ducks were No. 3. It was Indiana’s first win over a top-5 team since taking down Purdue way back in 1967, when the rival Boilermakers were also ranked 3rd.

These Hoosiers, led by a transfer quarterback, an underappreciated defense and a brash head coach hell-bent on winning, left an indelible impression on that mid-October day. They also left the Pacific Northwest with a 6-0 record and the feel of a potentially special squad that was a little different than last season’s IU edition that stunned the sport just by making the College Football Playoff. 

Three months later, Indiana still hasn’t lost, and the Hoosiers aren’t sneaking up on anybody anymore, not as the No. 1 seed in the Playoff with a 14-0 record and that transfer QB who ended up winning the Heisman. But here comes the twist — in order to play for the national title, Indiana will have to win a semifinal rematch with Oregon on a neutral field in Atlanta on Friday night.

Can the Hoosiers keep their dream season alive? Can the 5th-seeded Ducks spoil it all and close in on their own championship dreams? Here are the 5 biggest things that will determine what goes down in this Peach Bowl showdown: 

1. Can Dante Moore hold his own in rematch with Mr. Heisman?

The great Fernando Mendoza wasn’t that great in the October victory in Eugene, going 20 of 31 for 215 yards passing with 1 touchdown and 1 interception. But he was still solid and didn’t lose the game for his team in a very hostile environment, as his 91.0 QBR that day proves. On the other hand, counterpart Dante Moore struggled mightily, throwing for only 186 yards with 1 TD, 2 dagger interceptions in the 4th quarter and a season-low 35.1 QBR as proof of exactly how he played at home on a huge stage.

Had Mendoza had a typical Mendoza 2025 afternoon, Oregon probably would’ve lost by 4 or 5 touchdowns. But he was human, throwing a pick-6 early in that 4th quarter that tied the game at 20-20. Then Mendoza promptly led a 12-play, 75-yard drive that he capped with an 8-yard touchdown pass to Elijah Sarratt, giving IU the lead back right before Moore’s costly interceptions on back-to-back possessions. A Hoosiers field goal was sandwiched between those INTs, creating the 30-20 final score, and that was the difference between winning and losing. 

Mendoza has gotten so much better since that October day, straight through to holding up the Heisman, and he’s likely going to be a lot better on Friday night. That means Moore will have to be light years better than he was in Eugene against a relentless IU defense for the Ducks to hang with the Hoosiers this time and have a chance to pull the upset. 

2. Can Will Stein figure out IU defense this time?

Before Stein heads off to Lexington to devote his full attention to rebuilding Kentucky, he’s trying to make sure Oregon’s offense does its part in a national championship push. With that Fernando Mendoza-led machine on the other sideline, Stein will have his hands full on Friday night, and he knows the Ducks’ offense has to be 100 times better than it was in the first meeting, when Oregon was held to 267 total yards and 14 first downs on its home field.

The only reason the Ducks even reached 20 points in Eugene was because of the pick-6 that Mendoza threw early in the 4th quarter, which turned out to be Oregon’s final points of the game. Dante Moore had a forgettable performance opposite Mendoza, and the Ducks only mustered 81 yards rushing, all factors in Oregon’s only loss of the season. 

Now, Stein has a shot to show exactly why Kentucky gave him a 5-year deal that starts at $5.5 million in Year 1 and ticks up every season.

3. Can Ducks’ D duplicate what it did against Texas Tech?

The fewest points Texas Tech scored in any of its 12 victories this season was 29, at home against BYU in what was then a top-10 matchup in November. That was the same Playoff-contending BYU team that the Red Raiders would blast again in the Big 12 title game, when Texas Tech put up 34 points. This was a Red Raider turbo attack that broke 40 points a staggering 8 times this season, and Oregon’s defense simply took a deep breath and shut Tech out in an Orange Bowl quarterfinal slugfest.

It was a knockout punch by the Ducks, who held the Red Raiders to 10 first downs and 215 total yards. Texas Tech had the ball for a scant 22 minutes, a nod to Oregon’s overwhelming performance. The Ducks intercepted Behren Morton twice and recovered 2 fumbles. It was a powerful defensive statement by a program that’s always been known for its high-octane offenses and finesse. 

Can Oregon even approach that level just 8 days later, against the Heisman-winning quarterback whose offense put up 30 points on the Ducks 3 months ago in Eugene? It’s a big challenge and a big ask for Tosh Lupoi’s unit.

4. Can Hoosiers dominate trenches like they did in Eugene?

It’s hard enough to win at Autzen Stadium. It’s another thing to do it while dominating the trenches, and that’s exactly what Indiana did in October. The Hoosiers only rushed for 111 yards, but they wore down the Oregon D by running it 37 times, winning the long game. That gave Indiana the edge in time of possession, which mattered a lot in the decisive 4th quarter.

The dominance was even more noticeable on defense, where Indiana sacked Dante Moore 6 times. The Ducks’ offense was only responsible for 13 points in a home setting where it normally scores at will. Oregon only managed 14 first downs, 81 yards rushing and 267 total yards, and it was continually denied on 3rd down by IU, going 3 for 14.

Championships are ultimately won in the trenches, and Indiana’s big boys up front need to keep laying the groundwork in Atlanta.

5. Can Indiana conquer a conference foe twice in same season?

We close with one that is way more mental than anything. College football rematches within the same season are rare enough and, well, it’s just really hard to beat the same team twice in such a short amount of time. And when it’s a conference foe, it can be a really tricky endeavor.

This Playoff has already provided 2 examples of this within the SEC, with Alabama and Ole Miss getting payback on Oklahoma and Georgia, respectively, after regular-season losses. Now, we’re served up another rematch in the semifinals, Big Ten style, with Indiana and Oregon hooking up again.

The Hoosiers need to break this telling rematch trend, or their national title dreams will be broken.